PGE - Polish Energy Group

Nuclear power development in Poland
- we need decision today
Hanna Trojanowska
Director of International Affairs and New Technologies
Department
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A.
Organisation of the Polish Power Sector
After Consolidation
BOT
Ł2
17%
PGE SA
L5 + RZE
Energia
Pro
26%
41%
Tauron
Dolna
Odra
29%
PGE – Polska
Grupa
Energetyczna
PKE
Stalowa
Wola
Enion
Energa
ENEA
Ostrołęka
Energa
ENEA
15%
Producer
2%
16%
11%
Kozienice
Share in generaion market
Share in dystrybution market
2
PGE - Polish Energy Group
Dolna
Odra
PGE - without
transmission assets
Turów
Belchatów
BOT
Installed capacity
11 800 MW
Electricity production
61.5 TWh
Consumers
4.9 million
Employment
43,800
Assets
11 billion USD
8 distribution
companies
Opole
Integrator
generation
distribution
3
1
Challenges for the Polish Power Sector
1. Security of electricity supply
Diversification of fuel mix
Development of interconnections and
transmission grid
2. Restrictions on SO2, NOx, CO2 emissions
3. Development of new generation sources
4. Increase in electricity generation efficiency
4
EU Green Package – The New Challenges
1. New Emission Trade Scheme (ETS) – linear
decrease of available CO2 allowances up to 21%
in 2020 compared to 2005 emissions
2. Full auctioning for electricity sector since 2013
3. 15% share of RES in final energy consumption in
2020 – target for Poland
4. Implementation of CCS technology – participation
in the EU Flagship Programme
5
Fuel Structure of Electricity Generation in
Poland
58.7%
35.0%
1.7%
2.0%
2.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Hard coal power stations and CHPs
Lignite power stations
Gas power stations
Hydro power stations (included pumped-storage)
Wind power stations
Biogas and biomass power stations
Other fuels
6
2
Age Structure of the Existing Power Plants in
Poland
7%
6%
5%
5%
16%
44%
17%
to 5 years
5-10 years
10-15 years
15-20 years
20-25 years
25-30 years
over 30 years
7
Consumption of Electricity
18000
16000
kWh per capita
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Latvia
Romania
Hungary
POLAND
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Greece
Malta
Portugal
Slovakia
Italy
Cyprus
Spain
Estonia
Ireland
Czech Rep.
Slovenia
Denmark
Gr. Britain
Netherlands
France
Austria
Germany
Belgium
Finland
Luxembourg
Sweden
0
Source: UNDP „Human Development Report 2005”
8
Nuclear Option for Poland
for Electric Power Industry”, March
2006
„Energy Policy for Poland until 2030”
Nuclear power – a component of energy security:
„Programme
Diversification
of fuel sources
CO2, SO2, NOX emissions
Least cost electricity generation
No
Lesson
learnt from „śarnowiec” NPP experience
Experience
gained from the international cooperation:
GNEP; specific support of the Polish R&D Institutes
9
3
PGE’s Studies on Nuclear Power
Programme in Poland
Economic comparison of electricity generation
technologies in Poland
Determination of the optimal scope and pace of
nuclear power development in Poland until 2030
Survey of potential sites of NPPs in Poland
Scope of necessary activities to build the first NPP in
Poland
Assessment of the legal framework for launching the
nuclear programme in Poland
The study on the public concern related to the
development of nuclear power in Poland
10
Capacities of the Existing Power Plants
After Decommissioning
50000
Available capacity [MWe]
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005
2007
Lignite
11
2009
2011
2013
Hard coal
2015
2017
Gas
2019
2021
Hydro
2023
2025
2027
CHP
2029
Demand
New capacities in the Polish Electric
Power System
Available capacity [MWe]
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Existing
Renewable
CHP
Hard coal
Gas
Nuclear
Lignite
Demand
12
4
Comparison of Electricity Generation Costs
for Various Technologies
500
474
455
431
PLN / MWh
400
354
279
300
286
270
279
368
289
283
177
155
100
Invest.
Fuel
Wind
O&M
Wind +
backup
Straw
Wood
AP1000
EPR
Natural gas
GTCC
Lignite
fluidized
Hard coal
IGCC
Lignite
pulverized
H.c.+ sludge
fluidized
Hard coal
fluidized
0
Hard coal
pulverized
Source: Energoprojekt-Katowice
200
CO2
13
Competitiveness of Nuclear Power Plants
Coal PP
Nuclear PP
Common assumptions: output 1000 MW, operating time 6 500 hours per year
Variable cost: ca. 186 mln EUR
Fixed cost: ca. 23 mln EUR
CO2 cost: ca. 171 mln EUR
Total: ca. 380 mln EUR
Variable cost: ca. 3 mln EUR
Fixed cost: ca. 88 mln EUR
CO2 cost: 0
Total: ca. 91 mln EUR
Annual difference in costs: ca. 289 mln EUR
14
Construction of NPP is Necessary to Provide
Energy Security
Macroeconomic predictions show that demand of electricity will
almost double in perspective up to 2030.
Without development of nuclear power, it will not be possible to
meet electricity demand on rational cost base complying
environmental requirements, especially in terms of CO2 reduction,
and providing energy security (including decrease in gas import
dependence).
PGE is going to participate actively in the
Polish nuclear power development programme
15
5
Nuclear Power Renaissance
Worldwide
In France (Flamanville), construction of a
Installed
nuclear Operating Units under Planned
Continent capacity
units construction units
[GW]
Europe
149
166
4
8
Asia
(including
100
137
24
72
Russia)
North
113
124
2
11
America
South
3
4
1
2
America
Africa
2
2
1
Sum
367
433
31
94
new reactor was begun.
In Finland, works on Olkiluoto Power Plant
are well advanced.
Construction of two reactors will start soon in
Bulgaria (Belene) and Romania
(Cernavoda).
Slovakia intends to develop its nuclear
potential due to increasing demand.
In Lithuania, a common investment is being
prepared in cooperation of Lithuania, Poland,
Latvia and Estonia – new power plant in
Visaginas.
The chancellor Angela Merkel stated that
current position to phase out nuclear
programme in Germany was a mistake.
Source: WNA, PRIS (IAEA), INSC, WANO
In January 2008, government of the United
Nuclear power is entering
dynamic phase of development.
16
Kingdom switched on green light to develop
nuclear power.
Russian Federal Agency for Atomic Energy –
Rosatom announced launching design works
on a new nuclear power plant in Kaliningrad
District.
Scope of Necessary Activities
1. Activities initiating nuclear power development:
Administrative, legal and regulatory activities
Organisational activities
Education and information
Studies and analyses
International cooperation
2. Preparatory work for the construction of the first
NPP
3. Investment process
4. Related activities
17
Nuclear Energy
Evolution in progress
Thank You For Your Attention
6