RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q1 2012

RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q1 2012

RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Q1 2012
Easing in global strains visible in real estate sector
•
Generally mixed results, but Brazil, Russia and
Canada see sentiment pick up alongside brighter
macro news flow
•
Struggling European economies continue to post
negative results across the board
•
Distressed sales are expected to continue rising in
over 80% of countries surveyed
Net balance, %
rents expected
to rise
Rental expectations one quarter ahead
100
75
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
50
25
0
The latest RICS Global Commercial Property Survey continues to
show stark differences in real estate markets around the world,
although in general the results for the first quarter are a little stronger
than they were following the relatively downbeat assessment given
in the final three months of 2011. The small uptick in sentiment
comes as a result of some tentative signs that the global economy is
improving, signs of an easing in eurozone tensions during the first
quarter and continued central bank support. There are, however,
less positive results in an increasing number of euro area countries
and the UK.
Occupier markets in Russia, Brazil and Canada were among the
strongest, with respondents in Russia suggesting occupier demand
is significantly outstripping new supply. A noticeably positive result
was the US, where demand for space has shot up; nearly half of
respondents indicated demand has risen, which mirrors the jobs
data coming from the US. Unsurprisingly, rental expectations were
among the highest in these countries, with the outlook also
improving in China.
-25
-50
-75
rents
expected
to fall
-100
US
Japan
UK
Net balance, %
Germany Brazil
India
UAE
HK
China
AUS
capital values
expected to rise
Capital value expectations one quarter ahead
100
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
75
50
25
Investment enquiries were increasing in the same countries
(Canada, Brazil, US), but demand was also rising in Japan,
Germany and Bulgaria. The outlook for investment activity also
improved, with a positive net balance in two thirds of the reported
countries. Subsequently, respondents expect capital values to rise at
the fastest pace in Brazil, Canada and China, with Japan and
Germany also registering strong net balance results.
In contrast, the survey does highlight some markets where
respondents are clearly concerned. On the occupier side,
fundamentals are weighing on sentiment in Spain and Greece, as
well as in Singapore, the Netherlands and France. This has led to an
increasingly negative rental outlook in these countries. Investment
demand was also weakest in these markets, but was just as soft in
Hungary and Italy. Indeed, expectations for investor appetite
returning next quarter are little better; demand is also anticipated to
be downcast in the Czech Republic and Belgium.
Capital values – which are expected to fall in over half the countries
included – are most negative in the hardest hit euro area economies
(Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy), but also Ireland and the
Netherlands. The negative sentiment prevailing in these countries is
also proving an obstacle to new development, which is falling in all
0
-25
-50
-75
capital values
expected to fall
-100
US
Japan
UK
Germany
Brazil
India
UAE
HK
China
AUS
the aforementioned markets.
Meanwhile, the expected supply of distressed property coming to
market in the next three months has risen in around two thirds of
countries. The countries where supply is expected to rise at the
fastest pace are Bulgaria, Greece and the Republic of Ireland.
Supply is anticipated to fall in Brazil, Russia and Hong Kong.
Demand for distressed assets is increasing at the fastest pace in
Portugal, Spain, India and Poland.
To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release, email: [email protected]
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Supply and Demand reported Q1
Occupier demand and Available space in Q1 ranked by net balance scores
-100
-80
-60
-40
Rus s ia
Brazil
Canada
US
Malays ia
Poland
South Africa
Japan
UAE
China
New Zealand
Germ any
India
Hong Kong
UK
Thailand
Bulgaria
Hungary
Republic of Ireland
Aus tralia
Scandinavia
Belgium
Italy
Switzerland
Portugal
Rom ania
Aus tria
Czech Republic
France
Netherlands
Singapore
Spain
Greece
Occupier dem and
Available s pace
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Development starts in Q1
Development starts in Q1 ranked by net balance scores
-100
Brazil
Canada
Malays ia
Poland
India
Thailand
US
Japan
Rus s ia
Germ any
Hong Kong
Singapore
Hungary
UAE
Aus tria
South Africa
France
New Zealand
Czech Republic
Scandinavia
Switzerland
UK
Rom ania
Aus tralia
China
Republic of Ireland
Bulgaria
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Greece
Netherlands
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Expectations for next quarter
Rental expectations for Q2 ranked by net balance scores
-100
Rus s ia
Canada
Brazil
China
Thailand
Germ any
Hong Kong
India
US
Poland
Malays ia
Czech Republic
Aus tralia
New Zealand
Japan
Scandinavia
South Africa
Aus tria
UK
Bulgaria
Switzerland
UAE
Hungary
Rom ania
France
Belgium
Republic of Ireland
Netherlands
Singapore
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Greece
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Investment enquiries in Q1
Investment enquiries in Q1 ranked by net balance scores
-100
Canada
Brazil
Japan
US
Germ any
Bulgaria
Rus s ia
Hong Kong
UAE
India
Aus tralia
South Africa
Scandinavia
Aus tria
New Zealand
Republic of Ireland
Portugal
France
Poland
Switzerland
Thailand
China
UK
Malays ia
Belgium
Rom ania
Netherlands
Czech Republic
Italy
Hungary
Spain
Singapore
Greece
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Expectations for next quarter
Capital value expectations for Q2 ranked by net balance scores
-100
Brazil
Canada
China
Japan
Germ any
South Africa
Hong Kong
Thailand
Rus s ia
India
Poland
US
Switzerland
Aus tralia
Bulgaria
Malays ia
New Zealand
UK
Scandinavia
Rom ania
Czech Republic
Aus tria
UAE
France
Belgium
Singapore
Hungary
Republic of Ireland
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Greece
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Expectations for next quarter
Expectations of investment demand for Q2 ranked by net balance
-100
Canada
Brazil
US
India
Rus s ia
UAE
Hong Kong
Rom ania
Germ any
Republic of Ireland
South Africa
Aus tria
Scandinavia
Thailand
Aus tralia
Switzerland
Japan
Bulgaria
New Zealand
China
Italy
UK
Portugal
Spain
Poland
Malays ia
France
Netherlands
Belgium
Czech Republic
Hungary
Singapore
Greece
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Country statistics - Distressed property
Difference between expected supply of distressed property next quarter and
current demand, ranked by net balance scores
-80
-60
-40
-20
Bulgaria
Republic of Ireland
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Portugal
Aus tralia
Hungary
Spain
Aus tria
UK
France
India
Rom ania
South Africa
Germ any
Expected s upply
Dem and
Czech Republic
New Zealand
UAE
Thailand
Malays ia
Poland
Scandinavia
US
Singapore
Switzerland
China
Japan
Hong Kong
Canada
Brazil
Rus s ia
0
20
40
60
80
100
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Survey details
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
RICS’ Global Commercial Property Survey is a quarterly guide to the developing trends
in the commercial property investment and occupier market.
This edition details market conditions for the first three months of
2012, based on information collected from leading international real
estate organisations and local firms.
Methodology
Survey questionnaires were sent to out on 1st March 2012, with responses received up
until the 23rd of March. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest
three months with the previous three months. A total of 865 company responses were
received, with 220 from the UK.
Responses have been amalgamated across the three real estate
sub-sectors of offices, retail and industrial property at a country level,
to form a net balance reading for the commercial market as a whole.
Contact details
This publication has been produced by RICS Economics. For economic and statistical
enquiries regarding this publication, please contact:
Matthew Edmonds
Economist
E [email protected]
T +44 (0)20 7695 1684
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Subscription information and contributor enquiries
The Global Commercial Property Survey is available from the RICS web site www.rics.org/economics along with other surveys covering the housing
market, residential lettings, commercial property, construction activity, the
farmland market and arts and antiques.
For access to city level agents’ comments and contributor details please view
the rics economics website.
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Disclaimer
This document is intended as a means for debate and discussion and should
not be relied on as legal or professional advice. Whilst every reasonable effort
has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, no warranty is made
with regard to that content. Data, information or any other material
may not be accurate and there may be other more recent material elsewhere.
RICS will have no responsibility for any errors or omissions. RICS
recommends you seek professional, legal or technical advice where
necessary. RICS cannot accept any liability for any loss or damage suffered
by any person as a result of the editorial content, or by any person acting or
refraining to act as a result of the material included.
Taking part in the RICS Global Property Survey
If you wish to participate in the quarterly survey, please email
[email protected] to register your details. Please provide
your name, company details and the location(s) you wish to cover
within the email or register online at www.rics.org/globalproperty
Become a member of RICS
If you would like to find out more about becoming a member
of RICS, please visit www.rics.org/professional
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
Parliament Square
London SW1P 3AD
RICS represents some 100,000 members worldwide. These professionals provide
expert advice on land, property, construction and the associated environmental issues.
An independent organisation, RICS acts in the public interest, upholding standards of
competence and integrity among its members and providing impartial, authoritative
advice on issues affecting business and society.
T +44 (0)20 7222 7000
F +44 (0)20 7334 3795
[email protected]
www.rics.org
RICS UK (press office)
T +44(0)20 7695 1682
[email protected]
RICS Europe
T+32(2) 733 1019
[email protected]
RICS Americas
T +1 212 847 7400
[email protected]
RICS Asia Pacific
T +852 2537 7117
[email protected]
RICS Oceania
T +61(2)92162333
[email protected]
RICS Middle East & Africa
T +971(4)375 3074
[email protected]
RICS India
T +91 124 459 5400
[email protected]