Studia Demograficzne - Polska Akademia Nauk

PL ISSN 0039–3134
POLSKA AKADEMIA NAUK
KOMITET NAUK DEMOGRAFICZNYCH
STUDIA
DEMOGRAFICZNE
NR 1/149
ROK 2006
SPIS TREŚCI
Mikołaj S z o ł t y s e k, Dowody i refutacje: wczoraj i dziś w historyczno‑­
‑demograficznych studiach nad transformacją postaw prokreacyjnych . . . . 3
Wiktoria W r ó b l e w s k a, Analiza umieralności w Polsce w latach 1970–2003.
Dekompozycja zmian w oczekiwanym trwaniu życia noworodka . . . . . . . . 28
Agnieszka F i h e l, Przestrzenny wzorzec osiedlania się cudzoziemców w Polsce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Marek K u p i s z e w s k i, Jakub B i j a k, Ocena prognozy ludności GUS 2003 z perspektywy aglomeracji warszawskiej . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Przemysław Ś l e s z y ń s k i, Imigracja do Polski w latach 1989–2002 na podstawie wyników NSP 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
RECENZJE, OPINIE, SPRAWOZDANIA
Mikołaj S z o ł t y s e k, Ponowoczesne rozterki demografii, czyli kto się boi
postmodernizmu?, opinia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Janusz Balicki, Anne Wells, Asylum Seekers’ Policy vs Integration Policy.
Case study of Kosovan Families in the East of London (2003–2005), Political Science Institute, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, London–Warsaw 2006, s. 220, recenzja Andrzej Ochocki . . . . 110
Sprawozdanie z warsztatów „Workshop on the Estimation of International
Migration in Europe: Issues, Models and Assessment”, Southampton, 28–30 września 2005, Jakub Bijak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Horiuchi Sh., Robine J.-M. (eds.), Increasing longevity: causes, trends and
prospects, “Genus”, special issue, Vol. LXI, nr 1, January-March 2005, recenzja Piotr Szukalski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
contents
Mikołaj S z o ł t y s e k, Proofs and refutations: the past and today in historical studies on transformation of fertility attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Wiktoria W r ó b l e w s k a, Mortality in Poland in the years 1970–2003. Decomposition of changes in the life expectancy at birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Agnieszka F i h e l, The spatial pattern of settlement of foreigners living in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Marek K u p i s z e w s k i, Jakub B i j a k, Evaluation
�����������������������������
of the 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Przemysław Ś l e s z y ń s k i, Immigration to Poland in the years 1989-2002 by the National Census 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Reviews and opinions
Mikołaj S z o ł t y s e k, Ponowoczesne rozterki demografii, czyli kto się boi
postmodernizmu?, opinia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Janusz Balicki, Anne Wells, Asylum Seekers’ Policy vs Integration Policy.
Case study of Kosovan Families in the East of London (2003–2005), Political Science Institute, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, London–Warsaw 2006, s. 220, recenzja Andrzej Ochocki . . . . 110
Sprawozdanie z warsztatów „Workshop on the Estimation of International
Migration in Europe: Issues, Models and Assessment”, Southampton, 28–30 września 2005, Jakub Bijak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Horiuchi Sh., Robine J.-M. (eds.), Increasing longevity: causes, trends and
prospects, “Genus”, special issue, Vol. LXI, nr 1, January-March 2005, recenzja Piotr Szukalski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Mikołaj Szołtysek
roofs and refutations: P
the past and today in historical studies on transformation of fertility attitudes The article presents discussions on transformation of fertility attitudes based
on results of studies carried out in the recent decades. The demographic
transition theory was accepted as both the well documented description of
demographic change and powerful interpretations, which constituted its explana­
tory and predictive potentials in application to social
��������������������������������
processes����������������
. However, many
micro-level and local studies on mechanisms of fertility attitudes change, carried
out in the three decades, resulted in diversified views, in general contesting not
only findings of the European
��������������������������������������������������������
Princeton Fertility Project by A Coale and his
group but also some of its assumptions. And basic questions related to fertility
transition, seemed to be already answered, are asked again. For instance,
arguments against the uniform European experience in a fertility decline are
strongly voiced while opinions about a diversity in fertility decline patterns
receive more support.
To present main streams in discussions on fertility transition the author
refers to A.MacIntyre’s concept of stages in evolution of scientific traditions
and T.S.Kuhn’s definition of a paradigm. The well grounded overview of impor­
tant studies in the field during recent 50 years shows different, incoherent
explanations of fertility change which cannot be simply referred to accumulated
findings due to rich empirical studies. That situation is named by the author as
an epistemological crisis in historical research on fertility transition. And
concerns about a new theory which would integrate these broad range of findings
can be formulated. What seems to be needed is a deeper theoretical reflection
instead of new empirical studies by use of more advanced methods.
Key words: fertility attitudes, scientific tradition, paradigm, of demographic
transition
Wiktoria Wróblewska
ortality in Poland in the years M
1970–2003. Decomposition of changes
in the life expectancy at birth
Advantageous changes in male and female mortality taken place in Poland
since the early 1990s placed the life expectancy of Poles among the highest in
the Central and Eastern Europe. However, that indicator is still far behind the
European countries which benefit from the highest life expectancies. The life
expectancy values in Poland are currently at levels observed in these countries
30 years ago for males and 20 years ago for females. A gender gap in the life
expectancy also remains high, especially in the middle-aged population.
The method proposed by E.Arriaga (1984) was used to decompose changes
in the life expectancy by age in Poland over the subsequent decades from
1970/1971 to 2003. The period before 1989 was used to show differences in
mortality changes between these two time intervals.
Disadvantageous trends in mortality among middle-aged men had been
observed in Poland as early as the mid 1970s. In the recent years (1991–2003),
beneficial shifts in mortality were observed in all age groups, resulting in the
increase in the life expectancy at birth. Results of the analysis of differences in
life expectancies by gender confirmed a significant contribution of the middleaged groups to the gender gap. Shifts in mortality are more advantageous for
women in the older age groups, which may stimulate a further growth in the
number of single old women in Poland.
Key words: mortality, decomposition of changes in the life expectancy,
gender gap in mortality
Agnieszka Fihel
he spatial pattern of settlement T
of foreigners living in Poland
The article presents the spatial distribution of foreigners living in Poland.
The data used come from the Office for Repatriations and Aliens and refer
to all foreigners who were legally residing in Poland as on 1th September 2004
(84,7 thousand persons).
The main countries of origin of immigrants are states of the former Soviet
Union (mostly Ukraine, Russia and Belarus), next countries of the Western
Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom) and finally countries of the
East-Central Europe (Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro).
Depending on a region of origin, foreigners form different spatial patterns
of settlement and show different levels of concentration, evaluated by use of
the Gini index and the Lorenz curve. Foreigners coming from the countries of
the former Soviet Union settled in all regions of Poland and did not form spatial
clusters. The degree of the spatial concentration is moderate for the citizens of
East-European states and profoundly high for the immigrants from Far East
states (above all the Vietnamese). The latter constitute ethnic enclaves in the
biggest Polish cities.
Key words: immigration, patterns of settlements, concentration
Marek Kupiszewski,
Jakub Bijak
valuation of the 2003-based
E
population forecast of the Central Statistical Office from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration
Demographic forecasts constitute an important information input for
economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas
are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims
at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for
the period 2003–2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the
capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the
demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on
particular components of population change.
Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics
in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and
structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic
events. As
�������������������������������������������������������������������
the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions,
appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With
��������������������
respect to the
model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than
the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of
migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from
Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the
opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the
(underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not
realistic.
It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the
specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important
migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According
to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident
population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office
does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic
policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and
the Warsaw agglomeration.
Key words: population forecast Poland, population projection model, input
data, Warsaw agglomeration
Przemysław Śleszyński
I mmigration to Poland in the years 1989–2002 by the National Census 2002
The article presents a detailed analysis of a spatial distribution of immigration
to Poland in the period 1989-2002 based on the data from the National Census
2002 (the data used refer to the lowest spatial disaggregation i.e. they refer to
immigrants in gminas). Despite the fact that the census data show the stock of
immigrants remarkably lower than estimates provided by several institutions,
the regional analysis reveals a spatial distribution which seems to reflect the
spatial pattern of the real immigrant population. One can also discuss reasons
behind that pattern.
According to the census data, at the end of May, 2002, there were 85,5
thousand persons who came to Poland after 1989. Among them 81.5% had
a Polish citizenship and 41.3% arrived from Germany and the USA, there­
fore one can suppose that return migration contributed remarkably to that
population.
Immigrants came to the largest and more developed metropolises: Warsaw
(11.3 thousand), Cracow (3.4), Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot (3.4), Wroclaw (2.8)
and Lodz (2.0). Altogether the main metropolitan areas concentrated 40% of
the total immigrant population.
Both immigration rates and the immigration share in the total inflow were
the highest values in gminas located at the borders and the Warsaw agglomeration.
They were also at the high level in sites considered as interested for tourists.
Key words: immigration, distribution of immigrants by regions