international investment atlas summary - Annual Review

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international
investment atlas
summary
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
2013
International Investment Atlas Summary 2013
Introduction
This report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield
to provide an introduction to the world’s key commercial
real estate investment markets in 2012 and an indication
of activity in 2013.
Istanbul – Turkey
The report provides an overview of global activity together with market
by market profiles for 51 countries. It covers the main areas of activity,
showing the size and status of each and giving a flavour for the real
estate sectors and a brief view on where each is heading.
The information used is an initial estimate made in February 2013 and
hence may be subject to change. With particular reference to investment
volumes, where the data was sourced from RCA for EMEA and the
Americas (ex USA), the data is at 13 February and for Asia Pacific and
the USA as at 19 February. The report summary refers to capital flows
incorporating all sectors, including multifamily residential and development
sites given their importance in key global markets. The individual country
pages indicate volumes excluding multifamily residential. All investment
volumes are quoted pertaining to deals of US$5 mn and above.
In addition the report contains summary global yield, investment volume
and lease term tables.
The final section of the report provides a range of contact points
for Cushman & Wakefield Research and Capital Markets globally.
For more information please see
our dedicated Investment Atlas website
www.investmentatlas.cushwake.com
1
Global investment activity
GLOBAL SUMMARY
Rio de Janeiro – Brazil
The global property investment market saw a modest 6% rise in
activity over the course of 2012, with volumes up to US$929 bn.
This estimate includes revisions made by RCA to their published
year-end numbers, prior to which the global estimate was US$907 bn,
excluding development sites in mature markets. However, the lasting
impression of this year will not be one of steady growth but rather
of an exceptionally busy year-end masking three quarters of quite
stagnant levels of performance, in what for most markets was a
difficult year. Increased seasonality has in fact been a growing feature
of the global market for some time – with 2012 seeing the third 4th
quarter spike in a row – nonetheless there is still every reason to view
these figures more positively and believe that a modest recovery is
starting to get under way.
China and the USA were two key engines of this strong finish – the
former benefiting from a record high in land right sales and the
latter seeing a rush of activity to beat year-end capital gains tax
hikes. However, growth was far from limited to these two global
heavyweights and a range of other markets in all regions saw a final
quarter rally. What is more, a true change in market confidence
and indeed momentum seems to have been confirmed in the early
months of 2013 as major global risk factors are seen to be receding
– albeit not yet disappearing.
The market to date has remained selective and focused on core.
By region, North America and developing Asia drove the overall
global rise, with mature European and Asian markets largely flat
and emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin
America all down.
Figure 1 – Global Property Investment Volumes
(all sectors)
8.2%
350
8.0%
300
7.8%
250
200
7.6%
150
7.4%
100
7.2%
50
0
7.0%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Investment Volume Q1 10
Q1 11
Q1 12
Yield (ex mulitfamily)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data (Deals over US$5 mn including land)
2
All-sector average prime yield
Quarterly Investment Volumes (US$ bn)
400
By country, the USA and Mexico were the biggest gainers in the
Americas; in Asia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand
enjoyed the strongest expansion; and in Europe, Finland, Norway,
Switzerland and Ireland saw the highest growth rates. Additionally,
the more marginal increases in big markets like China, Germany
and Hong Kong were also clearly instrumental in delivering growth
at the global level.
The global property investment market saw a modest
6% rise in activity driven by a strong final quarter
Finance shortages are less a handicap to the market than they were,
albeit they are also not yet sufficiently reversed to actually encourage
activity in some areas, most notably Europe. Uncertainty due to new
regulations such as Solvency II has not helped the banks of course, many
of which are still seeking to cut their real estate exposure, but a steady
flow of new players are entering the market, such as funds and insurance
companies and there have also been renewed CMBS raisings in the USA.
Stock shortages remain a more noted barrier to activity although
some improvement is being seen thanks to bank restructuring and
deleveraging which is still led by the US and the UK but with a growing
contribution from other markets. This is now producing further
opportunities, albeit still of a very much controlled flow of product and
not a flood, at least with respect to real estate loans or assets of any
quality. In addition, developers have also been a major source of stock
as have corporates, although less so than in 2011 and less than might
have been expected. In fact, some companies are putting capital back
into their real estate as they look for safe ways to use their cash pile.
Overall, investment demand remains more robust than supply,
with cross border players key to this interest. These and other core
investors have in general stayed focused on a small number of the
largest and most liquid markets. Indeed, with plenty still to worry
about economically and politically in many areas, investors stayed
very alert to danger throughout 2012.
New York – USA
In most aspects of market performance, the Americas are leading
and EMEA is lagging behind, with Asia somewhere in between. The
Americas saw stronger investment activity, a bigger contraction in
yields and more positive rental growth. Asia was more stable, with a
good start to 2012 partly offset by falls later in the year, while EMEA
clearly bore the brunt of the market slowdown.
However, by the year-end we were seeing the first signs that some
were ready to increase their risk tolerance, a trend initiated by US
investors. An increasing number of opportunistic buyers are also
now getting busier looking at the assets being offloaded by banks.
According to RCA, 13% of all deals came from distressed property,
up from 8% in the previous two years.
The Americas share of global trading rose to 32% from 2011’s 28%,
while EMEA slipped to 21% (from 24%). Asia remained the largest
global trading block, accounting for 47% of market activity, down
from 48% in 2011. Interestingly, this investment landscape remains a
domestically driven picture. Among cross border players, Europe is
the biggest target market, attracting 51% of capital, up from 45% in
2011. By contrast Asia speaks for 31% of cross border investment
and the Americas 18% - down from 20% in 2011.
However, while the dominant trends of 2013 to date include a talk
of recovery, increased confidence and moving up the risk curve,
there is a possibility of overhyping secondary markets too early – or
at least oversimplifying what makes a property or location secondary
and underestimating risk as a result. As ever, following what tenants
want will be the key to successful investment.
Meanwhile, occupier markets were clearly a lot more cautious in
2012, resulting in slower demand and rental falls in some areas.
However, the overall low supply levels have been key in supporting
all regions; indeed, while rents did reverse in some areas later in
2012, growth for the year was broadly positive. Retail tended to be
the best performing sector and the Americas the best performing
region in all sectors, typically led by South America ahead of the USA
and Canada.
To date this recovery, and the improving economic confidence
behind it, have more resonance with the investment than the
occupier market.
FIGURE 2 – TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET IN 2012
(rent and yield excluding multifamily)
Change in Investment (%pa)
Prime Yield Change (bp)
Prime ERV Growth (%pa)
25%
15%
9%
20%
10%
8%
15%
5%
7%
10%
5%
-5%
5%
4%
-10%
0%
-5%
-10%
Americas EMEA
APAC
3%
-15%
2%
-20%
1%
-25%
0%
Americas Europe APAC
Prime yields are under pressure to fall, even though prime rents in
many markets are some way from delivering any growth, and in
second-tier areas rents and occupancy have further to fall. Indeed,
occupancy generally was down last year although as with investment,
a number of global markets had a better end to the year than had
been expected.
Signs of better global economic sentiment are in many ways most
relevant to occupier trends, however, because of their potential to
restart corporate investment. Although many tenants remain cost
conscious, more are ready to think about re-examining their space
needs. As a result, even though net expansion will remain low in the
months ahead, more global leasing activity is likely, and this will be
the primary indication that a sustained investment market recovery
has begun.
6%
0%
REGIONAL TRENDS
FIGURE 3 – CROSS BORDER INVESTMENT
BY REGION (2012)
North America
APAC
Latin America
EMEA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Investment share in 2012
Americas Europe APAC
Domestic Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data (Deals over US$5 mn)
Cross border
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data (Deals over US$5 mn)
3
GLOBAL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
Prime yields similarly had a varied story to tell over the year.
Although initially still under downward pressure in some areas in
early 2012, they began to rise as global tensions increased and
then quickly stabilised by the year end, with some even starting to
compress in some areas such as parts of the US and UK markets.
These yield pressures could well mount on trophy assets in early
2013 but as noted interest is also starting to develop in secondary
markets. As a result, the yield gap at least for better quality
secondary space should soon stabilise.
Global capital flows have been dominating the market, most notably
from North American funds but with a very diverse base including
rising Far and Middle Eastern interest as well as more European
purchasers. However, at the global level, the market share of foreign
players actually slipped slightly, from 16.7% to 16.3% as domestic
players were slightly more active. Indeed, as noted, the story of
foreign investor dominance is more a European story than an Asian
or American one. While cross border investment rose 17% to 39%
of the market in EMEA, in Asia and the Americas it dropped (by 9.1%
and 4.7% respectively) and accounted for only around 10% of trading.
Auckland – New Zealand
4
This however underplays the role of foreign capital, as much is
being deployed by local REITs and funds and thus may not be seen
locally as ‘foreign’. What is more, big international funds as well as
international family offices and high-net-worth individuals are a
crucial area of growth in future demand, attracted by the stable
and typically growing income profile of the property sector.
To date the move of global pension funds has been led by Canadian
and Far Eastern money but Australian funds are becoming more
important as pension allocations there are raised further. An
increasing number of Far Eastern and Central Asian pension and
Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) players will also be looking to go
global, and more Chinese funds will also add to the weight of market
capital in the short-term.
Family offices and high-net-worth individuals are also crucial to
global demand and represent a very diverse group coming from all
corners of the globe. Most adopt a ‘safety first’ approach as long
term players, favouring high-quality trophy assets in gateway cities
across a broadening lot size range.
While Europe will remain a key target for all of these groups, other
mature global markets such as Australia and the USA are seeing
increased demand. Interest in prominent emerging markets is also
growing, notably among SWFs, and particularly where these markets
can offer improving levels of transparency. As in mature markets,
joint ventures are an increasingly popular entry route to help
alleviate risk and ensure an alignment of interest with local partners.
Big equity players are at an advantage in closing such JV deals due
to the demands of partners and lenders for well capitalised and
qualified sponsors.
However, as noted, while still challenging, finance markets are
somewhat easier than they have been for some time, with marked
improvements in the USA and signs of better times ahead elsewhere.
Borrowing above US$100 mn can still be difficult, but more banks are
now willing to lend on larger lots if the deal is right.
SECTOR TRENDS
London – United Kingdom
Sector trends were broadly stable last year, with multifamily the
main area to see some gains, rising most notably in the Americas
but also acquiring market share in EMEA as well. Offices remain
larger as an investment sector, at 24% versus 15% for retail and
12.5% for multifamily, although development sites is the biggest
sector overall, accounting for 38.8% of investment last year.
Office demand has been solid despite a weaker occupational market
in some areas. The sector is increasingly viewed on a global scale as
buyers look towards gateway cities and consider the positive supply
fundamentals.
Retail investment demand has also been generally good but activity
has been held back by stock shortages in many areas. The sector is
seeing healthy tenant interest in Asia if somewhat more subdued in
line with economic trends, while US markets are bottoming out.
In general, Europe remains a weaker market with plenty of
restructuring to come, but cross border, luxury and flagship
demand in top pitches and cities is strong while emerging markets
Russia and Turkey are set to perform well.
Industrial warehousing markets are holding up in most areas, at least
in terms of demand for modern space as supply chains are adapted
and retail growth in areas such as Asia generates new demand.
Figure 4 – Sector Share of Global Trading
Cushman & Wakefield advised the US Department of State on the sale of their existing London Embassy building and the acquisition of a site to construct a new embassy.
We are now retained as Development Managers for the new Embassy building in the Nine Elms Opportunity Area of London.
50%
% of total new investment
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Offices
2008 Retail
2009 Industrial
Multifamily
2010 Hospitality
2011 Development
Sites
Low supply is also a boost in a number of regions such as Europe,
while in parts of North America new construction is starting in
response to demand. As a result, a wide range of US markets
around major cities could perform well this year.
Hotel investment demand is good, with volumes boosted by activity
in the Americas where finance availability is improved and
opportunities exist via asset or loan purchases. Asia and Europe
where held back by stock and finance shortages.
The multifamily sector was strong in 2012, led by the USA where
sales exceeded that in the office sector. China had a stable year, at
least for high end unit sales, while some other parts of Asia – notably
Hong Kong and Singapore – were hit by policy measures aimed at
slowing the market. Much of Europe was also subdued, held back
by fragile demand and weak prices, but many locations in Germany
as well as London witnessed robust conditions.
Retail investment demand has also been generally
good but activity has been held back by stock
shortages in many areas
2012
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data
5
Investment Targets
Figure 5 – Top 20 Investment Targets
US$ bn pa
0
50
100
150
200
250
China
USA
UK
300
350
The top countries for investment were little changed from last year:
eight of the top 20 are now in Asia, compared with 10 in Europe and
two in the Americas. China remained the largest global investment
market overall thanks to the surge in land sales seen in late 2012.
Nevertheless, the US began to close the gap, with investment rising
to 88% of the Chinese level compared with 75% in 2011. Similarly
Germany is closing in on the UK in third place, rising from 66% of UK
investment levels in 2011 to 81% last year.
Concerning investment by city, New York remained the number one
target last year, attracting US$41.3 bn into real estate, a 14.4%
increase on 2011. London remained firmly in second place, up 8%,
while Los Angeles, Tokyo and San Francisco rounded out the top
five. Among cross-border investors, however, London is very much
top, with Paris second, New York third, Tokyo fourth and Sydney
fifth. By sector, New York is the top global market for multifamily
and hotels, while London is first for offices, Hong Kong for retail, LA
for industrial and Shanghai for development land.
Germany
Japan
Hong Kong
Australia
Canada
The concentration of investment in the top cities once again
increased slightly in 2012 as investors remained focused on the
biggest and the best markets. In total, 43.7% of all investment was
targeted at the top 50 cities, up marginally from 43% in 2011. What’s
more, the targeted cities were largely unchanged over the year, with
45 of the top 50 remaining the same. Three of the new names on the
top 50 list are US cities, indicating that US players have started to
spread their net more widely in search of opportunities. Overall, 25
of the top 50 cities are North American, up from 22 in 2011; 12 are in
Asia, up from 11 in 2011; and finally, the EMEA quota dropped from
17 to 13, with stressed European targets such as Madrid and Milan
dropping out.
France
Singapore
Sweden
Taiwan
Norway
South Korea
Russia
Denmark
New York remained the number one target last year,
attracting US$41.3 bn into real estate, a 14.4% increase.
Among cross-border investors, however, London
is very much top, with Paris second, New York third
Switzerland
Netherlands
Poland
Figure 6 – Top 20 CITY Investment Targets
(excluding development sites, by greater city area)
US$ bn pa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New York
London
Los Angeles
Tokyo
San Francisco
Hong Kong
Paris
Washington
Chicago
Seattle
Houston
Dallas
Singapore
Boston
Berlin
Miami
Sydney
Toronto
Atlanta
Seoul
India
2011 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield and RCA (Deals over US$5 mn)
6
2011 2012
Source: Cushman & Wakefield and RCA (Deals over US$5 mn)
40
45
Although Asia Pacific’s regional economy may have outperformed
others, momentum slowed in the second half of the year.
Additionally, risk aversion among investors was heightened on
the back of persisting global uncertainty, and combined with tighter
policies aimed largely at the residential market, this held back
investment for much of the year.
However as in other areas, the market ended the year on a high,
with volumes up in a range of locations including China, Hong Kong,
Indonesia, India and Australia.
Beijing – China
Office markets did weaken more by the year-end as slower
economic growth hit occupier demand. Nevertheless, confidence is
anticipated to return as the economy starts to find its feet, and rents
should bottom out in the months ahead on the back of tighter supply
markets helping to stimulate growth. Strong demand from IT the
sector, including other IT-enabled services (ITeS), as well as business
process outsourcing (BPO) will benefit markets in India and the
Philippines in particular, while good logistics demand is expected
in a range of areas.
Figure 7 – APAC Property Investment Volumes
160
7.0%
140
6.9%
6.8%
120
6.7%
100
6.6%
80
6.5%
60
6.4%
6.3%
40
6.2%
20
Overall investment in the Asia-Pacific region came to US$437.6 bn in
2012, an increase of 3.7% over 2011. Foreign investment accounted
for 10.9% of the total, compared with 12.4% in 2011. Development
sites represented the majority of investment at 72.7%, with offices
the most invested sector for completed stock at 11.5% of the total.
However retail, hospitality and development sites all saw investment
rise last year while offices, industrial and multifamily all experienced
falls. Courtesy of its dominance in the land sales sector, China is
the key regional market, accounting for 69.5% of 2012 Asian activity.
Japan is the second largest market at 7.9% of the total.
Weaker activity in previous months did not have much impact on
yields, with rental stability in core markets generally helping to
support capital pricing. Although there were contractions in rental
values in some locations – such as Singapore’s office sector primarily
due to a retrenchment of global banks –the overall trend proved
quite robust. The market in 2012 was nonetheless increasingly
diverse by location and sector, with retail generally stronger than
offices. Further, there were signs of a rebalancing in economic
activity towards domestic demand over investment and export-led
growth, suggesting that this trend may continue so long as labour
market strength supports consumer confidence. International
retailer demand is increasing, favouring key Chinese cities, most
notably Beijing as well as Shanghai, but also regional capitals in
emerging countries, such as Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.
Quarterly investment volumes (US$ bn)
ASIA PACIFIC
6.1%
0
6.0%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 11
Q1 12
Yield (ex multifamily)
As in many areas, while debt markets have been impacted by
regulatory changes, they have nonetheless grown more competitive,
with margins edging down and LTVs stable at circa 50-60% on
non-development stock. Indeed, while this is a less debt reliant
region overall, gaps left in the market left by the withdrawal of
some European lenders were quickly filled by regional players
Risks will of course remain, including some areas witnessing
territorial disputes, but a relaxed monetary environment will
continue to boost Asian property markets in 2013. Yields are close
to record lows in certain locations, but further compression may be
seen given that spreads to bonds are still at a relative historic high.
However, moderate growth is expected to be the new norm for
both the economy and the real estate market.
Overall investment in the Asia-Pacific region
came to US$437.6 bn in 2012, an increase of 3.7%
over 2011
7
EMEA
The EMEA region had a strong end to 2012, with volumes rising
30.7% to US$59.8 bn in Q4 over Q3, but despite this, annual totals
were relatively flat, falling 0.3% in euro terms to €150.5 bn but falling
5.5% in US$ to US$196 bn. Trends were however far from uniform
across the region, with core Western markets up but peripheral
and some Eastern markets down. Furthermore, while domestic
investment fell 15.8%, international buying rose 16.7% to US$76.8 bn,
with investment from outside Europe particularly strong, led by major
sovereign wealth and pension funds attracted to low risk markets
offering relatively high real yields.
Of the main sectors, offices had the best year, increasing 4.8%
and winning market share from retail and industrial. Multifamily
also performed well, with volumes rising 29.7% to give the sector
an 11.7% market share, driven by increased activity in Germany
followed by the UK. The hotels sector lost market share but
has seen strong foreign demand for top quality product with
Middle East buyers the most active among overseas players,
focusing on London, Paris, Amsterdam and the top German cities.
Occupational markets generally grew more cautious last year
although prime rent levels largely held firm due to supply constraints
and they carried on rising in some areas – notably core high streets.
Figure 8 – EMEA Property Investment Volumes
7.6%
7.4%
100
7.2%
80
7.0%
60
6.8%
6.6%
40
6.4%
20
6.2%
0
6.0%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 11
Q112
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data (Deals over US$5 mn)
8
120
The first half of this year will remain weak but somewhat improved,
with growth picking up slowly in the second half but with peripheral
markets still lagging behind.
Istanbul – Turkey
Last year the real fear that the euro zone may break up and the
unknown consequences of this led to a lack of activity but the ECB's
actions in committing to unlimited bond purchasing calmed the
markets nerves, opening the way to the improvement in activity seen
in the final quarter. Of course this is only the start of a solution at
best with difficult decisions ahead on joint policy and in the need for
fiscal transfers between north and south. However at least it is a
start in the right direction which has been welcomed by the markets.
Challenges in the short term will come from elections as well as the
social pressures of high unemployment and hence it is clear that
policies to deliver growth not just stability will be looked for.
Hence while we have entered the year with better confidence
and momentum, the macro backdrop will keep people focused
on core assets and generally on north and west Europe.
Bad debt is being tackled perhaps more rapidly than some expected
with loan and real estate owned (REO) sales totalling €21.7 bn in 2012,
a significant increase on the €8.8 bn traded in 2011, with a tendency
still toward larger portfolios but a wider range of transaction sizes
emerging which will benefit market liquidity. Progress is not uniform
market by market, with 90% of last year’s deals concentrated on
just four countries – UK, Ireland, Germany and Spain. To date this
is not enough to satisfy some would-be buyers but an acceleration in
offerings and activity is likely over the next two years and Cushman
& Wakefield forecast at least €25 bn being traded this year. The
quality of what is offered may deteriorate however – with many of
the better assets already traded – but the breadth of product should
increase, with Iberia likely to be much busier for example with
Spain’s ‘bad bank’, SAREB, not the answer to the countries problems
on its own but certainly a sign of more action to come.
Lending availability is still tighter than elsewhere but it is improving,
led by the UK and helped by ECB action. While regulatory pressures
are forcing the banks to clear up bad debt problems, it is also
deterring some from new lending, particularly outside their
domestic market. More banks are nonetheless open to new lending
than previously, albeit at increased margins and typically on prime
stock, and new sources of funding are steadily moving forward.
Core markets have been and will remain most in demand, focusing
on retail in major German cities as well as London and Paris, plus
offices in cities like Munich and London. But while prime yields are
still attractive on an absolute and relative basis for some, there is
also increasing recognition that parts of secondary or second tier
markets may be of interest. Indeed, opportunistic players are circling
lower and lower, although debt is a preferred entry route for some
at present.
In the Middle East and Africa, confidence improved in some areas
despite obvious setbacks elsewhere, partly in areas like UAE which
benefit due to relative stability as well as increased tourism, but also
in areas like Egypt as investors consider longer term reconstruction
and growth.
LATIN AMERICA
Global woes were clearly impacting on sentiment and activity in
Latin America last year, with volumes down 51% to US$5.4 bn, driven
by weaker foreign and domestic demand. Foreign buying fell slightly
less than domestic activity however (46% vs 53%), resulting in a slight
rise in foreign buyers market share to 27.9% from 25.2% in 2011.
Geographically, Mexico was the only major exception to this, with
volumes rising 80% to their highest since the market peak in 2007.
Across the region, offices also bucked the trend, witnessing 52%
growth and taking a 39% market share compared to just 12.5% last
year. Retail was down 52% but its market share was at least stable
at around 31% (considerably ahead of the previous five years average,
underlining investors’ long-term interest in this segment). Logistics
and multifamily both lost ground to offices while hospitality saw its
market share climb to 15% (from 7.8% in 2011) even though the actual
volume invested declined.
Mexico’s growth story in 2012 was helped by a firming economy
as well as high regional yields and a better availability of affordable
finance, but also by increased domestic pension fund demand as
they enter the real estate market. Labour market and education
reforms will be a further boost to economic and market
performance in the future.
Figure 9 – Latin America
Property Investment Volumes
11.1%
10.9%
4
10.7%
10.5%
3
10.3%
2
10.1%
9.9%
1
5
Brazil meanwhile was relatively quiet over the year as a whole
but did end 2012 on a stronger note and macro economics are
supportive of the market, with retailer like for like store sales
rising strongly and vacancy rates generally low.
Salvador – Brazil
While the region has slowed in response to global and some local
concerns, it has not collapsed in the way it might have done in
previous cycles, with volume picking up by the year-end. What is
more the macro stability of most of these markets is much improved
and it is their links to the international economy, in terms of US
and global resource demand in particular, which has dictated much
of the easing in demand last year but which will also help underpin
a more robust picture in the year to come alongside reviving
domestic consumption.
This will feed into an expanding property investment market led by
a growing stock of modern stock due to new development as well
as greater public and institutional demand and more foreign interest.
The main cities of Mexico and Brazil are seeing demand for new high
quality space in all sectors and development is increasing as a result,
with new office completions rising in most major cities but vacancy
still often trending down. Foreign investment is also boosting
construction in the industrial and logistics sector, particularly in
Mexico. With consumer confidence remaining quite robust, the
retail sector remains very active across the region, with incoming
and growing domestic retailers faced with a shortage of modern
supply despite high levels of new shopping centre development in
many areas.
In the residential sector, population growth, urbanisation,
increased wealth and access to mortgage finance (albeit down
on previous years) will continue to boost demand for housing
while public policies in most countries will also promote more
activity, particularly for low-income housing.
Mexico saw volumes rising 80% to their highest
since the market peak in 2007
9.7%
0
9.5%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 11
Q112
9
Canada enjoyed a very a strong year in 2012 and is expected to
see another in 2013. Indeed, a combination of strong investment
demand, low borrowing costs and very robust market fundamentals
resulted in record-low vacancy in both the office and residential
sectors, as well as historic lows for industrial availability and record
sales turnovers in the retail market. Foreign investment represented
less than 5% of the market last year, however, and despite obvious
attractions for international capital, the highly competitive nature
of the market means it is relatively closed to foreign capital unless
partnered with a very credible local player.
New York – USA
As bidding for best in class assets became ever more competitive
early last year and yields hardened to pre-recession lows in some
cases, investors began moving up the risk curve. Thus, while capital
markets remain focused on quality, there has been a slow drift
away from blue chip gateway cities towards top assets with durable
near-term cash flows in secondary locations, supported by the more
plentiful supply of financing and the return of the CMBS market.
The improvement in the market has, however, become increasingly
unequal, with for example shopping malls and industrial picking up
as improvements in earlier recovery sectors – namely multifamily
and offices – slowed down. It was also unequal across the year,
with tenant demand rising in early 2012 but faltering later in the
year as uncertainty mounted.
Credit availability is considerably improved, helped by receding
delinquencies. Life insurance companies are very active in providing
new debt, as are some US banks. A rising CMBS market is also
buoying availability, with a 50% increase in originations last year.
Corporate raising has also been popular for the REITs given the
low level of interest rates.
Looking towards 2013, slow growth is forecast with ‘fiscal cliff’
cutbacks deterring stronger activity until the second half of the year.
Consumer spending and overall expansion should then accelerate
into 2014, given improving private sector job growth. Against this
backdrop, real estate investors are becoming more aggressive, with
stronger debt and equity flowing into the sector in 2013 as the US
registers better growth and pricing than other mature Western
markets. However, financing remains challenging for ‘mega’
transactions over US$500 mn.
10
Figure 10 – North America
Property Investment Volumes
180
8.0%
160
140
7.5%
120
100
7.0%
80
60
6.5%
40
Thanks to the strongest year-end quarter since 2007, North
American volumes rose 23% last year to hit US$290.4 bn,
31% of the global market compared with 27% in 2011.
In the USA, RCA’s latest estimate is that volumes rose to US$250 bn
excluding development sites. Although the multifamily market
remained particularly strong, the retail market managed to outperform
other sectors through healthy investment demand and activity levels
in certain key segments. Top gateway cities have been in high demand,
all helped by the burgeoning tourist market benefiting from the weaker
dollar. As the US office markets continue to be driven by technology,
healthcare and energy sectors, those reliant on finance or government
sectors are increasingly seeing more restrained demand.
NORTH AMERICA
20
0
6.0%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 11
Q1 12
Multifamily is the sector in highest demand, resulting in increasing
construction activity. Office investors are widening their target
markets to consider prime assets in an expanding list of secondary
markets. On the other hand, the retail and industrial markets are
experiencing cap rate compression, and thus industrial yields for
these remain above those in other sectors. With yields flattening
in the multifamily and prime office sectors while compressing in
secondary markets, the prime-secondary spread has peaked and
will narrow in the months ahead.
The principal buyers in 2013 will be REITs, institutional and foreign
investors, particularly from Canada, the Middle East and Asia. REITs
and institutions will also be represented on the sell-side as they
rebalance their portfolios. Owners who bought at peak values
with impending debt maturities will be looking for recapitalizations.
Market fundamentals are strongest for multifamily and prime
office in gateway markets, followed by prime retail and industrial in
California. Secondary office markets remain oversupplied. Particular
hotspots include technology sector submarkets in San Francisco,
New York and Boston, as well as the commodity-driven markets in
Houston and Denver. However, these markets are so heterogeneous
that any ‘averages’ are masking very divergent performances
between the ‘have’ and ‘have not’ markets, with the latter trading
at historically high spreads to the primary markets.
•The importance of logistics is increasing in a virtual world but
Vancouver – Canada
also changing due to technology, infrastructure adjustments and
social pressures. Smart manufacturing and robots will also lead
to long-term shifts in manufacturing and logistics concerning the
scale and location of facilities, as well as their design and role and
thus value in the business cycle.
•Structural drivers will be crucial for investment and finance in
MACRO POSITION
While the outlook remains uncertain, the chances of a disorderly
euro zone default appear to have faded, and consequently a ‘muddle
through’ now seems more likely. Global risks remain of course,
including the US ‘fiscal cliff’, emerging market demand and
uncertainty in the Middle East. Moreover, it is clear that recession
risks will continue in some markets with occasional scares and
political tension. However, while the economic recovery may remain
ponderous, it does at least look set to have more momentum and
thus should throw off more confidence to corporates and investors.
As a result, so long as business decision making does restart, this low
growth environment will not necessarily penalise tenanted property;
rather, its yield premium to bonds will remain attractive, and it will
offer some upside as and when economic growth does strengthen.
When the market does normalise of course, bond rates will
increase, and this will impact on property, albeit perhaps not
immediately given the buffer in property yields relative to bonds.
What is more, stimulus measures (relaxed monetary policy and
QE) will continue to boost demand and confidence, as well as
impact on investment and development in some areas.
Possibly the two key themes for the coming year will therefore
be increased macro stabilisation together with abundant liquidity.
However, perhaps the deciding theme for the year overall will be
an improvement in the business cycle, which should be more
marked by year end.
particular as Solvency II, Basel III and the EU’s Alternative
Investment fund management directive impact on the level and
style of market demand. At the same time, mobile working and
e-tailing are having a more significant affect on retail and office
working styles, while energy costs are the primary drivers of
sustainability issues for now, although resource shortages –
including water – are long-term threats.
A number of other possible macro trends may also be worth
following:
•Specifically within the property sector, much of the property
stock is not fit for purpose in a changing world, which poses
threats as well as redevelopment and repositioning opportunities.
Equally the role of property in delivering value is also changing –
note the increased importance of retail property as part of the
marketing and brand, for example.
•Currency wars look likely to continue at a low level, but also
an increasing focus may emerge on new currency areas, higher
yielding currencies or ones more likely to retain value over time
such as the Chinese Renminbi, Singapore Dollar, Korean Won
or Mexican Peso.
•Finally, it is worth noting that technological change and
•Further merger and acquisition activity is likely as a route to
advancements will increasingly drive business change, generating
winning companies and sectors but also new ways in which
property is used and occupied.
expansion, accessing stock, increasing market power or cutting
costs. This will lead to asset opportunities as well as occupational
portfolio restructuring. More capital raisings are also likely as
REITs and other companies take advantage of market conditions
to raise capital.
TABLE 1 – INVESTMENT VOLUMES (Including development sites and multifamily, assets over US$5 mn)
Volumes in 2012 2013 Outlook
2012
US$ bn
Change
on 2011
% of
2007 peak
2013
US$ bn
Change
on 2012
Europe – West
Europe – Central & East
Middle East Latin America
North America
Developing Asia
Mature Asia Pacific
179.0
15.1
1.1
5.4
290.4
314.5
123.1
-0.2%
-21.6%
-65.2%
-51.4%
22.9%
5.9%
-1.3%
51%
56%
19%
54%
51%
264%
79%
186.2
16.4
1.3
6.2
341.2
361.7
147.7
4%
9%
25%
15%
18%
15%
20%
Global
929.3
6.0%
75%
1,060.7
14%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
RCA data relates to all deals over US$5 mn, as of 19 Feb 2013 for US and Asian data and 13 Feb 2013 for all other markets
11
OUTLOOK
Fuelled by increased allocations to property by institutions and
high-net-worth individuals/families, as well as increased stock
coming to the market, investment volumes are likely to pick-up
further in 2013. C&W are forecasting a 14% increase to yet again
reach above US$1 tn for the first time since 2007, led by North
America and Asian markets. Moreover, there is a growing consensus
that we are past the worst for the risk cycle and that 2013 risks are
weighted towards the earlier part of the year. This may be wishful
thinking, but if true, it will support a more marked pick-up in
confidence and thus activity later this year.
In terms of values, a demand for liquidity as well as low interest rates
and risk will maintain investor interest for secure income-producing
assets. As a result, prime yields could fall in the most sought-after core
markets. Secondary yields for the best will peak, but increased supply
– from investors taking profits to recycle, terminating funds and of
course banks – will be integral to the market’s prospects in 2013,
generating activity but also pushing down secondary asset pricing.
On the occupier side, demand will remain cautious but should steadily
improve for modern space. Cost control and consolidation will be
central to decision making although activity and interest in expansion
strategies will grow, such as international retailers aggressively targeting
expansion into certain emerging markets. Thus while the rental
recovery has been deferred and secondary has further to fall, Grade A
rents should see selective increases in 2013 due to falling supply.
The USA should be a favoured market in 2013 despite ongoing
political and fiscal uncertainties. Occupational demand may still only
be in the foothills of a recovery, but an improving economy and debt
market, low vacancy and high liquidity auger well for investment
demand and market performance. As a result, a 15-20% increase
in investment activity is forecast, alongside modest cap rate
contraction, both led by the best second-tier markets and a steady
normalisation in occupational markets and hence some rental
growth. While yields are likely to flatten out for already low cap rate
markets, there will be further compression in the higher cap rate
markets, such as suburban offices and industrial areas, as debt
availability is boosted by an upturn in CMBS issuance.
Canada also looks set for stronger activity in 2013 based on capital
raised and unspent institutional allocations. Supply shortages and
solid demand will generate further rental growth, driven by offices at
least until development completions increase in 2014, while pent up
demand for quality assets is likely to force further yield compression.
Latin America has high levels of capital raised in 2012 to feed into
direct property this year. As a result, and a roughly 15% rise in
volumes is forecast, with Mexico perhaps the star performer. Brazil
will however see plenty of the spotlight, with its secondary markets,
industrial and event-driven infrastructure (the port region in Rio
and Olympic and Soccer World Cup linked areas) providing most
growth. Performance in the region will largely come from increasing
occupancy and new development following recent rental increases
that have left some markets looking expensive. Rental expansion is
TABLE 2 – Value Changes in the Global Market
Europe – West
Europe – Central & East
Middle East Latin America
North America
Developing Asia
Mature Asia Pacific
Global
Change in Yields (bp)
Relative
to 2011
Relative
to last peak
Relative
to 2012
Relative
to 2011
Relative
to 2012
9
13
-3
-16
-27
-8
-5
100
57
86
50
14
-75
-12
-10
-5
-5
-50
-15
-15
-20
1.2%
2.2%
0.5%
11.2%
4.3%
6.9%
4.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1.5%
5.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2.0%
-6
23
-15
4.7%
4.5%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Note: Middle East rental growth and yields for offices only. Other regions are all-sector excluding multifamily. Rental levels referred to are face rents.
12
Change in Face rents
20122013
therefore expected to slow to around 5%, but yield compression will
add to capital performance.
In Asia Pacific, improved macroeconomic conditions with sustainable
growth across the region will boost activity and performance. Export
performance will grow, helped by infrastructure investment, policy
alignment and fiscal and monetary stimulus, and this will aid both
employment and consumption growth. This will benefit market
values in general, with yields compressing and modest rental growth.
Yield spreads will draw more capital into the market, particularly in
cities such as Sydney, Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur where the spread is
higher. However while modest compression is forecast in some areas
this year, notably retail, yields will also be vulnerable once bond yields
start to rise given the income sensitivity of many Asian buyers.
Investment demand will increase as faith grows in China’s soft landing,
but demand will also broaden. Indeed, other markets such as Australia
and Japan will increasingly become targets for overseas investors, while
markets such as India and Indonesia are likely to be on the rise.
Long-term trends such as urbanisation and the increasing middle class
will add to demand to access a range of sectors including residential,
especially in Chinese cities as well as higher growth markets as
Indonesia and Vietnam.
European market trends will be yet more polarised: the world will
not end but European property markets will be bouncing along the
bottom for some time. The second half of the year will be an
improvement, however, as a slow increase in activity occurs on the
back of business and investor need or their ability to act on decisions.
Availability will rise as occupiers downsize, consolidate and look to
save costs, shedding weaker space and pushing up secondary voids.
However, while secondary rents will remain weak, prime values
should either be stable or be moderately up due to better tenant
demand and limited supply in many areas. At the same time, European
prime yields will come under modest downward pressure as buying
demand remains focused on the best. Interest in secondary markets
is likely to steadily grow, although with finance still limited for this
market, yields are likely to remain elevated.
European investment activity is likely to remain subdued in the short
term by the lack of quality product and affordable financing. However,
signs indicate that, with more stock released by the banks combined
with public sector and corporate owners, this should be a source of
greater activity in 2013, with a modest rise of 5% currently forecast.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
The property market is being forced to reinvent itself, particularly
in more mature markets, and while largely profitable and frequently
with cash piles to spend, businesses are focusing ever more on the
bottom line – and property has to be part of that, contributing to
a firm’s drive for efficiency, productivity gains and cost savings.
In many cases this translates into a desire to occupy less space but
frequently also a desire to occupy different space. As a result, even
with slower net growth in most global regions, there is demand for
new modern space in the most business friendly and sustainable
locations. This is both a threat and an opportunity for property
investors as well as developers depending on the sort of stock
they hold and the intensity of their management.
The office market may see similar trends to last year in terms of
steady if selective growth and a more stable performance from
high-growth markets. Banks may continue to hand back space in
many areas, but confidence should still be improving as the year
progresses. However, while the office cycle is promising in many
areas, investors must be alert to falling aggregate demand due
to new working practices, rising competitions, a search for greater
productivity and changing technology. Increased corporate
exploitation of social media will accelerate these changes in the
medium term.
Figure 11 – Global PROPERTY
Investment by Region
Annual investment volumes (US$ bn)
1400
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
EMEA 2009
2010
2011
2012
North America Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data
2013
Latin America
Boston – USA
The performance outlook is perhaps most positive for North
America but it is also good in a range of emerging markets. Retail
for example may be most promising in the USA and Germany
as well as China and Brazil. Offices look set to deliver better
performance in parts of the US, UK and Japan but also in parts
of China such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, India (New Delhi
and Mumbai), Russia and Turkey.
Looking at areas of opportunity by region and country, US markets
will be key beneficiaries of the firming business cycle and improved
risk appetite as well as easy monetary policy, favouring commercial
as well as multifamily. The USA should therefore be a strong target
for investment in the near term, although investors may have to get
used to moving up the risk curve or paying higher prices, possibly
through buying vacancies, looking at development or moving further
into secondary markets. Such a move along the risk curve may be
slow to emerge in the retail market, where the possibility of tax
increases could hit trading, and uncertainty will keep investors
focused on the best space for now. In the second half of the year,
however, assuming fiscal conditions are clearer, a move towards
second tier and mid-market assets may be seen, following the more
entrepreneurial and opportunistic players who are already looking
at this space.
Industrial and warehousing markets are attracting capital thanks
to their typically higher yields but they also offer growth potential
when proximate to key ports, airports, gateway cities as global
trade levels improve. It is also a sector which in the right areas
and configuration can benefit from the growth in ecommerce.
Medium-to-long-term economic drivers remain favourable for the
multifamily market, although the upside is in most cases fully priced
and short-term headwinds to jobs growth are also less favourable.
As a result, investors need to be keenly aware of construction
activity and focus on markets with least supply threat.
1200
APAC We will see a very polarised landscape in terms of risk and
performance, distinguished by country, city and sector but
not necessarily as many may expect. Indeed, views on risk and
what is ‘secondary’ are likely to change as investor yield demand
grows and as cost-sensitive occupier interest increases.
In Canada, development will remain an attractive route into the
market in 2013, with a focus on under supplied office, multifamily
and logistics markets as well as on expanding regional shopping
centres and converting older industrial space, typically to retail.
Foreign demand in Latin America may be slower to pick-up than in
Asian emerging markets but will steadily take hold. Brazil, Mexico
and Chile will remain the key focus of interest for investors although
interest in other markets is growing, with Colombia the current
favourite for many and Peru an upcoming target. Argentina should
continue to disappoint and will remain a ‘non-real estate target’ in
the year. Elsewhere, Central America as a whole is too small, but
Panama should present a few opportunities, and the Caribbean
should see a small surge in hospitality as the US economy picks up.
In the Asian markets there are clear opportunities in all sectors. In
the office market, global banks will follow the regional banks in their
expansion plans which will fuel office demand in the major gateway
markets of Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney.
This sector will demonstrate positive steady growth rather than the
spikes seen previously in markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
13
Opportunities will also increase in emerging markets offering both
yield and future growth. Overall for the medium term, we favour
Shanghai, Melbourne, Tokyo, Perth and Beijing among core markets
and Adelaide, Shenzhen, New Delhi, Jakarta and Manila among
emerging cities.
Changing retail consumption patterns that demand greater
inventory storage closer to major markets will have a multiplier
effect and generate strong growth for the major hubs in the medium
term and give further impetus to hub and spoke development in
emerging markets.
Nonetheless, with development at historic low levels in many
areas and existing stock often failing to match tenant needs, rents
are at least well under pinned and potential strategies to rework,
reposition and redevelop will be attractive as investors accept a
higher level of risk.
In the retail market meanwhile, with strong growth predicted for
the region this year and a recovery in China, good retail turnover
growth is predicted together with a continued movement of major
designer labels from the developed world to Asia. Kuala Lumpur,
Bangkok, Beijing and Jakarta are favoured for retail although a
defensive strategy would also favour established markets such as
Hong Kong and Singapore as well as key Australian cities perhaps
by the year end.
In Europe, less euro stress and stress in other macro areas will
give way to more focus on fundamental market drivers, differences
between countries and their policies and between cities and their
appeal to occupiers. Divergence will therefore be if anything an
accelerating theme for the year, most notably between core and
periphery and strategies must adjust to that – including a scenario
where core markets start to overheat.
Despite recent improvements meanwhile, the funding gap left by
the lack of traditional lenders in the market will continue to present
opportunities for investment via senior or mezzanine debt, focused
on core markets and top tier borrowers.
In the major hubs of Tokyo, Osaka, Shanghai, Hong Kong and
Singapore, logistics will be the hottest sector in the region. The land
for this sector is tightly controlled, current average vacancy sits at a
low 2% and with an uptick in economic activity and demand, strong
performance is likely.
Oslo – Norway
14
Economic fragility will keep investors focused on the security of
the cash flows from property and this will ensure Northern and
Western European cities remain busy with a heavy focus on cities
and sectors where modern supply is most constrained- not so
much due to hopes of growth but just for improved income security.
For low risk investors, prime offices in markets such as London and
Munich or prime retail in London, Paris, Berlin, Munich or Stockholm
should be favoured. In other sectors, logistics looks attractive in
those areas where e-tailing is boosting and changing demand. For
those ready to move up the risk curve meanwhile we favour better
quality secondary and development in core markets firstly, followed
by prime property in top cities in second tier countries
Milan – Italy
15
global investment volumes
€ millions – Above US$5 million equivalent, excludes apartments
Country
2011
2012
Annual change
€ millions – Above US$5 million equivalent, excludes apartments
2013 Trend
Argentina
223
89
-60.2%
,
Australia 14,619 19,097
30.6%
,
Austria 1,064
820 -22.9%
m
Bahrain00
n/a
m
Belgium 1,995 2,017
1.1%
,
Brazil 5,350 1,918-64.2%
m
Bulgaria
198
73 -63.3%
m
Canada 13,091 15,267 16.6%
m
Channel Islands
42
33
-20.6%
,
Chile 952 297-68.7%
m
China205,196235,378 14.7%
.
Colombia
69
0
n/a
m
Croatia
322
47 -85.5%
,
Czech Republic
2,234
547
-75.5%
m
Denmark
4,521
5,430
20.1%
,
Ecuador00
n/a
m
Estonia
291
102 -64.9%
m
Finland 1,770 2,000 13.0%
,
France 16,542 14,923 -9.8%
,
Germany 23,500 25,430
8.2%
m
Greece
190
100 -47.4%
,
Hong Kong
16,450
20,829
26.6%
,
Hungary
726
154 -78.9%
m
India 2,929 2,575-12.1% m
Indonesia
521
525
0.8%
m
Ireland
159
590 271.5%
m
Israel 537 255-52.5% m
Italy 4,423 2,485-43.8% ,
Japan22,09723,080 4.4%
m
Latvia
25
0
n/a m
Lithuania
24
20 -17.0%
m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Property Data, KTI and RCA
Annual change figures have been calculated based on the total values and not rounded values
16
Country
2011
2012
Annual change
2013 Trend
Luxembourg
367
542
47.6%
,
Malaysia
1,676 2,343 39.8%
,
Mexico
850 1,702 100.2%
m
Netherlands
3,279
2,981
-9.1%
m
New Zealand
1,545
1,730
12.0%
m
Norway 4,083 6,485 58.8%
.
Oman
0
37
n/a ,
Peru 120
4-96.5% m
Philippines
35
557 1,493.3%
,
Poland 2,563 2,817 9.9%
m
Portugal
169
108 -36.1%
,
Republic of Korea 8,301 6,387-23.0% .
Romania
328
276 -15.8%
m
Russia 5,538 5,790 4.5% ,
Saudia Arabia
49
62
27.9%
,
Serbia
69
7-90.3% ,
Singapore
14,038
12,147
-13.5%
m
Slovakia
383
17 -95.7%
,
Slovenia00
n/a
,
South Africa
4,106
858
-79.1%
m
Spain 1,635 1,721 5.3% m
Sweden 9,780 9,914
1.4%
,
Switzerland
2,165 4,800121.7% ,
Taiwan 6,171 7,744 25.5%
,
Thailand
795
1,040 30.8%
m
Turkey
716
837 16.9%
m
Ukraine
378 3964.6% ,
United Arab Emirates 772 449-41.8% m
United Kingdom 38,58343,648 13.1%
m
USA 113,941144,535 26.0%
m
Vietnam
164 23342.5% m
US$ millions – Above US$5 million, excludes apartments
Country
2011
2012
US$ millions – Above US$5 million, excludes apartments
Annual change
2013 Trend
Argentina
315
117-62.7% ,
Australia 20,629 24,584
19.2%
,
Austria 1,381 1,081 -21.7%
m
Bahrain00
n/a
m
Belgium 2,590 2,659
2.6%
,
Brazil 7,452 2,470-66.9% m
Bulgaria
257
96 -62.7%
m
Canada 18,381 19,658 6.9%
m
Channel Islands
54
44
-19.3%
,
Chile 1,335 388-71.0% m
China286,350302,222 5.5%
.
Colombia
96
0
n/a
m
Croatia
447
60 -86.5%
,
Czech Republic
2,900
721
-75.2%
m
Denmark
5,870
7,159
22.0%
,
Ecuador00
n/a
m
Estonia
413
132 -68.0%
m
Finland 2,298 2,637 14.8%
,
France 21,475 19,674 -8.4%
,
Germany 30,508 33,527
9.9%
m
Greece
247
132 -46.5%
,
Hong Kong
23,234
26,801
15.4%
,
Hungary
942
202 -78.5%
m
India 4,121 3,316-19.5% m
Indonesia
714
677
-5.3%
m
Ireland
206
778 277.3%
m
Israel 761 330-56.6% m
Italy 5,742 3,276-43.0% ,
Japan
30,919
29,809 -3.6%
m
Latvia
34
0
n/a m
Lithuania
32
26 -20.9%
m
Country
2011
2012
Annual change
2013 Trend
Luxembourg
477
714
49.8%
,
Malaysia
2,335
2,989 28.0%
,
Mexico 1,210 2,169 79.3%
m
Netherlands
4,257
3,930
-7.7%
m
New Zealand
2,006
2,281
13.7%
m
Norway 5,301 8,550 61.3%
.
Oman
0
46
n/a ,
Peru 166
6-96.6% m
Philippines
49
702 1,318.9%
,
Poland 3,328 3,715 11.6%
m
Portugal
219
142 -35.1%
,
Republic of Korea 11,688 8,191-29.9% .
Romania
425
363 -14.5%
m
Russia 7,190 7,634 6.2% ,
Saudia Arabia
67
79
19.2%
,
Serbia
94
9-90.5% ,
Singapore
19,628
15,608
-20.5%
m
Slovakia
498
22 -95.6%
,
Slovenia00
n/a
,
South Africa
5,785
1,111
-80.8%
m
Spain 2,122 2,269 6.9% m
Sweden 12,696 13,070
2.9%
,
Switzerland
2,811
6,328
125.2%
,
Taiwan
8,669
9,887 14.0%
,
Thailand
1,121
1,352 20.6%
m
Turkey
930 1,104 18.7%
m
Ukraine
521
497 -4.7%
,
United Arab Emirates1,074 587-45.3%
m
United Kingdom
50,088
57,546
14.9%
m
USA160,049186,045 16.2%
m
Vietnam
233
302 29.6%
m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Property Data, KTI and RCA
Annual change figures have been calculated based on the total values and not rounded values
17
GLOBAL YIELDS
Global Yields
Global Yields
CountryOffices
Shops
Argentina
9.00% Australia
6.50%
Austria
5.20%
Bahrain 11.00%
Belgium 6.35%
Brazil 9.00% Bulgaria 9.50%
Canada 6.00%
Channel Islands
6.00%
Chile
8.50%
China
5.55%
Colombia
11.00%
Croatia
8.00%
Czech Republic
6.25%
Denmark
5.00%
Ecuador 11.75%
Estonia 8.00%
Finland 5.50%
France 4.25%
Germany
4.55%
Greece
9.80%
Hong Kong
3.00%
Hungary 7.25%
India
10.00%
Indonesia
9.00%
Ireland 7.65%
Israel
7.50%
Italy
5.50%
Japan4.30%
Latvia 8.00%
9.00% 5.50%
4.25%
11.00%
4.50%
7.50%* 9.00%
5.75%
6.50%
7.50%
4.50%
14.00%*
7.75%
6.00%*
5.00%
15.65%
8.25%
5.00%
4.00%
4.00%
8.10%
2.30%
7.00%*
13.50%
10.00%
6.85%
7.25%
6.50%*
4.50%
8.00%
* Shopping Centres
Note: Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
18
Industrial
12.00% 8.35%
7.50%
11.00%
7.50%
12.00% 11.75%
6.50%
7.50%
9.50%
7.00%
13.00%
9.50%
8.25%
7.50%
12.45%
9.50%
7.50%
7.25%
6.50%
13.50%
3.10%
9.00%
12.00%
9.50%
9.00%
7.75%
8.25%
6.00%
9.25%
Trend
CountryOffices
Shops
.
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
,
,
,
,
.
,
.
.
.
m
,
,
.
.
!
,
m
.
.
Lithuania
7.25%
Luxembourg
6.00%
Malaysia
6.00%
Mexico 11.50%
Netherlands
6.25%
New Zealand
7.50%
Norway 5.25%
Peru
12.00%
Philippines
7.00%
Poland
6.25%
Portugal
7.75%
Republic of Korea
5.60%
Romania
8.50%
Russia
8.75%
Serbia
10.50%
Singapore
3.85%
Slovakia 7.25%
Slovenia
8.00%
South Africa
8.75%
Spain
6.00%
Sweden 4.50%
Switzerland
3.75%
Taiwan
2.25%
Thailand 7.00%
Turkey
7.50%
Ukraine
15.00%
United Arab Emirates
7.75%
United Kingdom 4.00%
USA5.63%
Vietnam
11.50%
8.00%
5.00%
5.00%*
11.00%*
4.70%
6.00%
5.25%
20.00%*
3.20%
6.00%*
7.00%
7.00%*
8.50%*
9.50%*
10.50%
5.35%
7.25%*
6.75%
7.25%*
4.85%
4.75%
3.80%
2.00%
9.00%*
7.10%*
16.00%
–
3.00%
6.31%
11.50%*
Industrial
Trend
8.50%
8.50%
7.75%
11.80%
7.60%
7.50%
6.50%
12.00%
3.60%
7.50%
9.75%
–
9.50%
11.50%
13.00%
6.70%
8.75%
9.50%
9.75%
8.25%
6.50%
5.50%
2.50%
8.50%
9.00%
16.00%
11.00%
5.75%
6.90%
10.00%
.
,
,
.
m
,
,
.
.
,
m
,
,
m
m
,
,
m
,
,
,
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
!
,
STANDARD GLOBAL LEASE TERMS
The following is a summary of typical lease structures for commercial property. It should be noted that in many instances, certain aspects of lease terms will be open to negotiation and these therefore represent only
the standard terms currently being seen across different sectors of the market.
Summary of Standard Global Lease Terms
Length – years
COUNTRY
Off/Ind
Retail
Tenant Breaks
Security of Tenure/Right to renew
Indexation or Review
Argentina
3
3
Yes, after 6 months
None
Not possible by law
Australia
5–10
5
Only by negotiation
None other than by negotiation
Annual increment to open market value or agreed fixed increase
Austria
5–10/5–7
5–10
Bahrain
1–5
1–5
Belgium
9
9+
3 yearly, with 6 months’ notice period
Brazil
3–5
3–5
By negotiation
Retail only – normally the right to renew for a further three
terms of 9 years
Yes on leases over 5 years
Bulgaria
3–5
5
Break options after the third year with 6 months notice
Office: 5–10
Ind: 3/5/10
Channel Islands 9–15/9
5–10
Chile
3–5
3–5
Not common, but where they do occur, are usually
at the end of year 5 or 7 with a financial penalty
None except in the case of 21 or 24 year leases with
a tenant break at 15
By negotiation
Usually the right to renew for an additional 5 years. Retail usually
has two 5 year options
No security of tenure in Jersey or Guernsey and renewal is by
negotiation
Automatic renewal for the same period of time
Rents are indexed to EU HCPI or the euro zone HCPI index.
Indexation to Bulgarian CPI is rare
Right to renew typically at market rates. Sometimes a renewal
may specify at a rate not to exceed a set dollar amount
Index linked 3 yearly rent reviews. Prime stock linked to market
rental value and secondary stock to the cost of living
Indexation to CPI
China
3–5
Rare but negotiable and compensation is payable
Not typical. New lease usually negotiated prior to lease end
Colombia
3–5
2-15 years,
dependent on
sector/tenant
3–5
By negotiation.
Automatic right to renew for the same period of time
Annual indexation to IPC +2
Croatia
3+2/5
After the third year against a penalty fee of the
annual rent + service charges
None other than by negotiation, although tenant only extension
options common in the retail sector
Annual indexation to euro zone CPI
Czech Rep
3–5/3–5–10
5+5, with some
shopping
centres at 10
3–5
Negotiable, but must be clearly stated in the lease
Not automatic but may be included in the lease by negotiation
Annual indexation to the relevant inflation index: euro zone or
EU 27 HICP for euro denominated leases or Czech Statistical
Office CPI for CZK leases
Denmark
2–5
2–5
Negotiable
Annual CPI indexation or to a fixed percentage
Ecuador
3
5
Egypt
3–5
3–5
90 days notice and two months rent defined
as guarantee at the beginning of the lease
Yes. As a general rule, leases are constantly rolling until notice
is served
Defined as a clause in every contract. Same period as original
contract
No security of tenure and renewal only be negotiation
Estonia
3–5/3–10
5–10
Finland
1–5/7–12
1–5
Canada
9–15
No automatic right to renew. However, many old office leases
still exist where the tenant has a perpetual right to renew
Tenant break options are typically negotiable but usually No automatic right to renew, but the law is not entirely clear
only after the first year
on this
None, only for leases of an unspecified term,
where at least 3 months’ notice is required
None, unless stipulated in the lease
Not automatic by law, but a common practice on the market
The tenant enjoys security of tenure
Indexed to a government-issued monthly index. Sometimes a
3.0%–5.0% step before an increase comes into effect
No indexation or rent review process is place. At the time of
lease renewal a 10% increase is permissible by law, dependent on
tenant agreement and current market rate
Annual indexation to “Health Index” (an adjusted consumer
price index)
Annual inflation adjustment plus 3 yearly review
Contracts indexed to the local consumer price index (INEC)
Annually at a percentage normally defined in the lease but
typically between 3.0%–8.0%
Rents are typically tied to the euro, but indexed to local inflation.
Reviews are not common practice
Indexed annually or biannually to the cost of living
(FIN elinkustannusindeksi)
19
Length – years
COUNTRY
Off/Ind
Retail
Tenant Breaks
France
9+/9
10–12
Option every third year
(except when a fixed term has been agreed)
The tenant has the right to renew for an extra term of 9 years
Germany
5–10/3–10
5+5
Negotiable for office and industrail. Unusual for retail
or only with payment of penalty
Right to renew for an extra term. Applicable for retail only
if options to extend (e.g 5+5) were agreed in the contract
Rents are indexed to the cost of construction index, published by the
INSEE. The index is published quarterly but applied annually. New
retail leases for shopping centres and retail parks are increasingly
linked to the ILC index (Indice des Loyers Commerciaux). Industrial
and office properties can also be indexed to the ILAT index
Generally rents are indexed to the official consumer price index
("Verbraucherpreisindex") – an automatic adjustment on a given
date or whenever the changes occur
Greece
12
12
The tenant has the right to extend for a further 4 years
Hong Kong
2,3 or 6 years
2–3
After the first year with 3 months notice and paying
1 month penalty as compensation
Hungary
3–5
5–10
India
3+3+3 years
3+3+3 years
(varies by
region)
Indonesia
3/1–2
5
Ireland
5–10
10
After the third year against a penalty fee of the annual
rent + service charges
Negotiable, typically with a 3 to 6 month notice period.
For retail, the landlord is locked in for 9 years. However,
the tenant can exit after 2–3 years (negotiable) by giving
3–6 months notice
By negotiation, subject to landlord approval. In most
cases, the tenant is granted the right to sublease or
pay for the remainder of the lease
By negotiation, but generally after every five years
Israel
10/25
10
5+5+5
Italy
Standard Lease:
most typically
6+6 yrs (but it
may also be for
other prescribed
combinations e.g.
for 9+6 years,
or for 9+9 years,
or for a longer
fixed period)
1) Standard
Lease: see
comment for
Off/Ind
Japan
2–5
Latvia
1–5
20
None other than by negotiation. Options for renewal
are typical however
None other than by negotiation, although tenant only
extension options are common in the retail sector
None other than by negotiation, with an option for renewal.
Office – mostly with the tenant for 9 years
Annual indexation to consumer price index or CPI plus
1 percentage point
By negotiation but usually at lease renewal or every 3 years
on longer leases
Annual indexation to HICP. Alternatively, office rents may
be indexed to Eurostat’s MUICP
Fixed rental increase of 15.0%–18.0% every 3 years
Negotiable. Tenants do not have the automatic right to renew
No indexation. Review usually after lease term
Tenant can renew for between 5 and 20 years after five years
of continuous occupation
Pre February 2010: 5 yearly to market rental value but upwards only.
Post February 2010: Same, but legislation prohibits the upwards only
clause in all new leases. Limited cases of indexation
Indexation to local CPI at each rent payment, typically quarterly
3-6 months for offices/retail, 6-12 months for industrial
Standard Lease: The 6+6 year regime (contemplated by
the Civil Code) effectively enables the tenant to restrict
the term to 6 years, or automatically extend the term
for the second period. A rolling break during the second
term of the lease can be put into negotiations to the
2) Business
tenant’s advantage only (for which a notice period of 12
Lease: usually
for 5 to 7 years. months is often required). Break option (rolling or not)
is subject to negotiation
Retail: occupiers benefit from the 'right of first refusal'
option for the purchase of the walls and of the automatic
renewal of the contract
Business Lease: break option is subject to negotiation
Standard termination provision with 6 months advance
5–10
10(luxury brands written notice for standard lease structures. No early
termination rights for fixed-term lease structures
shops)
Standard Lease: With a 6+6 year lease in respect of non retail
premises, the tenant does not have a statutory right to renew at
the end of the second period. With retail premises, tenants have
certain rights at lease expiry, and if the lease is not renewed,
compensation is likely to be due from the landlord (as a multiple
of the rent previously payable)
Business Lease: A tenant operating under a business leases does
not have any statutory right to renewal, or compensation if the
landlord decides not to renew the contract
Annual indexation to ISTAT (cost of living index)
Standard Lease: Subject to negotiation: 75% of ISTAT or 100%
if the lease is longer than 6 years
Business Lease: Subject to negotiation: 75% of ISTAT or 100%
if the lease is longer than 6 years
Indefinite for standard lease structures. None under fixed-term
lease structure
Mutual agreement is sought for standard lease structures, which
can be any time, but usually at the end of lease term. No review
is possible for fixed-term lease structures
1-5 (HS) 5-10 (SC)
No automatic right to renew, but common practice
in the market
Rents are indexed to either local inflation or euro CPI,
or capped at a pre-agreed fixed rate
Typically none. Only applicable for leases of an
unspecified term, where at least 3 - 6 months notice is
required but with minimal term of 1 year
Length – years
COUNTRY
Off/Ind
Retail
Tenant Breaks
Lithuania
2–5
3–6–9
None, unless the ownership changes during
the lease contract
Rare but negotiable, earliest after 3 years
Automatics right to renew for another term
Luxembourg
2-5 (HS) 5 (SC)
9–12
Malaysia
3+3
3+3
Mexico
3–10
10
Break options are not commonplace. A notice of 3–6
months must be served by the tenant or landlord in
order to terminate the lease
Normally negotiable, but subject to penalties
First renewal is the tenant's option, subject to rent review.
Further terms of renewal must be negotiated separately
with the landlord, unless there is a prior agreement
None, other than by negotiation
Netherlands
5–10
5+5
For all sectors negotiable
New Zealand
9–12
3–6
Rare but can be negotiated
Retail: The tenant has security of tenure as the lease automatically
renews at expiry, bearing in mind the notice period. The exception
to this is if the landlord wishes to occupy, tear down or redevelop
the building. These conditions are rather strict and in reality the
landlord’s options of terminating the lease are limited
Office and industrial: Negotiable
The right to renew is negotiable and common in commercial
and larger industrial leases
Rents are indexed to local inflation or more rarely to euro CPI,
or capped at fixed rates (varies by sector)
Annual indexation to CPI which is triggered by a set increase
in the index
Rents are not indexed although upon lease renewal are typically
reviewed to market rents whereby the tenant pays a
proportionate share of any increases
Annual increases to US CPI. However, some contracts are
negotiated in Mexican pesos
Annual indexation to CPI
Norway
3–10/5–15
3–10
Negotiable
Oman
3–5
3–5
Tenant break options are only allowed if provision has
been madein the lease contract and subject to a penalty
Peru
3–10
Philippines
3–5
Poland
5–10/3–5
Portugal
5
Rep of Korea
Romania
No automatic right to renew at lease expiration
Statutory right to renew
Usually 3 years review to market rent (upwards only). In addition
rents are adjusted annually through a 'ratchet' clause based on
a fixed increase or CPI related increase
Annual indexation to CPI
No indexation process in place. While the law is somewhat
unclear the rent can only be increased after 3 years and the
tenant has security of tenure for 5 years
Annual inflation adjustment to US CPI or 3.00% as a maximum
3+2
Yes, the lease will be automatically renewed for the exact
term with the same terms and conditions unless otherwise
agreed in writing
3–10
By negotiation
By negotiation although depends on contract clauses – early
termination possibilities exist
3–5
Break clauses must be stipulated in the lease. In the absence The current tenant is normally granted the right to renew.
Tenants are required, 90 days prior to lease expiry, to submit
of an agreed break clause the tenant will be required to
a letter expressing interest in renewing the lease
pay a penalty which is usually equivalent to the remaining
proportion of the lease
No automatic right to renew
3–5 (10 for large The current market conditions give preference to long
size operators) term leases with no automatic extensions. Termination
options are not a standard but if exist the corresponding
penalty applies. In open-ended leases there is typically
a 3–6 month notice period
Old leases: The tenant has automatic security of tenure
5
Old leases: No break option
New leases: Freely negotiated between parties
New leases: Freely negotiated between parties –
usually 180 days notice for both parties
SC: No break options in unit shops. For anchors there is a
break option after 5 or 6 years of contract. In high street
retail, break options are not common
2+2
Negotiable
Negotiable
3–5
3–15
Annual indexation to Euro CPI
No break options
Negotiable
Leases are not indexed. Any escalations to the rent must be
specifically stipulated in the contract
Annual indexation to euro zone CPI
New lease: Freely negotiated between parties, usually increased
annually according to inflation (yearly published by the government).
Old lease: Since the 90s, increased annually according to
inflation (yearly published by the government)
Shopping Centres: Usually increased annually according to
inflation (based 100% of CPI published by INE)
Annual review to market value plus CPI
21
Length – years
COUNTRY
Off/Ind
Retail
Tenant Breaks
Russia
5/1–3
3–5
Yes if stated in the lease
Annual indexation to USA/EU CPI or fixed increase
(variable by sector)
Saudi Arabia
3-5
3-5
Office: Possible after 1 year but more commonly 3 years,
whereby the deposit is retained by the landlord. Notice
period is 6–9 months. When there is an option to review
the rent after the third year, the contract can be
terminated from both sides
Retail: Break options are not common and if presupposed
there are strict penalties for pre-term break
Breaks are possible by negotiation
Serbia
3–5
3–5
Subject to negotiation
Generally leases are renewable for one further term, but this is
subject to negotiation and not guaranteed
Review to either market, or a fixed percentage increase
of either 5 or 10%.
Annually to CPI
Singapore
2–3
2–3
Only by negotiation but not common. Tenant has to seek None other than by negotiation
replacement for remaining lease
Only by negotiation
None. No automatic right to renew after lease expiry
Slovakia
3–5–10
5–10
Slovenia
1–10
South Africa
3–5
5–10 (SC & RW) Not customary. By negotiation and with landlord
5 (HS)
agreement
3–5
Spain
3–5/5+
5+ (SC)
10–15 (HS)
Sweden
3–5
3–5
Switzerland
5
5
Negotiable
Taiwan
3–5
3–5
Thailand
3
3
Turkey
3–5/5–10
3–5 (HS)
5 (SC)
Ukraine
3–5
3–5
United Arab
Emirates
1–5
United
Kingdom
USA
5–10–15
5–10
10
Vietnam
3
3
22
Offices: Negotiable
Logistics: Break option at the end of year 3
SC: Break option at the end of year 5
HS: Break option at the end of year 5 or 10, with 6 months
notice
May occur in leases over 3 years, although in most cases
contains a penalty fee
Lease renewal negotiations are held 3–6 months before lease
expiration
None, but further terms can be negotiated
By negotiation, typically at lease end or after 3 years for leases
longer than 3 years
Annually indexed to euro zone or EU 27 HICP
Not all leases are indexed. For those that are, indexation varies
but is typically either Slovenian or Austrian CPI
Reviews at lease expiration, typically to market value
Annual indexation to IPC
Commercial leases are automatically renewed at the end of the
lease term (usually for 3 or 5 years at a time) if neither landlord
nor tenant serves notice
No security of tenure, but options are often put in the lease
Indexed annually to the consumer price index (CPI)
Negotiable. Usually tenants can exercise
the break option
Normally not available unless tenant is going bankrupt
No statutory right to renew
1–5
For leases between 3–5 years break option available
after year 1 or year 3 on a 5 year lease
Break clauses may be allowed, but are subject to
negotitaion
Negotiable, but with a penalty fee payable by the tenant
No security of tenure, although leases are often renewed with
a new rent
Security of tenure is not automatic but can be agreed in
negotiation. An option to extend is often put into the lease
No automatic right to renew, and conditions will be dependent
on the terms of the lease
Rent increases run between 2%–3% or at the CPI equivalent
starting from the 3rd year of leasing term
Negotiable and typically between 5.0% - 15.0% of existing gross
rent. Depends on whether applied annually (increasingly seen) or
a one-off increase often seen on 3-year lease terms
Annual indexation to CPI (local currency contract) or fixed step
rents through the lease term (foreign currency contract)
By negotiation
15–25
Negotiable, after the first rent review at the earliest
Negotiable
Yes, if lease is within the Security of Tenure provisions of the
Landlord & Tenant Act 1954 Part II (as amended)
Fixed increments at 3 and 5 years or indexation to CPI
Negotiable
No security of tenure
Typically at lease end to open market rental value
Upon negotiation
Annual indexation to Swiss CPI is typical
No indexation process in place. Leases will typically have an
annual increment uplift after an initial fixed term. This is often
5% each year until the end of the lease
5 yearly to open market value (upward only)
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Commercial Real Estate Services
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Slovenia Invest
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Sources
Macro economic data
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23
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Global Head of Capital Markets
[email protected]
+1 312 470 1855
Janice Stanton
Senior Managing Director
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+1 212 841 5025
John Stinson
Head of Capital Markets
Asia Pacific
[email protected]
+65 6232 0878
Michael Rhydderch
Head of Capital Markets
EMEA
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5060
The Americas
Asia Pacific
emea
Steven Kohn
President, Cushman & Wakefield
Sonnenblick Goldman, LLC
[email protected]
+1 212 841 9216
Bernhard Karas
Director Capital Markets
Asia Pacific
[email protected]
+852 2956 7096
Michael Lindsay
Head of Corporate Finance
EMEA
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5008
investment banking
or visit www.cushmanwakefield.com
24
CAPITAL MARKETs CONTACTS
The Americas
ASIA PACIFIC
ARGENTINA
MEXICO
SAN FRANCISCO
AUSTRALIA
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
Herman Faigenbaum
Managing Director
[email protected]
+54 11 5555 1111
Ander Legorreta
Head of Capital Markets, Mexico
[email protected]
+52 55 8525 8027
Tony Dixon
Director, Investment Sales
[email protected]
+61 2 9229 6853
Handa Sulaiman
Executive Director
[email protected]
+62 21 2550 9570
Ho Chi Minh City
Carlos Pellegrini 1141 6th floor
C1009ABX
Buenos Aires
Argentina
Paseo de los Tamarindos
60-B, 2nd floor
Col. Bosques de las Lomas
México, D.F. 05120
Steve Weilbach
Senior Managing Director,
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+1 415 773 3510
Level 18, 175 Pitt Street
Sydney
NSW 2000
Australia
BRAZIL
UNITED STATES
Indonesia Stock Exchange Building
Tower 2
15/F, JI. Jend. Sudirman Kav.52-53
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Marcelo C. Santos
Vice President Capital Markets & V&A
[email protected]
+55 11 3014-5201
New York
LOS ANGELES
Fred Harmeyer
Senior Managing Director
[email protected]
+1 212 841 7513
Curtis Magleby
Senior Managing Director,
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+1 213 955 6467
Fernanda Rosalem
Director of Capital Markets
[email protected]
+55 11 550 15494
Edificio Berrini 500
Praça Prof. José Lannes 40 – 4th floor
04571-100 São Paulo
Brazil
CANADA
Pierre Bergevin
President & CEO Canada
[email protected]
+1 416 359 2372
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, Ontario MSE 1S9
Canada
CHILE
Maclean Oliveira
Executive Manager – Transactions SA
[email protected]
+55 11 5501 5463
Praça Professor José Lannes,
40 – 4th floor
04571-100 -São Paulo
Brazil
Steven Kohn
President, Equity,
Debt & Structured Finance
[email protected]
+1 212 841 9216
Michael Rotchford
Executive Vice President,
Investment Banking
[email protected]
+1 212 841 7616
Alex Ray
Managing Director
Global Capital Advisory
[email protected]
+1 212 841 5067
1290 Avenue of the Americas
New York
NY 10104-6178
USA
One Maritime Plaza
Suite 900
San Francisco, CA 94111
USA
601 S. Figueroa Street
47th Floor
Los Angeles, CA 90017
USA
For all other Americas
enquiries contact:
Greg Vorwaller
Executive Vice President,
Global Head of Capital Markets
[email protected]
+1 312 470 1855
CHINA
Jack Ye
Director
[email protected]
+86 21 2320 0808
Units 2606-2609,
The Headquarters Building
168 Xi Zang Zhong Lu
Shanghai 200001
China
JAPAN
Yoshiyuki Tanaka
Executive Director
[email protected]
+81 33596 7060
Sanno Park Tower 13F
2-11-1 Nagatacho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-6113
Japan
HONG KONG
REPUBLIC OF KOREA
Kent Fong
Senior Director
[email protected]
+852 2956 7081
Shawna Yang
Associate Director
[email protected]
+82 2 3708 8831
9/F St George's Building,
2 Ice House Street
Hong Kong
5/F Korea Computer Building
21, Sogong-dong
Seoul
Republic of Korea
INDIA
Manish Aggarwal
Director
[email protected]
+91 124 469 5555
14th Floor, Tower C
Building 8, DLF Cyber City
Gurgaon 122002
India
Chris Brown
Associate Director
[email protected]
+84 8629 14707
2/F, 52 Dong Du, District 1
Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam
For all other APAC
enquiries contact:
John Stinson
Managing Director,
Capital Markets Asia Pacific
[email protected]
+65 6232 0878
SINGAPORE
Priyaranjan Kumar
Regional Director,
Capital Markets Asia Pacific
[email protected]
+65 8339 5335
3 Church Street
#09-03, Samsung Hub
Singapore 049483
25
EMEA
BELGIUM
BERLIN
ITALY
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
Maxime Xantippe
Partner, Head of Capital Markets
[email protected]
+32 2 514 4000
Hanns-Joachim Fredrich
Partner, Capital Markets
hannsjoachim.fredrich@
eur.cushwake.com
+49 30 20 21 4 46 20
Milan
Luis Antunes
[email protected]
+351 21 322 4753
Barcelona
David Erwin
CEO, Capital Markets UK
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5016
Jägerstraße 41
10117 Berlin
Germany
Via F. Turati 16/18
20121 Milan
Italy
Avenida da Liberdade 131
2nd Floor
1250-140 Lisbon
Portugal
CZECH REPUBLIC
HAMBURG
Rome
ROMANIA
Madrid
James Chapman
[email protected]
+420 234 603 210
Dr. Michael Thiele
Partner
[email protected]
+49 40 300 88 11 10
Carlo Vanini
[email protected]
+39 06 4200791
Charles Henry
[email protected]
+40 744 333 094
Rupert Lea
Partner, Retail Capital Markets
[email protected]
+34 91 781 38 37
Na Prikope 1
110 00 Prague 1
Czech Republic
Hermannstraße 22
20095 Hamburg
Germany
Via Vittorio Veneto 54b
00187 Rome
Italy
FRANCE
MUNICH
THE NETHERLANDS
Opera Center II
2nd Dr. Nicolae Staicovici Street
4th Floor
Bucharest, Sector 5
Romania
Paloma Relinque
Partner, Business Space Capital Markets
[email protected]
+34 91 781 38 43
Thierry Juteau
[email protected]
+33 1 53 76 95 51
Thomas Müller
[email protected]
+49 89 242 14 33 33
Mathijs Flierman
Partner, Director Capital Markets
[email protected]
+31 20 800 2089
11-13 Ave de Friedland
Paris 75008
France
Maximilianstraße 40
80539 Munich
Germany
GERMANY
HUNGARY
Atrium, 3e verdieping/3rd Floor
Strawinskylaan 3125
1077 ZX Amsterdam
Netherlands
Frankfurt
Charles Taylor
[email protected]
+36 1 268 1288
Avenue des Arts, 56
Kunstlaan 56
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Frank Nickel
Partner, CEO Germany
[email protected]
+49 69 506073 111
Westhafenplatz 6
60327 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Deák Palota
Deák Ferenc utca 15
Budapest 1052
Hungary
Stephen Screene
[email protected]
+39 02 63 7991
POLAND
Wojciech Pisz
Partner, Retail Capital Markets
[email protected]
+48 22 8202059
Soren Rodian Olsen
Partner, Business Space
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+48 228202144
Metropolitan
Plac Pilsudskiego 1
00-078 Warsaw
Poland
26
RUSSIA
Tom Cashel
[email protected]
+7 495 799 9875
Ducat Place ||| BC, 6th Floor
Gasheka Street, 6
125047 Moscow
Russia
SLOVAKIA
James Chapman
[email protected]
+420 234 603 210
Pribinova 10
811 09 Bratislava
Slovak Republic
Reno Cardiff
[email protected]
+34 93 488 18 81
Passeig de Gràcia 56-7°C
08007 Barcelona
Spain
Edificio Beatriz
José Ortega y Gasset, 29-6a Plta
28006 Madrid
Spain
SWEDEN
Magnus Lange
Managing Partner
[email protected]
+46 85 456 7714
Sergels Torg 12
SE-111 57 Stockholm
Sweden
TURKEY
Togrul Gonden
Managing Partner
[email protected]
+90 212 334 78 00
Inönü Cad. Devres Han No. 50 2/A
Gümüssuyu 34437
Beyoglu
Istanbul
Turkiye
Andrew Thomas
Partner, London Capital Markets
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5181
PJ Thibault
Partner, Business Space
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5022
43-45 Portman Square
London, W1A 3BG
England
For all other EMEA
enquiries contact:
Michael Rhydderch
Partner, Head of EMEA
Capital Markets
[email protected]
+44 207 152 5060
Jan-Willem Bastijn
Partner, EMEA Capital Markets
[email protected]
+31 20 8002081
Michael Rodda
Partner, Head of Retail,
EMEA Capital Markets
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5661
Nick Jones
Partner, Head of Industrial,
EMEA Capital Markets
[email protected]
+44 20 7152 5226
THE FULL REPORT
The full report from which this summary is taken provides an
introduction to the world’s key investment markets for real estate.
A total of 51 locations are reviewed with market by market profiles
as outlined below.
Sample Country Profiles
Markets covered
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Bahrain
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Channel Islands
Chile
China
Colombia
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Peru
Poland
Portugal
Republic of Korea
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
USA
Vietnam
The full report is available exclusively to Cushman & Wakefield
clients. For more information about obtaining a printed copy,
please contact [email protected]
27
Cushman & Wakefield is the world’s largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm. The company advises
and represents clients on all aspects of property occupancy and investment, and has established a preeminent position
in the world’s major markets, as evidenced by its frequent involvement in many of the most significant property leases,
sales and assignments. Founded in 1917, it has 253 offices in 60 countries and more than 14,000 employees. It offers a
complete range of services for all property types, including leasing, sales and acquisitions, equity, debt and structured
finance, corporate finance and investment banking, corporate services, property management, facilities management,
project management, consulting and appraisal. The firm has more than $4 bn in assets under management globally.
A recognized leader in local and global real estate research, the firm publishes its market information and studies
online at www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. It does not purport to be a complete description
of the markets or developments contained in this material. The information on which this report is based has been
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we
do not guarantee that the information is accurate or complete.
©2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cushman & Wakefield, LLP
43-45 Portman Square
London W1A 3BG
www.cushmanwakefield.com
28
www.cushmanwakefield.com
© 2013 Cushman & Wakefield
All rights reserved

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