Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

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Current results of the
Earth Orientation Parameters
Prediction Comparison Campaign
Maciej Kalarus1 , Wieslaw Kosek1 and Harald Schuh2
1
2
Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw
Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology
presented at
Journées “Systèmes de référence spatio-temporels”
Paris, France, 17-19 September 2007
M. Kalarus, W. Kosek, and H. Schuh ()
Current results of the EOPPCC
Journées 2007
1 / 20
Overview
1
Objectives
2
History
3
Analyses
4
Results
5
Prospects
Journées 2007
2 / 20
Objectives
Objective and Motivation
importance of EOP prediction within the IERS
comparing the various methods, models, techniques
and strategies which can be applied for EOP prediction
with equal rules
applying the same statistical method for all results
by a ”referee”
collecting the predictions before any EOP
observations are available
computing the combined predictions
Journées 2007
3 / 20
History
Milestones
Call for participation (IERS Message No. 74)
Beginning of the EOPPCC
(July 14th , 2005)
(October 1st , 2005)
Second Call for participation (IERS Message No. 95)
(September 25th , 2006)
New rules
(October 1st , 2006)
Termination of the EOPPCC
(March, 2008)
Journées 2007
4 / 20
History
Presentations
”First results of the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction
Comparison Campaign”
poster at EGU 2006, Vienna (April, 2006)
”Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign Report”
oral presentation at IAU 2006, Prague (August, 2006)
”Current results of the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction
poster at EGU 2007, Vienna (April, 2007)
oral presentation at Journées 2007, Paris (September , 2007)
Journées 2007
5 / 20
History
List of participants
ID
Participant
Institute/Organization
011
012
Sergey Kumakshev
IPM RAS, Russia
Orhan Akyilmaz
Hansjoerg Kutterer
Richard Gross
ITU, Turkey
University of Hannover, Germany
NASA JPL, USA
Wiesaw Kosek
Space Research Centre PAS, Poland
Maciej Kalarus
EOP Product Center
Space Research Centre PAS, Poland
Paris Observatory, France
Daniel Gambis
Paris Observatory, France
Leonid Zotov
SAI, Moscow State University, Russia
Sergey Pasynok
Paulo Jorge Mendes Cerveira
Bora Jovanovic
SAI, Moscow State University, Russia
IGG, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
Astronomical Observatory, Belgrade, Serbia
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
Journées 2007
6 / 20
Analyses
Data sets
IERS /eoppc/eop/eopc04/eopc04 IAU2000.62-now
predictions
(total number: 5349)
ultra short-term (for 10 days) (received before 24 August 2007)
short-term
(for 30 days) (received before 03 August 2007)
medium-term (for 500 days) (received before 16 September 2006)
Journées 2007
7 / 20
Analyses
Main Equation
Mean Absolute Error - MAEi for i th day in the future
st
e2,1
1 prediction
e7,1
data
e10,1
e1,1
e3,2
e10,2
e 6,2 2nd prediction
time
N
1 X
MAEi =
|εi ,n |,
N
i = 1, 2, ..., I
n=1
N - number of predictions sent by given participant for given parameter
I - prediction length (10,30 or 500 days)
Journées 2007
8 / 20
Analyses
Excluding bad predictions
Median Absolute Error - MDAEi for i th day in the future
MDAEi = median(|εi ,1 |, |εi ,2 |, ...|εi ,P |),
I - prediction length (10,30 or 500 days)
P - number of all available predictions for given parameter
βn coefficient
βn =
I
X
(α · MDAEi − |εi ,n |) ,
i =1
α = 10 (deduced empirically)
Only predictions with βn ≥ 0 are accepted! (practically - 98.62%)
Journées 2007
9 / 20
Analyses
Combined prediction
Contributions to the combined prediction (weights[%])
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
25%
19
x
p
9 10 9
10
7
4
3 3
10
13
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
3 4
4
3 2
1 1
121
19
16
15
10
22
6
2 1
8
3
7 7
10 10
8
11
11
8
7
7
21
16
14 16
13 12
11
6
20
19
p
11
10
7
25%
y
071
23
11
10
7 6
5
12
11
9
12 11
1
41
40%
36
UT1−UTC
14 16
15
6
9
5
3
4
11 10
9 10
4
2 4
57
60%
38
LOD
14
6
9
14
ultra short−term
4 7
1
1
short−term
Weight - W, Quality - Q,
2
W ∼ [Q · NAccepted ],
1
Q=
I
X
i =1
8 8
6 6
6 7
2 6
medium−term
MAEi
!−1
Journées 2007
10 / 20
Results
Ultra short-term predictions of polar motion
MAE [mas]: x
MAE [mas]: y
p
5
4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5
3.5
3
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
1.5
1.5
1
1
0.5
0
0
p
5
Nx
p
Ny
p
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
S. Kumakshev
O. Akyilmaz, H. Kutterer
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
P. J. Mendes Cerveira
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
0.5
[days]
5
10
0
0
[days]
5
10
Journées 2007
11 / 20
Results
Ultra short-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD
MAE [ms/day]: ∆
MAE [ms]: UT1−UTC
2
N
0.4
1.8
1.6
0.3
1.4
0.25
1
0.2
0.8
N∆
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
0.35
1.2
UT1
0.15
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.2
0
0
[days]
5
10
0
0
[days]
5
10
Journées 2007
12 / 20
Results
Short-term predictions of polar motion
MAE [mas]: x
MAE [mas]: y
p
14
12
Nx
p
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
[days]
10
20
30
Ny
p
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
12
10
0
0
p
14
0
0
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
[days]
10
20
30
Journées 2007
13 / 20
Results
Short-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD
MAE [ms/day]: ∆
MAE [ms]: UT1−UTC
8
0.45
7
0.4
N
0.3
5
0.25
4
0.2
3
0.15
2
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
0.1
1
0
0
N∆
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
0.35
6
UT1
0.05
[days]
10
20
30
0
0
[days]
10
20
30
Journées 2007
14 / 20
Results
Medium-term predictions of polar motion
MAE [mas]: x
MAE [mas]: y
p
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
0
0
p
100
Nx
p
Ny
p
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
10
[days]
100
200
300
0
0
[days]
100
200
300
Journées 2007
15 / 20
Results
Medium-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD
MAE [ms/day]: ∆
MAE [ms]: UT1−UTC
200
1
180
0.9
160
0.8
140
0.7
120
0.6
100
0.5
80
0.4
60
0.3
40
0.2
20
0
0
N
UT1
N∆
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
0.1
[days]
100
200
300
0
0
[days]
100
200
300
Journées 2007
16 / 20
Results
Medium-term predictions of dX and dY
MAE [mas]: dX
MAE [mas]: dY
0.5
0.5
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.4
0.35
0.35
0.3
0.3
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0
N
dX
N
dY
011
012
021
031
051
052
053
061
071
072
073
074
075
091
092
093
101
111
121
CP
S. Kumakshev
R. Gross
W. Kosek
M. Kalarus
EOP Product Center
D. Gambis
L. Zotov
S. Pasynok
B. Jovanovic
Combined Prediction
0.05
[days]
100
200
300
0
0
[days]
100
200
300
Journées 2007
17 / 20
Results
Conclusions
combined predictions are better than most individual predictions
there is no direct way to compare all predictions
in case of medium-term predictions we have to wait for observed data
to compute more reliable statistics
Journées 2007
18 / 20
Prospects
Prospects
comparison of the results with respect to different input data used by
participants
comparison of different types of algorithms (e.g. LS vs AR)
presentation at AGU 26th General Assembly 2007, San Francisco (December , 2007)
”Termination of EOPPCC - General Conclusions”
presentation at EGU 2008, Vienna (April, 2008)
cooperation with IERS Working Group on Prediction
final paper
Journées 2007
19 / 20
Prospects
website: www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP PCC
e-mail: EOP [email protected]
Thank you for your attention
Journées 2007
20 / 20

Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

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