Polish Equities Monthly: February 2009

Transkrypt

M
t
on
h ly
Season in the abyss
Analysts:
Sobiesław Pająk, CFA, Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA, Maciej Wewiórski, Michał Sobolewski, Jakub Viscardi,
Adrian Kyrcz, Łukasz Prokopiuk, Marek Kaźmierczak
rt
po
Polish Equities Monthly:
February 2009
Re
2/2009/MR (50) February 8, 2009
M
t
on
h ly
2/2009/MR (50) February 8, 2009
Season in the abyss
Past month sent the WSE into an abyss; the performance
of the local equity market was among the weakest globally,
with the Warsaw stock indices breaking through their
last autumn’s support levels on the back of (i) maintained
high risk aversion among the investors, (ii) lack of apparent
buyers, (iii) further deterioration of the macro outlook
(the GDP growth consensus estimates continued their
march south), (iv) sell-out of the local currency, and (v) rising
anxiety regarding the scale of the damage to be seen in the
corporate profits for 4Q08 (pooled net earnings expected
in the red, one-offs-adjusted recurring EPS of the market seen
at c. -21% yoy). While one could argue that from the forward P/E
perspective Polish market appears attractive given its historical
levels (2009E P/E of c. 10.8x), we find such an argument spurious,
due to two facts: (i) richness in the cross-country context,
and (ii) material risk (larger on the downside than on the upside,
in our view) related to forward corporate earnings (despite
our current expectancy of c. -12% yoy contraction of market’s
per share recuring profits this year). All these factors make
us continue to recommend a cautiousness towards local
equities in the near- to mid-term; while meantime some ST
corrections may pop out, the LT downtrend is unlikely, in our
view, to be reversed in 1H09 (this would require, in our opinion,
improved 2010E macro outlook visibility which – the way we see
it – is rather unlikely to be gained during next few months).
aaOur LT fundamental ratings for the companies in our coverage
universe remain intact. As far as ST market-relative biases go, we
upgrade to Overweight (from Neutral) PKN and PKO. Regarding
the complete list of our ratings (LT fundamental and ST marketrelative) for the companies covered, please refer to the relevant
company sections or to the Appendix to this research report.
aaLast month our portfolio outperformed the market for the 10th
consecutive month (uninterruptedly since the inception), declining
in absolute terms by -4.4% versus -13.6% slump of the market
(9.2pp excess return over the WIG index). The main contributors
to such strong market-relative performance were (i) correctly
identified bottom-fishing bets placed on JWC and ABS, as well
as (ii) maintained long positions in our “traditional” defensive
exposures in Mercor, PBG, Cyfrowy Polsat, Farmacol, Świecie,
Netia and Budimex. Since the inception (in late March 2008)
our portfolio yielded a negative return of -14.9% (which compares
to a -50.2% tumble of WIG), outperforming the benchmark by 35.3pp.
rt
po
Polish Equities Monthly:
February 2009
Re
Analysts:Sobiesław Pająk, CFA, Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA,
Maciej Wewiórski, Michał Sobolewski, Jakub Viscardi,
Adrian Kyrcz, Łukasz Prokopiuk, Marek Kaźmierczak
Potential top outperformers
Company
Justification
ABS
Excessively sold-out, upside risk related to the 4Q08E results
Asseco Poland Strong results for 4Q08E, high share of LT contracts and maintenance revenues diminishes
cyclicality
Budimex
Healthy profits for 4Q08E, major net cash position, non-cyclical road contruction business
BZWBK
Sound 4Q08E posting (when viewed against the local peers')
Cyfrowy Polsat Strong results for 4Q08E, non-cyclical business
Echo
App. 40% discount to the value of the cash-generating assets, prudent accounting policy,
concerns over exotic derivative structures at the Company not materializing
Farmacol
Low cyclicality of demand, strong 4Q08E operating results, low net debt, share buy back
JWC
Current market cap app. 65% below liquidation value, liquidity crunch unlikely
Mercor
Late-cyclical business (results should stay strong at least till mid-2009E)
Netia
Undemanding valuation, reasonably good visibility of forward financial results, non-cyclical
demand, lack of regulatory risk
PBG
Robust 4Q08E profits, non-cyclical business (environment protection + stadiums), fat backlog
of LT contracts (oil&gas)
PGF
Speculative bet on the 4Q08E positive earnings surprise
Pekao
The most cost-conscious, profitability-oriented and conservative among the WSE-listed banks
PKO
Possibly oversold, healthy 4Q08E posting (when viewed against the local peers')
PKN Orlen
With investors' attention shifting towards cash-flow generation abilities (the uncertainties
regarding the 4Q08 losses were cleared by the management's pre-emptive disclosure), the
Company may start to be perceived favorably (cash freed from NWC, sound PLN-denominated
refining margins)
Polnord
Liquidation value materially above current market cap
Świecie
Historical „buy at PLN 30 per share, sell at PLN 90 per share” rule suggests that now is the
buying time, the improvement on the cost side should offset lower prices of paper charged
already for 4Q08E
Teta
Strong results for 4Q08E, no signs of a slowdown till 1H09E-end
Source: DM IDMSA
Potential top underperformers
Company
Agora
Justification
Feeble results for at least next few quarters, portfolio of predominantly traditional media
assets looks gruesome in the context of the economic down-cycle period
Decora
Weak 4Q08E financial showing (losses on revaluation of FX-denominated debt)
Emperia
Weak 4Q08E results (factors adversely affecting the 3Q08 showing presisting)
Kęty
The management's original FY08 guidance to be missed chiefly due to the December
performance, which may imply that the hardship has just began
Lena
Concerns regarding softer demand in the coming quarters (export markets), hedging to offset
the otherwise beneficial impact of stronger Euro
Millenium
High exposure to currency options, drastic change of the corporate strategic goals, large
FX-denominated mortgage portfolio
Police
Losses for 4Q08-1Q09E, unfavorable product mix for a weak global macro environment
Synthos
Very weak 4Q08E results (likely losses)
Vistula Group Huge ST net debt, restructuring risk
Source: DM IDMSA
Market scenario & key parameters
1. 4Q08E net earnings: (i) pooled (unadjusted) net earnings of the companies in our coverage in the negative
territory (PLN -850 million; due to huge (inventory-revaluation-driven) losses at oil companies), (ii) -21% yoy
contraction of one-offs-adjusted recurring EPS of the broad market (weighted by the weights in WIG index).
Contraction of market’s recurring EPS (yoy) envisaged for at least two further quarters (1-2Q09).
2. Broad market’s (WIG-weights-weighted) FY08/ FY09/ FY10 recurring EPS yoy growth forecast at +0.4% (down
from +3.1% month ago)/-11.7% (down from -5.3% month ago)/ +11% (yet only +1.8% excl. oil&gas); the risk
regarding forward corporate earnings remaining high.
3. 2008E/2009E/2010E P/E for WIG (based on recurring earnings) =10.0x/10.8x/10.5x.
4. 2009E eop WIG Index fundamental value assessment: 30-33 ths. (down from 35.2-38.0 ths. month ago);
please note, however, that this value assessment is contingent upon our current corporate earnings forecasts,
which are subject to material downside risk.
aaOur portfolio for the coming month is subject to moderate
turnover. As far as longs are concerned, (i) we add PKN Orlen,
PKO, Pekao, Echo and PGF, (ii) with Cersanit, Multimedia, GTC
and HBP removed from the next month’s list. Police is the sole new
entrant on the other side of the spectrum (prime underperformer),
with Lotos being removed from the potential laggards list; please
refer to the right-hand-side figures regarding the complete lists
of next month’s potential outperformers and underperformers.
Contents
1. Expected top out- and underperformers. . . . . . . . . 7
1.1. General rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2. Past month performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3. Positioning for the next month. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Company section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Aluminium products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Kęty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
BRE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
BZWBK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Handlowy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
ING BSK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Kredyt Bank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Millennium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Pekao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
PKO BP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Chemicals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Police . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Puławy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Synthos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Budimex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Energomontaż Południe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Hydrobudowa Polska. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
PBG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Pol-Aqua. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Polimex-Mostostal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Construction materials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Barlinek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Ceramika Nowa Gala. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Cersanit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Decora . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Lena Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Mercor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
IT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Asseco Business Solutions (ABS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Asseco Poland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
ComArch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
InfoVide Matrix (IVMX). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Teta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Media & Entertainment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Agora . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Cyfrowy Polsat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Multimedia Polska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
TVN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Mining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
KGHM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Oil & Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Lotos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
PKN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Pharmaceuticals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Farmacol. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
PGF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Pulp & Paper. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Świecie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Real estate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Echo Investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
GTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Residential construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Dom Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
J.W. Construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Polnord. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Retail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Alma Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Bomi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Emperia Holding. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Inter Cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Vistula Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Telecommunications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Netia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
TP SA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendix;
IDM’s coverage universe valuation table. . . . . . . . . . . 41
Analyst:
Sobiesław Pająk, CFA,
[email protected],
+48 (22) 489 94 70
1.
Expected top out- and underperformers
1.1.
General rules
Our list of potential top out- and underperformers (introduced ten months ago) encompasses equity
plays within our coverage spectrum, which for specified reasons should fare (over the short-run)
better and worse than the market (measured by the broad WIG index), respectively, and where
taking active bets (divergent from the aforementioned benchmark weights) ought to enhance the
portfolio performance. To keep us accountable for these calls, we track their performance (please
refer to the following section regarding the discussion of the January performance) on a quasiportfolio monthly basis (long part of the portfolio for the potentially outperforming picks (adding
value when faring better than the WIG index and vice versa) and short part of the portfolio
for the potentially underperforming ideas (adding value when faring worse than the WIG index and
vice versa)), though we want to stress that we do not strive to construct any kind of a model portfolio
which should be replicated in a real life (our portfolios – encompassing only the strongest ideas
– may be impractically concentrated or benchmark-divergent from an institutional investor’s point
of view). The main aims of our monthly exercise are as follows: (i) signal the ideas where diverging
(either way) from the benchmark weightings may produce excess return, and (ii) check whether
these ideas of ours perform or not.
1.2.
Past month performance
Last month our portfolio outperformed the market (for the 10th consecutive month, uninterruptedly
since the portfolio’s inception) by 9.2pp (in absolute terms its value declined by -4.4%, compared
to a -13.6% slump of the WIG index). In terms of the particular exposures, we benefited from (i) heavy
market-relative underweight in the banking sector (6% weight in our portfolio versus 27% weighting
in WIG), (ii) correctly identified excessively-sold-out rebound stories (JW Construction, ABS),
(iii) good performance of our “seasoned” defensive equity bets (PBG, Budimex, Cyfrowy Polsat,
Farmacol, Netia, Świecie, Mercor), and (iv) correctly shorted Agora and Millenium; please refer
to Figures 1-2 regarding the details. In terms of % accuracy of our company-specific bets last month,
we are also reasonably happy with 70% of our active positions performing in line with the envisaged
direction.
The cumulative (i.e. since the inception at the end of March 2008) market-relative performance
of our top potential out- and underperformers portfolio is reasonably satisfactory, the way we see
it, with absolute negative rate of return of -14.9% (versus -50.2% slump of the WIG benchmark)
translating into 35.3pp market-relative outperformance over the course of past ten months (please
refer to Figure 3 regarding the details).
????????????????????????
7
Fig. 1 January 2009 IDM’s top potential outperformers and underperformers portfolio – performance attribution
Company
LONGs
BZWBK
Cersanit
Mercor
Budimex
Hydrobudowa Polska
PBG
ABS
Asseco Poland
Teta
Cyfrowy Polsat
Multimedia
Farmacol
Świecie
GTC
JW. Construction
Polnord
Netia
Sum
SHORTs
Kęty
Millennium
Synthos
Decora
Lena
Agora
Lotos
Emperia
Vistula Group
Sum
Total
Weight
Absolute
performance
Relative
performance
Performance
contribution
Relative
performance
contribution
7.0%
4.0%
7.0%
4.0%
3.0%
12.0%
8.0%
11.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.0%
10.0%
7.0%
7.0%
5.0%
5.0%
7.0%
-24.9%
-34.2%
4.1%
1.7%
-3.3%
-1.4%
19.7%
-10.9%
-18.8%
9.3%
-8.5%
-9.4%
-3.5%
-12.9%
20.0%
-23.5%
-2.7%
-11.3%
-20.6%
17.7%
15.3%
10.3%
12.2%
33.3%
2.7%
-5.2%
22.9%
5.1%
4.2%
10.1%
0.7%
33.6%
-9.9%
10.9%
-1.7%
-1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
1.6%
-1.2%
-0.8%
0.5%
-0.3%
-0.9%
-0.2%
-0.9%
1.0%
-1.2%
-0.2%
-0.79%
-0.82%
1.24%
0.61%
0.31%
1.46%
2.66%
0.30%
-0.21%
1.14%
0.15%
0.42%
0.71%
0.05%
1.68%
-0.49%
0.76%
9.18%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-7.8%
-29.1%
-8.5%
-11.8%
-16.4%
-26.0%
-22.1%
3.1%
-1.3%
5.8%
-15.5%
5.1%
1.8%
-2.8%
-12.4%
-8.5%
16.7%
12.3%
0.08%
0.29%
0.09%
0.12%
0.16%
0.26%
0.22%
-0.03%
0.01%
100.0%
-4.4%
9.2%
-4.45%
-0.06%
0.16%
-0.05%
-0.02%
0.03%
0.12%
0.08%
-0.17%
-0.12%
-0.03%
9.16%
Source: DM IDMSA
Fig. 2 January 2009 performance of IDM’s top potential outperformers
and top potential underperformers portfolio
Source: GPW, DM IDMSA estimates
8
Fig. 3 IDM's top potential outperformers and underperformers portfolio;
performance since the inception
Source: GPW, DM IDM SA estimates
????????????????????????
1.3.
Positioning for the next month
In constructing our February portfolio – similarly to the preceding three months – we look at such
features as cyclicality of a given sector, defensiveness of a given company business model, operating
cash flows, financial leverage and net FX exposure. Second, with the 4Q08 earnings reporting
season already started, we account for the envisaged quarterly earnings component when making
our choices. Third, we continue to believe that it may prove worthwhile to introduce some potential
share-price-rebound bets into the portfolio (this manoeuvre proved strongly value-enhancing last
month).
Coming into details, following the disposal of HBP (please refer to our research report 18/2009/RP (28)
of January 25, 2009) and GTC (please see our Daily research report of January 30, 2009), from our
potential outperformers’ list we remove the equities of:
Cersanit (on the back of material downside risk related to its 4Q08-1Q09 financial results), and
aa
Multimedia (the one-off huge dividend payout – prime potential positive trigger at the Company
aa
– appears unlikely in the short term),
adding simultaneously:
Echo (following pre-emptive disclosure by the management, concerns regarding existence
aa
of exotic derivative structure at the Company evaporated, the Company’s market capitalization
lies, according to our estimates, app. 40% below the estimated value of the cash-generating
assets, plus the Company uses prudent accounting principles (high yields applied, no revaluation
gains recognized prior to project’s completion)),
PKN (as the management’s pre-emptive disclosure last week should have removed
aa
the uncertainties regarding the depth of the 4Q08 losses, the investors’ attention should now
shift towards the cash-flow generation ability, which is strong at PKN (cash freed from NWC
on the back of lower crude price)),
PKO (possibly oversold, healthy – when viewed against local peers – 4Q08E financial showing),
aa
Pekao (most cost-conscious, profitability-oriented and conservative among the WSE-listed
aa
banks), and
PGF (the Company’s management FY08 NP forecast implies good 4Q08E results (with NP
aa
almost flat yoy and 9x up qoq); we doubt that the market believes in the Company’s management
FY08 NP forecast, therefore if actual FY08 NP turns out to be close to the forecasted, we would
expect positive surprise, and if the management announces a downward revision of their FY08
NP forecast, the market will not be negatively surprised, in our view),
and maintaining our long positions in Asseco Poland, JW Construction, PBG, Budimex, Mercor,
Cyfrowy Polsat, Farmacol, Netia, Świecie, Teta, ABS, BZWBK and Polnord; please refer
to Figure 4 regarding the details of the February 2009 long portfolio composition.
On the other hand of the spectrum:
there is one new addition (Police) to our potential laggards list (deep losses for 4Q08E and –
aa
most likely – also for 1Q09E, unfavorable product mix for a weak global macro environment),
we remove Lotos (following the management’s pre-emptive disclosure last week, deep losses for
aa
4Q08 are unlikely to surprise anyone, we believe) from the prime underperformers spectrum, and
we maintain short positions in the remaining eight (out of nine) past month’s short bets – Kęty,
aa
Lena, Agora, Emperia, Vistula, Millenium, Synthos, and Decora; please refer to Figure 5
regarding the details of short portfolio composition for February.
????????????????????????
9
Fig. 4 February 2009 top potential outperformers and underperformers portfolio
Company
Sector
LONGs
BZWBK
Pekao
PKO BP
Banks
Banks
Banks
3%
10%
10%
Mercor
Construction materials
10%
Budimex
General construction
6%
PBG
General construction
11%
ABS
IT
Asseco Poland IT
Teta
IT
Weight Purchase Rationale
price
(PLN/shr)
1%
15%
4%
Cyfrowy Polsat Media &
Entertainment
3%
PKN Orlen
Oil & Gas
9%
Farmacol
Pharmaceuticals
2%
PGF
Świecie
Pharmaceuticals
Pulp & Paper
2%
3%
Echo
Real estate
9%
JW
Construction
Polnord
Residential
Construction
Residential
Construction
10%
Netia
Telecommunications
84.00 (i) Healthy 4Q08E posting (when viewed against the local peers')
99.50 (i) The most cost-conscious, profitability-oriented and conservative among the WSE-listed banks
25.50 (i) Possibly oversold following past month's share price decline, (ii) healthy 4Q08E posting (when
viewed against the local peers')
25.50 (i) Results should remain strong at least till the 1H09E-end, due to late-cyclicality of the Company's
business and some high-margin contracts (oil sector) on the horizon
56.00 (i) Healthy results for 4Q08E, (ii) major net cash position in balance sheet, (iii) largely (though not
exclusively) non-cyclical business, due to huge planned (and already partially back-logged) outlays
for road construction (co-financed by EU)
208.50 (i) Strong profits for 4Q08E, (ii) risk to management's FY08 forecast on the upside, (iii) non-cyclical
business: EU-funded environmental protection infrastructure contracts + Euro 2012 stadiums,
(iv) fat backlog of large LT contracts (oli&gas sector)
6.39 (i) Excessively sold-out, (ii) risk related to the 4Q08E profits rather on the upside
43.40 (i) Strong earnings momentum for 4Q08E, (ii) high share of advanced LT contracts and high-margin
recurring maintenance revenues in overall business mix should diminish the cyclicality of financial
results
6.98 (i) Very strong results for 4Q08E (c. 40% yoy NP growth), (ii) no signs of a slowdown in the project
pipeline (visibility till 2Q09-end)
15.30 (i) Strong financial showing for 4Q08E, (ii) DTH should prove quite resistant to economic slowdown,
as pay-TV appears to have become a product satisfying the very basic (i.e. unlikely to be given up)
needs of Poles
22.70 (i) Following management's pre-emptive disclosure last week, the release of deep losses for 4Q08
should not impact share market price, (ii) with investors' attention shifting now towards cash-flow
generation abilities, the Company may start to be perceived favorably (cash freed from NWC
on the back of lower crude price), (iii) local-currency-denominated refining margins sound (helped
by PLN weakening)
23.20 (i) Low cyclicality of demand, (ii) likely strong operating financial results (top line + EBIT) for 4Q08E,
(iii) low net debt, (iv) share buy back
19.00 (i) Speculative bet on the 4Q08E positive earnings suprise
39.08 (i) Historical „buy at PLN 30 per share, sell at PLN 90 per share” rule suggests that now is the buying time,
(ii) the improvement on the cost side should offset lower prices of paper charged already for 4Q08E
2.06 (i) Following pre-emptive disclosure by the management, concerns regarding existence of exotic
derivative structure at the Company evaporated, (ii) app. 40% discount to the value of the cashgenerating assets, (iii) prudent accounting policy (high yields applied, no revaluation gains recognized
prior to project's completion)
5.40 (i) Current market cap app. 65% below liquidation value, (ii) liquidity crunch unlikely, in our view
1%
22.95 (i) Liquidation value (land less net debt) materially above current market cap, (ii) low risk of being left
with unmarketable inventory of dwellings
4%
2.51 (i) Undemanding valuation, (ii) reasonably good visibility of forward results, (iii) non-cyclical demand,
(iv) not plagued with the regulatory risk (contrary to the incumbent)
Source: DM IDMSA
10
????????????????????????
Fig. 5 February 2009 top potential outperformers and underperformers portfolio (continued)
Company
Sector
Weight Purchase Rationale
price
(PLN/shr)
SHORTs
Kęty
Aluminium Products
-2%
Millenium
Banks
-1%
Police
Chemicals
-4%
Synthos
Decora
Chemicals
Construction Materials
-1%
-1%
Lena
Construction Materials
-1%
Agora
Media &
Entertainment
-1%
Emperia
Retail
-1%
Vistula Group
Retail
-1%
58.40 (i) The management's original FY08 guidance to be missed chiefly due to the December performance,
which may imply that the hardship has just began and may inflict on the financial performance in the
coming quarters
1.90 (i) High exposure of currency options likely to materially inflict on the 4Q08 financial showing, (ii) drastic
change of the corporate strategic goals, (iii) large FX-denominated mortgage portfolio (higher default risk)
4.50 (i) Deep losses for 4Q08E and – most likely – also for 1Q09E, (ii) unfavorable product mix for a weak
global macro environment
0.43 (i) Very weak 4Q08E results (losses are likely, in our view)
7.50 (i) Expected weak 4Q08 financial showing (deep financial losses on revaluation of FX-denominated
debt expected)
0.92 (i) Concerns regarding softer demand in the coming quarters (export markets), (ii) hedging to offset
the otherwise beneficial impact of stronger Euro
12.80 (i) Portfolio of predominantly traditional media assets looks gruesome in the context of the economic
slack period (in times of economic hardships and trimming advertising budgets, print is cut first and
by most), (ii) expected series of deteriorating yoy quarterly results ahead of us
55.30 (i) Factors standing behind unexpectedly feeble 3Q08 financial results of the Company are of recurring
nature; hence, they are likely to adversely affect the 4Q08E numbers
2.35 (i) Huge ST net debt, (ii) restructuring risk
Source: DM IDMSA
????????????????????????
11
Company section
Please note that the multiples are based on adjusted profits.
Multiples priced as of the close of February 5, 2009.
Aluminium products
Banks
Analyst: Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 78
Analyst: Michał Sobolewski, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 77
Kęty
BRE
Sector: Aluminium products
Fundamental rating: Sell (→) Market relative: Underweight (→) Price: PLN 58.4
12M EFV: PLN 59.0 (→) Market Cap.: US$ 151 m
Reuters code: KETY.WA
Av. daily turnover: US$ 0.27 m
Free float: 100%
12M range: PLN 49.50-134.80
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Underweight (→) Price: PLN 128.0
12M EFV: PLN 183.6 (→) Key data
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Gross dividend yield
Number of shares (eop)
Market Cap.: US$ 1,069 m
Reuters code: BREP.WA
Free float: 30%
12M range: PLN 114.80-447.20
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,165.3
189.2
128.1
65.3
7.1
-33
86.3
362.3
8.2
4.3
4.8
7.0
7.7
9,226
2009E
1,053.6
169.5
107.0
67.5
7.3
3
90.4
286.6
8.0
4.1
4.9
7.7
0.0
9,226
2010E
1,118.7
179.3
112.0
74.1
8.0
10
91.1
237.8
7.3
3.8
4.3
6.9
5.0
9,226
2011E
1,175.3
186.6
115.7
78.9
8.6
6
87.3
193.8
6.8
3.6
3.9
6.3
5.5
9,226
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Earnings before prov.
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE/ (P/BV)
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008
1,392.5
551.5
2,686.4
1,136.3
857.5
28.89
20
141.9
0.8
4.1
26.9
0.0
29,691
2009E
1,533.0
559.9
2,591.0
1,117.5
463.1
15.58
-46
157.4
0.8
7.7
13.7
0.0
29,712
2010E
1,593.9
596.7
2,715.2
1,214.3
515.4
17.35
11
174.8
0.7
6.9
15.3
0.0
29,712
2011E
1,641.7
620.6
2,809.3
1,267.6
682.9
22.99
33
197.8
0.6
5.2
20.4
0.0
29,712
Source: DM IDMSA estimates
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
15
Banks
Banks
BZWBK
Handlowy
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Overweight (→) Price: PLN 84.0
12M EFV: PLN 118.4 (→) Market Cap.: US$ 1,723 m
Reuters code: BZWB.WA
Free float: 30%
12M range: PLN 77.00-190.00
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Sell (→) Market relative: Neutral (→) Price: PLN 31.5
IFRS, consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Earnings before prov.
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE/ (P/BV)
Number of shares
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,638.9
1376.0
3,255.3
1,486.9
988.6
13.55
4
69.1
1.1
5.7
18.9
3.9
72,960
2009E
1,693.8
1319.3
3,212.0
1,369.2
714.0
9.76
-28
78.7
1.0
7.9
13.5
0.0
73,160
2010E
1,787.8
1397.3
3,388.9
1,461.6
782.9
10.70
10
89.4
0.9
7.2
14.8
0.0
73,160
2011E
1,820.9
1492.1
3,521.7
1,532.0
939.6
12.84
20
102.2
0.8
6.0
17.8
0.0
73,160
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Earnings bef. provisions
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE / (P/BV)
Number of shares
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
16
Reuters code: BAHA.WA
Free float: 25%
12M range: PLN 29.15-94.50
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,317.5
624.7
2,518.1
986.5
711.7
5.45
-14
43.6
0.7
5.5
18.4
15.9
130,660
2009E
1,266.4
628.5
2,454.0
924.0
557.9
4.27
-22
45.4
0.7
7.0
14.6
8.3
130,660
2010E
1,279.1
659.9
2,505.7
947.2
566.2
4.33
1
49.7
0.6
6.9
15.2
0.0
130,660
2011E
1,292.5
692.9
2,559.9
943.7
626.0
4.79
11
54.5
0.5
6.2
16.8
0.0
130,661
????????????????????????
Banks
Banks
ING BSK
Kredyt Bank
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Neutral (→) Price: PLN 300.0
Reuters code: SLAS.WA
Free float: 25%
12M range: PLN 273.00-632.50
Sector: Banks
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Earnings before provisions
Net Income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE (P/BV)
Number of shares
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
1,146.9
872.3
2,128.1
555.3
480.6
36.94
-24
320.4
0.9
7.6
13.7
4.2
13.0
2009E
1,215.1
822.0
2,359.8
742.1
452.0
34.74
-6
355.1
0.8
8.1
13.0
0.0
13.0
2010E
1,274.6
859.5
2,476.5
779.1
476.7
36.64
5
391.7
0.7
7.6
13.7
0.0
13.0
2011E
1,313.0
898.9
2,574.4
805.1
564.3
38.47
5
420.5
0.7
7.3
16.0
5.2
13.0
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE/(P/BV)
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
Market Cap.: US$ 440 m
Reuters code: BKRE.WA
Free float: 15%
12M range: PLN 5.67-23.00
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
1,057.8
294.0
1,623.1
516.9
325.8
1.20
-17
9.1
0.6
4.8
21.9
9.1
272
2009E
1,112.9
329.6
1,690.6
564.7
163.4
0.60
-50
9.7
0.6
9.5
10.9
0.0
272
2010E
1,139.3
355.9
1,746.6
581.0
179.9
0.66
10
10.3
0.6
8.6
12.0
0.0
272
2011E
1,146.1
380.8
1,794.7
595.2
311.0
1.14
73
11.5
0.5
5.0
21.1
0.0
272
17
Banks
Banks
Millennium
Pekao
Sector: Banks
Reuters code: BIGW.WA
Free float: 35%
12M range: PLN 1.81-8.70
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (→) Price: PLN 99.5
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Net Income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE/ (P/BV)
Number of shares
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
%
%
m
2008E
971.8
472.5
1,918.8
716.1
414.8
0.49
-10
3.3
0.6
3.7
28.3
0.0
849.2
2009E
959.6
453.0
1,713.1
489.7
194.6
0.23
-53
3.5
0.5
7.9
13.1
0.0
849.2
2010E
986.2
472.6
1,778.5
523.2
226.0
0.27
16
3.8
0.5
6.8
15.2
0.0
849.2
2011E
1,025.9
467.8
1,835.0
561.4
337.1
0.40
49
4.2
0.4
4.6
23.0
0.0
849.2
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE / (P/BV)
Number of shares
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
18
Reuters code: BAPE.WA
Free float: 41%
12M range: PLN 95.00-208.40
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
4,546.8
2,316.2
8,254.9
4,442.9
3,506.5
13.37
9
60.0
1.6
7.3
14.2
11.2
262,213
2009E
4,650.1
2,339.3
7,828.1
4,096.9
2,633.9
10.05
-25
63.4
1.5
9.7
10.6
6.9
262,213
2010E
4,905.1
2,456.3
8,246.3
4,440.4
2,854.6
10.89
8
74.3
1.3
8.9
12.1
0.0
262,213
2011E
4,998.9
2,603.7
8,535.9
4,653.9
3,133.1
11.95
10
86.2
1.1
8.1
13.2
0.0
262,213
????????????????????????
Banks
Chemicals
Analyst: Łukasz Prokopiuk, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 72
PKO BP
Police
Sector: Banks
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (↑) Price: PLN 25.5
Reuters code: PKOB.WA
Free float: 49%
12M range: PLN 24.40-52.50
Sector: Chemicals
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Net interest income
F&C income
Total income
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
BVPS
P/BV
P/E
ROE / (P/BV)
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
5,993.8
2,348.6
9,272.1
5,007.1
3,469.7
3.47
19
14.3
1.7
7.1
15.4
4.4
1,000.0
2009E
5,820.2
2,477.2
8,949.1
4,528.1
2,552.9
2.55
-26
16.9
1.5
9.6
11.2
0.0
1,000.0
2010E
6,215.3
2,557.9
9,480.8
4,855.9
2,804.5
2.80
10
19.7
1.3
8.8
12.3
0.0
1,000.0
2011E
6,455.4
2,620.7
9,829.6
5,043.0
3,253.0
3.25
16
22.9
1.1
7.6
14.2
0.0
1,000.0
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
Reuters code: PICE.WA
Free float: 32%
12M range: PLN 4.20-25.34
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
2,529.1
276.7
212.6
39.8
0.53
-80
-118.5
-159.6
7.9
0.6
0.7
0.0
75,000
2009E
1,689.9
6.1
-58.1
-65.1
-0.87
n.m.
-60.3
42.4
neg.
59.0
neg.
0.0
75,000
2010E
1,875.9
169.5
91.4
80.0
1.07
n.m.
62.4
25.7
3.9
2.0
3.7
0.0
75,000
2011E
1,866.2
164.3
81.5
72.6
0.97
-9
68.0
19.6
4.3
2.0
4.1
0.0
75,000
19
Chemicals
Chemicals
Puławy
Synthos
Sector: Chemicals
Reuters code: PULW.WA
Free float: 39.4%
12M range: PLN 38.1-145.90
Sector: Chemicals
Key data
PAS unconsolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Reuters code: DWOR.WA
Free float: 44%
12M range: PLN 0.36-1.37
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
%
ths.
2007/08
2,503.5
437.4
358.8
330.8
17.31
-8
152.6
-515.6
2.3
0.6
0.7
4.2
19,115
2008/09E
2,177.4
320.1
247.7
117.4
6.14
-65
14.0
-489.5
6.6
0.9
1.2
10.6
19,115
2009/10E
2,132.7
161.1
86.1
94.1
4.92
-20
30.9
-511.1
8.2
1.6
3.1
4.1
19,115
2010/11E
2,222.0
159.1
82.3
101.6
5.32
8
-33.4
-477.1
7.6
1.9
3.6
3.6
19,115
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
Adj net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
2,886.6
326.7
201.0
143.5
133.9
0.10
111
35.5
242.8
3.9
2.3
3.8
0.0
1,323
2009E
2,908.9
302.8
175.9
118.2
118.2
0.09
-12
49.1
168.5
4.4
2.3
3.9
0.0
1,323
2010E
2,677.7
264.9
126.3
79.0
79.0
0.06
-33
44.8
148.1
6.5
2.5
5.3
0.0
1,323
2011E
3,270.4
355.0
208.3
148.0
148.0
0.11
87
36.6
128.0
3.5
1.8
3.1
0.0
1,323
Adjusted net income excludes the effect of tax exemption (2008) and the effect of accounting gains on the sale
of K-Protos (2008).
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
20
????????????????????????
Construction
Construction
Analyst: Adrian Kyrcz, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 74
Budimex
Energomontaż
Południe
Sector: Construction
Reuters code: BMEX.WA
Free float: 41%
12M range: PLN 50.65-93.00
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
3,278.0
134.1
111.5
96.4
3.78
540
-179.9
14.6
11.8
9.1
11.0
0.4
0.0
25,530
2009E
3,495.5
147.6
124.2
98.0
3.84
2
-273.8
14.3
11.6
7.7
9.1
0.3
0.0
25,530
2010E
3,906.0
177.4
153.4
123.7
4.85
26
-380.1
11.4
9.5
5.8
6.7
0.3
0.0
25,530
2011E
4,196.1
198.9
172.3
141.9
5.56
15
-509.1
9.9
8.3
4.5
5.2
0.2
0.0
25,530
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
Reuters code: EMPD.WA
Free float: 61%
12M range: PLN 1.86-3.99
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
249.9
33.8
29.3
14.6
0.31
8
88.8
8.1
6.3
6.2
7.1
0.8
3.7
47,544
2009E
272.3
25.8
20.9
13.9
0.29
-5
34.4
8.5
6.4
6.0
7.4
0.6
4.6
47,544
2010E
296.8
28.1
22.9
15.2
0.32
10
33.5
7.8
5.9
5.5
6.7
0.5
4.3
47,544
2011E
332.4
31.5
26.0
18.2
0.38
20
33.1
6.5
5.1
4.9
5.9
0.5
4.7
47,544
21
Construction
Construction
Hydrobudowa Polska PBG
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Neutral (→) Price: PLN 5.59
12M EFV: PLN 8.53 (→) Sector: Construction
Reuters code: HBWL.WA
Free float: 39%
12M range: PLN 5.25-9.40
Key data
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,228.1
78.9
65.0
55.7
0.26
-9
99.8
19.8
15.9
15.3
18.5
1.0
0.0
210,558
2009E
1,754.5
166.7
147.1
113.9
0.54
104
238.8
9.7
8.3
8.1
9.1
0.8
0.0
210,558
2010E
2,089.3
220.8
198.2
145.5
0.69
28
241.6
7.6
6.6
6.1
6.8
0.6
0.0
210,558
2011E
2,480.9
270.6
245.5
187.6
0.89
30
218.8
5.9
5.2
4.9
5.4
0.5
0.0
210,558
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
22
Reuters code: PBGG.WA
Free float: 67%
12M range: PLN 175.30-331.00
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
2,108.9
264.5
220.6
148.7
11.07
46
638.8
18.1
14.0
12.6
15.1
1.6
0.0
13,430
2009E
2,692.4
370.8
324.1
197.5
14.71
33
659.5
13.7
11.1
9.1
10.4
1.2
0.0
13,430
2010E
3,559.4
510.4
462.2
297.2
22.13
50
675.5
9.1
7.8
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.0
13,430
2011E
4,556.2
654.9
605.3
393.2
29.28
30
618.4
6.9
6.1
5.1
5.5
0.7
0.0
13,430
????????????????????????
Construction
Construction
Pol-Aqua
Polimex-Mostostal
Reuters code: PQAA.WA
Free float: 53%
12M range: PLN 14.49-85.45
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (→)
Price: PLN 2.2
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy change
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (ths)
Reuters code: MOSD.WA
Free float: 88%
12M range: PLN 2.02-8.28
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,194.5
115.8
65.4
50.4
1.83
0
46.6
7.9
4.0
3.8
6.8
0.0
27,500
2009E
1,283.5
131.4
74.2
56.9
2.07
13
7.1
7.0
3.5
3.1
5.5
0.0
27,500
2010E
1,399.3
152.0
89.7
69.9
2.54
23
-36.1
5.7
3.0
2.4
4.0
0.0
27,500
2011E
1,523.8
149.2
98.1
77.2
2.81
10
-115.9
5.2
3.1
1.9
2.9
0.0
27,500
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
4,261
296.6
234.0
125.3
0.3
20
599.1
7.1
5.8
5.1
6.4
0.4
2.7
464,356
2009E
5,135
316.4
243.8
139.5
0.3
6
605.2
6.7
5.5
4.9
6.3
0.3
3.0
464,356
2010E
5,765
365.6
288.8
181.2
0.4
30
515.1
5.2
4.4
4.0
5.0
0.3
3.9
464,356
2011E
6,441
407.9
327.3
226.0
0.5
25
392.8
4.2
3.6
3.3
4.1
0.2
4.8
464,356
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
23
Barlinek
Ceramika Nowa Gala
Sector: Construction materials
Reuters code: BRLN.WA
Free float: 31%
12M range: PLN 1.47-14.69
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
Number of shares
Reuters code: CERM.WA
Free float: 81%
12M range: PLN 2.34-4.80
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
515.4
134.1
81.1
-19.3
-0.13
n.m.
-116.7
578.9
n.m.
6.5
5.9
9.8
1.5
0.0
145,170
2009E
566.7
118.1
66.1
33.3
0.23
n.m.
64.3
544.3
6.5
2.6
6.5
11.5
1.3
0.0
145,170
2010E
622.0
130.6
76.9
45.5
0.31
37
69.8
503.0
4.8
2.2
5.5
9.4
1.2
0.0
145,170
2011E
666.5
139.3
80.2
51.0
0.35
12
61.3
467.8
4.3
2.0
4.9
8.5
1.0
0.0
145,170
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy change
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
198.2
50.1
31.3
21.7
0.40
51
5.3
77.8
6.4
3.4
4.3
6.9
3.9
54,536
2009E
192.8
46.3
26.2
18.0
0.33
-17
36.9
55.5
7.7
3.6
4.2
7.4
5.7
54,536
2010E
215.2
48.5
27.7
20.5
0.38
14
24.3
39.1
6.8
3.4
3.7
6.4
4.7
54,536
2011E
240.8
52.5
30.3
23.6
0.43
15
22.4
24.3
5.9
3.0
3.1
5.4
5.4
54,536
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
24
????????????????????????
Cersanit
Decora
Reuters code: CRSA.WA
Free float: 51%
12M range: PLN 8.30-31.80
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net Income
EPS
EPS yoy change
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Reuters code: DCOR.WA
Free float: 46%
12M range: PLN 7.40-37.50
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,609.7
354.6
247.2
68.2
0.47
-48
-106.1
909.5
17.9
7.0
6.0
8.6
0.0
144,259
2009E
1,793.1
410.1
278.8
146.4
1.02
115
215.1
775.3
8.3
4.4
4.9
7.2
0.0
144,259
2010E
1,886.7
417.6
283.7
183.7
1.27
25
283.8
537.7
6.7
3.8
4.2
6.2
0.0
144,259
2011E
1,991.8
427.4
295.7
202.5
1.40
10
272.9
300.3
6.0
3.7
3.6
5.1
0.0
144,259
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
307.3
39.9
30.4
3.1
0.28
-87
8.4
82.7
28.2
7.0
4.3
5.6
3.8
11,307
2009E
332.8
41.2
30.9
12.9
1.14
312
8.8
85.0
6.8
3.8
4.2
5.6
0.0
11,307
2010E
342.1
44.2
32.9
23.4
2.07
81
20.3
70.3
3.8
2.5
3.6
4.8
2.2
11,307
2011E
362.2
46.1
34.0
21.9
1.94
-6
18.2
56.6
4.0
2.6
3.1
4.3
4.1
11,307
Adj EBITDA, EBIT, PBT and NI exclude the impact of IFRS2 SOCs.
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
25
Analyst: Maciej Wewiórski, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 62
Lena Lighting
Mercor
12M EFV: PLN 1.2 (→) Sector: Construction materials
Reuters code: LENA.WA
Free float: 41%
12M range: PLN 0.91-4.79
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
123.9
14.1
9.8
3.4
0.14
-54
17.6
6.7
3.0
2.9
4.1
0.3
0.0
24,875
2009E
127.8
11.7
7.5
4.6
0.19
37
22.2
4.9
2.6
3.8
6.0
0.4
0.0
24,875
2010E
141.3
12.8
8.6
5.0
0.20
8
24.7
4.5
2.5
3.7
5.5
0.3
0.0
24,875
2011E
145.6
13.1
8.8
5.0
0.20
0
22.3
4.6
2.5
3.4
5.1
0.3
0.0
24,875
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
26
Reuters code: MRCA.WA
Free float: 42%
12M range: PLN 22.37-48.00
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
466.4
81.5
70.1
47.7
3.05
57
196.1
8.2
6.6
7.2
8.4
1.3
0.0
15,659
2009E
538.3
88.8
77.9
49.4
3.16
4
143.6
8.0
6.5
6.0
6.9
1.0
0.0
15,659
2010E
533.1
75.4
64.2
41.6
2.66
-16
100.1
9.4
7.4
6.5
7.7
0.9
0.0
15,659
2011E
551.8
73.9
62.7
43.4
2.77
4
60.3
9.1
7.2
6.1
7.2
0.8
0.0
15,659
????????????????????????
IT
IT
Analyst: Sobiesław Pająk, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 70
Asseco Business
Solutions (ABS)
Asseco Poland
Sector: IT
12M EFV: PLN 9.3 (→) Sector: IT
Reuters code: ABSU.WA
Free float: 46%
12M range: PLN 4.30-13.75
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Dividend yield
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
171.8
35.1
25.5
21.2
0.63
34
-34.4
10.1
7.0
5.3
7.4
0.0
33,418
2009E
180.8
38.1
26.6
23.2
0.70
10
-53.4
9.2
6.2
4.2
6.0
2.2
33,418
2010E
196.3
41.0
29.6
26.0
0.78
12
-70.8
8.2
5.7
3.5
4.8
2.2
33,418
Multiples calculated on the basis of proportional consolidation of not wholly-controlled subsidiaries.
Stock performance
2011E
211.6
43.3
30.8
27.4
0.82
6
-89.8
7.8
5.4
2.9
4.0
2.4
33,418
Reuters code: COZW.WA
Free float: 86%
12M range: PLN 43.00-73.50
Guide to adjusted profits
Adj EBITDA and adj EBIT exclude (1) and (2). Adj PBT and adj NI exclude (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5)
(1) = IFRS2 SOCs (2) = cons. goodwill write-offs (3) = gains on dilution of stakes in subs. (4) = valuation of the option
to acquire further stakes in subs. (5) = dividends from subs. (uncons. P&L only).
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
EPS** ***
EPS** *** yoy chng
Net debt *
P/E** ***
P/CE* ** ***
EV/EBITDA* ** ***
EV/EBIT* ** ***
Dividend yield
No. of shares (eop)***
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
tx
%
ths.
2008E
2,808.4
613.3
498.9
327.3
293.1
4.11
47%
-124.2
10.8
8.2
6.0
7.5
1.0
71,348
2009E
2,960.8
640.0
502.9
329.1
329.1
4.61
12%
-347.1
9.6
7.1
5.4
6.9
3.2
71,348
2010E
3,074.8
623.4
484.5
305.5
305.5
4.28
-7%
-504.1
10.4
7.5
5.3
7.0
3.2
71,348
2011E
3,244.3
652.8
511.0
318.9
318.9
4.47
4%
-681.4
10.0
7.2
4.8
6.2
2.7
71,348
* calculated on the basis of proportional consolidation of P&Ls and BSs of subsidiaries in which Asseco Poland does
not/will not hold 100% stakes. ** calculated on the basis of adjusted profits. *** excluding treasury shares.
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
27
IT
IT
ComArch
InfoVide Matrix (IVMX)
Sector: IT
Reuters code: COMH.WA
Free float: 57%
12M range: PLN 47.00-125.30
Sector: IT
12M EFV: PLN 15.2 (→)
Adj EBITDA and adj EBIT exclude the impact of (1). Adj PBT excludes the impact of (1) and (2). Adj NI excludes
the impact of (1), (2) and (3). (1) = IFRS2 SOCs; (2) = gain on disposal of the stake in Interia; (3) P&L creation
(and subsequent amortization) of SEZ-related deferred tax asset.
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
672.2
50.7
56.6
29.0
35.0
183.7
36.1
4.53
-16
-176.1
10.6
6.6
3.6
5.9
0.0
7,961
2009E
826.9
72.2
75.2
37.7
40.7
39.3
39.3
4.94
9
-129.3
9.7
5.2
3.4
6.2
0.0
7,961
2010E
875.2
83.1
84.1
46.5
47.5
45.5
43.5
5.46
11
-179.2
8.8
4.8
2.4
4.3
0.0
7,961
2011E
905.7
90.0
90.0
48.1
48.1
48.6
48.6
6.10
12
-239.3
7.9
4.2
1.6
3.0
0.0
7,961
Reuters code: IMXT.WA
Free float: 11%
12M range: PLN 7.90-34.40
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
223.6
21.8
18.0
14.1
1.19
-14
-8.6
6.9
5.5
4.4
5.5
6.1
11,835
2009E
231.6
26.0
21.7
15.6
1.32
11
-14.4
6.2
4.9
3.6
4.4
5.2
11,835
2010E
243.1
29.0
24.6
17.9
1.51
15
-25.5
5.4
4.4
2.8
3.3
5.8
11,835
2011E
255.1
29.3
25.1
18.4
1.56
3
-36.4
5.3
4.3
2.3
2.8
6.7
11,835
EV and ratios based on proportionally consolidated P&Ls and BSs of subsidiaries in which IVMX holds less than
100% stakes.
Stock performance
Multiples based on adjusted profits.
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
28
????????????????????????
IT
Media & Entertainment
Teta
Agora
Sector: IT
12M EFV: PLN 12.2 (→)
Reuters code: TETA.WA
Free float: 92%
12M range: PLN 6.08-19.24
Sector: Media & Entertainment
12M EFV: PLN 16.7 (→)
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
99.6
24.4
18.2
12.2
1.13
8
23.0
5.9
4.1
4.3
5.8
0.0
10,865
2009E
99.8
23.9
16.2
11.1
1.02
-9
19.3
6.5
4.0
4.3
6.3
8.5
10,865
2010E
100.7
23.3
15.5
10.8
1.00
-2
12.5
6.6
4.1
4.1
6.1
7.7
10,865
2011E
111.2
26.9
17.4
12.8
1.18
18
5.4
5.6
3.4
3.2
4.9
7.5
10,865
Multiples and EV based on proportional consolidation of P&Ls and BSs of subsidiaries, in which Teta holds less than
100% stakes.
Stock performance
Reuters code: AGOD.WA
Free float: 83%
12M range: PLN 11.92-49.74
No factors necessitating adjustments. Please note that the profits of Agora are NOT adjusted for the IFRS2 SOCs;
please refer to report 2/2008/SR (6) regarding the justification of this stance of ours.
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
FCFF
EPS
EPS yoy chng.
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
Net debt
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
x
x
x
x
x
%
PLN m
ths.
2008E
1,282.2
168.0
86.0
43.9
-98.4
0.84
-54%
14.5
5.1
2.9
5.7
14.5
5.1
2.9
5.7
2009E
1,268.3
164.4
80.8
68.2
57.1
1.33
59%
9.1
4.1
2.7
5.4
9.1
4.1
2.7
5.4
2010E
1,285.2
145.5
59.7
50.4
65.3
0.99
-26%
12.3
4.6
2.7
6.6
12.3
4.6
2.7
6.6
2011E
1,348.6
162.8
76.7
65.7
87.0
1.29
30%
9.5
4.1
2.0
4.2
9.5
4.1
2.0
4.2
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
29
Cyfrowy Polsat
Multimedia Polska
Sector: Media & Entertainment Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (→) Price: PLN 15.3
12M EFV: PLN 16.6 (→) Sector: Media & Entertainment
12M EFV: PLN 8.5 (→)
Reuters code: CPSM.WA
Free float: 25%
12M range: PLN 12.00-15.40
Adj EBITDA, adj EBIT, adj PBT and adj NI exclude IFRS2 SOCs.
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
FCFF yield
No. of shares
Stock performance
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
%
ths.
2008E
1,139.7
353.7
324.9
274.4
-207.9
14.3
13.0
10.5
11.5
10.5
1.0
9.5
268,325
2009E
1,344.4
398.1
360.5
301.5
-420.7
13.1
11.7
8.9
9.8
8.9
4.6
11.3
269,694
2010E
1,539.5
489.3
445.6
374.7
-592.7
10.6
9.5
6.9
7.6
6.9
5.0
14.5
271,063
2011E
1,738.8
561.1
514.1
432.9
-772.0
9.2
8.3
5.7
6.3
5.7
6.2
17.4
272,432
Reuters code: MMPA.WA
Free float: 42%
12M range: PLN 5.78-9.85
Adj EBITDA and adj EBIT exclude (1) and (2). Adj NI excludes (1), (2), (3) and (4).
(1) = one-off operating costs and profits (disposal of tangible fixed assets, impairment and liquidation of fixed assets,
consolidation goodwill amortization, etc.); (2) = IFRS2 SOCs; (3) = one-off financial profits (cancellation of licence
liabilities); (4) = impact of deferred tax asset recognition (and amortization) via P&L.
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
FCFF yield
No. of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
%
ths.
2008E
474.8
233.7
236.1
93.3
95.8
57.0
59.9
-101.9
372.5
17.9
5.4
6.1
15.1
negative
negative
3.2
153,190
2009E
526.4
252.3
252.3
101.5
101.5
61.2
64.2
57.0
329.6
16.7
5.1
5.6
13.8
24.6
4.1
0.0
153,190
2010E
586.5
280.8
280.8
113.9
113.9
73.8
76.8
51.4
289.0
14.0
4.5
4.8
11.9
26.5
3.8
0.0
153,190
2011E
638.8
304.0
304.0
126.0
126.0
81.9
87.9
130.7
168.4
12.2
4.1
4.1
9.8
9.5
10.5
0.0
153,190
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
30
????????????????????????
Mining
TVN
KGHM
Sector: Media & Entertainment Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Underweight (→) Price: PLN 10.85
Reuters code: TVNN.WA
Free float: 38%
12M range: PLN 9.38-24.80
Sector: Mining
12M EFV: PLN 38.6 (→) Guide to adjusted profits
Adj EBITDA and adj EBIT exclude (1). Adj PBT and adj NI exclude (1) and (2).
(1) = IFRS2 SOCs; (2) = gains/losses on the valuation of high-yield bonds’ early redemption option (on a pre-tax/
post-tax basis for PBT/NI).
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
FCFF
Net debt
EPS
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,905.2
701.7
739.2
620.3
657.8
360.6
414.7
97.6
1,068.1
1.18
8.7
7.3
6.3
7.1
47.8
4.8
350,450
2009E
2,085.9
711.1
743.6
611.8
644.3
352.1
384.6
-97.0
1,539.8
1.18
8.7
6.9
6.6
7.6
n.m.
5.4
327,160
2010E
2,267.5
809.4
829.4
689.2
709.2
431.4
451.4
318.8
1,512.2
1.38
7.4
5.9
5.9
6.9
15.3
5.2
327,160
2011E
2,484.2
888.5
898.5
756.2
766.2
495.0
505.0
459.8
1,380.8
1.54
6.7
5.3
5.3
6.2
10.3
6.4
327,160
Reuters code: KGHM.WA
Free float: 58%
12M range: PLN 21.40-112.00
Key data
IFRS unconsolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
11,062.2
3,959.9
3,496.2
2,840.1
14.20
-28
-1,480.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
27.7
200,000
2009E
7,245.4
896.0
404.1
300.8
1.50
-89
-1,608.1
21.6
8.2
5.5
12.1
0.7
0.0
200,000
2010E
7,141.5
732.4
214.6
201.3
1.01
-33
-1,755.4
32.3
9.0
6.5
22.1
0.7
0.0
200,000
2011E
7,301.8
830.7
289.1
214.7
1.07
7
-1,960.6
30.3
8.6
5.5
15.7
0.6
0.0
200,000
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
31
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
Lotos
PKN
Sector: Oil&Gas
Reuters code: LOTS.WA
Free float: 41%
12M range: PLN 7.25-38.80
Sector: Oil&Gas
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (↑) Price: PLN 22.7
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Reuters code: PKNA.WA
Free float: 73%
12M range: PLN 19.76-43.40
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
16,777.8
370.2
38.1
-419.0
-3.69
-155
-2,656.9
2,836.0
n.m.
n.m.
10.5
101.9
0.2
0.0
113.7
2009E
17,796.0
607.4
271.7
110.6
0.97
-126
-1,782.1
4,576.9
9.4
2.3
9.2
20.7
0.3
0.0
113.7
2010E
19,055.1
1,384.1
885.4
404.2
3.55
265
-578.3
5,273.0
2.6
1.2
4.6
7.1
0.3
0.0
113.7
2011E
20,469.6
1,487.7
965.4
471.8
4.15
17
521.6
4,843.6
2.2
1.0
4.0
6.1
0.3
0.0
113.7
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
EBIT (LIFO)
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
m
2008E
81,501.1
4,107.7
1,617.6
2,570.6
433.9
1.01
-85
1,743.0
8,954.2
21.1
3.1
4.4
11.2
0.2
7.6
427.7
2009E
60,449.7
4,190.1
1,633.4
1,633.4
861.7
2.01
99
2,834.1
7,520.7
10.6
2.7
4.0
10.2
0.3
0.0
427.7
2010E
64,515.8
5,350.0
2,792.4
2,792.4
1,926.0
4.50
124
1,981.0
6,182.1
4.8
2.0
2.9
5.5
0.2
5.5
427.7
2011E
67,328.5
5,449.3
2,895.6
2,895.6
2,102.3
4.92
9
2,183.1
4,762.8
4.4
2.0
2.6
4.8
0.2
7.6
427.7
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
32
????????????????????????
Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals
Farmacol
PGF
Sector: Pharmaceuticals
Reuters code: FCOL.WA
Free float: 50%
12M range: PLN 20.43-39.40
Sector: Pharmaceuticals
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net Income
EPS
EPS yoy change
FCFF
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Reuters code: MDCI.WA
Free float: 77%
12M range: PLN 18.80-88.00
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
4,161.7
104.9
93.2
70.5
3.04
1
-61.2
43.7
7.6
6.5
5.5
6.2
0.0
23,176
2009E
4,519.4
118.8
102.7
75.6
3.26
7
-24.1
73.3
7.1
5.9
5.1
5.9
0.0
23,176
2010E
4,839.7
128.4
108.5
80.1
3.46
6
34.1
44.8
6.7
5.4
4.5
5.4
0.0
23,176
2011E
5,097.6
132.1
111.3
84.2
3.63
5
68.3
3.9
6.4
5.1
4.1
4.9
4.4
23,176
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net Income
EPS
EPS yoy change
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
5,176.6
102.9
76.0
46.9
3.76
-36
511.6
5.0
3.2
7.3
9.8
0.0
12,460
2009E
5,435.4
112.1
83.8
50.0
4.01
7
483.6
4.7
3.0
6.4
8.6
0.0
12,460
2010E
5,761.5
121.8
91.9
59.6
4.78
19
439.3
4.0
2.6
5.6
7.4
0.0
12,460
2011E
6,049.6
124.6
93.4
62.7
5.03
5
421.3
3.8
2.5
5.3
7.0
12.6
12,460
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
33
Pulp & Paper
Real estate
Świecie
Echo Investment
Sector: Pulp&paper
Reuters code: CELA.WA
Free float: 34%
12M range: PLN 30.45-57.00
Sector: Real estate
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Reuters code: EPRS.WA
Free float: 61%
12M range: PLN 1.70-7.24
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,401.0
302.3
193.7
156.3
3.13
-37
299.5
12.4
7.3
7.4
11.6
1.6
0.0
50,000
2009E
1,478.6
435.7
234.4
166.4
3.33
7
599.3
11.7
5.3
5.8
10.9
1.7
0.0
50,000
2010E
1,944.8
533.3
344.3
258.7
5.17
55
280.5
7.5
4.3
4.2
6.5
1.1
0.0
50,000
2011E
1,950.4
472.5
294.2
228.0
4.56
-12
80.1
8.5
4.8
4.3
6.9
1.0
6.7
50,000
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
P/NAV
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
424.4
648.8
641.0
148.5
0.35
-53
1,794.7
5.7
5.4
4.1
4.1
6.2
0.5
0.0
420,000
2009E
383.5
389.8
380.6
246.5
0.59
66
2,106.6
3.4
3.3
7.6
7.8
7.7
0.4
0.0
420,000
2010E
557.5
936.0
925.4
672.8
1.60
173
3,100.0
1.3
1.2
4.2
4.3
7.1
0.3
0.0
420,000
2011E
684.9
950.5
938.6
658.1
1.57
-2
3,974.2
1.3
1.3
5.1
5.1
7.0
0.3
0.0
420,000
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
34
????????????????????????
Real estate
Residential construction
GTC
Dom Development
Sector: Real estate
Reuters code: GTCE.WA
Free float: 54%
12M range: PLN 10.85-41.50
Sector: Residential construction
Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Underweight (→)
Price: PLN 21.0
IFRS consolidated
Sales
Operating profit
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
P/NAV
No. of shares (eop)
Stock performance
Reuters code: DOMD.WA
Free float: 37%
12M range: PLN 14.80-85.00
Key data
EUR m
EUR m
EUR m
EUR
%
EUR m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
142.1
399.9
200.4
0.90
-15
758.8
3.0
3.4
9.5
0.5
0.0
221,500
2009E
193.3
226.3
133.5
0.60
-34
1,069.1
4.5
7.4
8.6
0.5
0.0
222,000
2010E
241.7
255.2
144.5
0.65
8
1,146.3
4.1
6.8
7.2
0.4
0.0
222,500
2011E
314.5
328.3
195.2
0.88
35
1,280.6
3.1
5.7
6.0
0.4
0.0
222,500
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
779.8
182.8
180.2
152.2
6.20
-24
253.6
3.4
3.3
4.2
4.3
1.0
5.8
24,560
2009E
602.5
92.5
89.7
74.1
3.02
-51
547.2
7.0
6.7
11.5
11.8
1.8
0.0
24,560
2010E
770.8
103.4
100.3
82.0
3.34
11
463.8
6.3
6.1
9.5
9.8
1.3
0.0
24,560
2011E
1,081.9
147.1
143.8
116.8
4.76
42
413.0
4.4
4.3
6.3
6.5
0.9
0.0
24,560
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
35
Analysts: Adrian Kyrcz, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 74
Maciej Wewiórski, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 62
J.W. Construction
Polnord
Sector: Residential construction
12M EFV: PLN 16.6 (→) Sector: Residential construction Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Overweight (→) Price: PLN 22.95
Reuters code: JWCA.WA
Free float: 20%
12M range: PLN 4.02-39.80
Key data
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
EPS yoy chng
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Sales
No. of shares (eop)
Reuters code: PNOR.WA
Free float: 49%
12M range: PLN 19.80-132.00
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
722.1
154.5
137.5
85.7
1.57
-42
345.4
3.4
2.9
4.1
4.7
8.9
0
54,387
2009E
765.5
162.2
144.6
99.7
1.83
16
93.3
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.7
5.1
0
54,387
2010E
796.1
135.3
117.9
87.1
1.60
-13
-79.7
3.4
2.8
1.6
1.8
2.7
10
54,387
2011E
936.9
135.3
116.4
88.6
1.63
2
-274.3
3.3
2.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
9
54,387
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net profit
Adj net profit
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
No. of shares (ths)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
414.6
121.8
103.8
119.6
101.5
89.5
74.9
575.2
5.4
5.3
9.5
9.7
0.0
18,535
2009E
301.7
85.3
85.3
82.8
82.8
67.3
67.3
597.3
6.1
5.8
11.8
12.1
0.0
18,535
2010E
351.6
102.4
102.4
99.7
99.7
81.1
81.1
1,182.5
5.0
4.9
15.5
15.9
0.0
18,535
2011E
1,230.0
865.6
304.7
862.7
301.8
699.8
245.4
2,967.6
1.7
1.6
11.1
11.2
0.0
18,535
Multiples based on adjusted profits. Adj EBITDA, adj EBIT and adj NI exclude the impact of property revaluation gains.
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
36
????????????????????????
Retail
Retail
Analysts:Jakub Viscardi, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 69
Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 78
Alma Market
Bomi
Sector: Retail
12M EFV: PLN 30.3 (→) Sector: Retail
Fundamental rating: Buy (→) Market relative: Neutral (→)
Price: PLN 10.5
Reuters code: KRAK.WA
Free float: 53%
12M range: PLN 19.23-101.00
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
EPS
Adj EPS
Adj EPS yoy change
Net debt
P/E
Adj P/E
Adj EV/EBITDA
Adj EV/EBIT
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
881.1
41.3
19.8
25.0
3.5
13.7
-6.2
2.53
-1.13
n.m.
172.5
7.9
n.m.
14.2
80.8
0.0
5,429
2009E
1,188.4
55.7
55.7
30.2
30.2
9.7
9.7
1.78
1.78
n.m.
205.1
11.2
11.2
5.6
10.4
0.0
5,429
Company’s 2008E profits are adjusted for non-cash revaluation of real estate.
Stock performance
2010E
1,438.2
73.8
73.8
43.2
43.2
19.0
19.0
3.51
3.51
97
201.8
5.7
5.7
4.2
7.2
0.0
5,429
2011E
1,690.8
89.2
89.2
51.2
51.2
26.4
26.4
4.87
4.87
39
193.2
4.1
4.1
3.4
5.9
0.0
5,429
Reuters code: BOMI.WA
Free float: 46%
12M range: PLN 9.60-27.70
Adjusted for non-cash one-off merger costs, goodwill write-offs.
Key data
Sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
EBIT
Adj EBIT
Net income
Adj NI
Adj EPS
Adj EPS yoy change
Net debt
Adj P/E
Adj P/CE
Adj EV/EBITDA
Adj EV/EBIT
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
PAS pro-forma
consolidated
1,624.5
-62.5
76.4
-87.5
51.5
-306.0
36.4
1.32
40
83.8
7.9
7.6
6.4
9.6
0.0
38,862
2008E
921.2
-99.1
39.9
-113.1
25.8
-323.2
19.2
0.68
-28
83.8
14.2
8.2
9.5
14.7
0.0
38,862
2009E
2010E
IFRS consolidated
1,717.6
89.6
89.6
61.6
61.6
44.8
44.8
1.15
69
49.9
8.4
5.2
5.1
7.4
0.0
38,862
1,898.4
100.6
100.6
70.9
70.9
52.6
52.6
1.35
18
9.5
7.2
4.6
4.2
5.9
0.0
38,862
2011E
2,070.2
109.6
109.6
77.0
77.0
60.3
60.3
1.55
15
-49.8
6.3
4.1
3.3
4.7
0.0
38,862
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
37
Retail
Retail
Analysts:Jakub Viscardi, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 69
Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 78
Emperia Holding
Inter Cars
Sector: Retail
12M EFV: PLN 50.2 (→) Sector: Retail
Reuters code: EDRO.WA
Free float: 86%
12M range: PLN 40.50-155.00
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy change
FCFF
Net Debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Number of shares
Reuters code: IRCR.WA
Free float: 47%
12M range: PLN 24.20-127.00
Key data
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
5,296.0
155.0
101.3
53.8
3.56
-32
-100.6
226.0
14.9
7.4
6.6
10.1
1.7
15,115
2009E
5,813.8
181.6
108.2
68.3
4.52
27
-19.8
270.1
11.7
5.6
5.9
9.9
1.0
15,115
2010E
6,353.6
207.2
118.2
77.0
5.09
13
10.9
288.3
10.4
4.8
5.2
9.2
1.3
15,115
2011E
6,930.3
231.4
129.5
87.6
5.79
14
66.2
251.4
9.1
4.2
4.5
8.1
1.4
15,115
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
EPS
EPS yoy change
Net debt
P/E
P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
1,783.9
118.3
90.0
24.3
1.77
-64.3
515.6
14.7
6.8
7.4
9.7
2.6
13,736
2009E
1,971.3
142.3
111.3
47.9
3.49
96.8
510.7
7.4
4.5
6.1
7.8
0.0
13,736
2010E
2,253.0
164.6
130.4
74.9
5.46
56.4
518.8
4.8
3.3
5.3
6.7
2.7
13,736
2011E
2,495.8
174.7
138.0
81.4
5.92
8.6
520.3
4.4
3.0
5.0
6.4
4.2
13,736
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
38
????????????????????????
Retail
Telecommunications
Analysts: Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 78
Marek Kaźmierczak, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 78
Analyst: Jakub Viscardi, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 69
Vistula Group
Netia
Sector: Retail
12M EFV: PLN 2.41 (→) Sector: Telecommunication
Reuters code: VIST.WA
Free float: 83%
12M range: PLN 2.16-10.50
Company’s 2008E NP is adjusted for (i) profit on disposal stake in V&W Production (PLN 3 million), (ii) write-off
of receivables and inventories (-PLN 8 million), (iii) balance of created/reversed provisions (-PLN 1 million (mainly
for employment restructuring)), (iv) liquidation of fixed assets (-PLN 0.9 million), (v) fit-out in GC (0.9 million), (vi) other
(PLN 0.4 million).
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
Adj net income
Adj EPS
Adj EPS yoy change
FCFF
Net debt
Adj P/E
Adj P/CE
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
%
ths.
2008E
508.8
41.5
19.3
-4.4
-1.2
-0.01
n.m.
-322.8
318.5
n.m.
11.5
13.5
29.0
0.0
103,304
2009E
562.0
58.5
33.0
7.3
7.3
0.07
n.m.
32.6
304.6
33.4
7.4
9.4
16.6
0.0
103,304
2010E
570.7
65.0
38.2
13.0
13.0
0.13
79
38.6
283.4
18.6
6.1
8.1
13.8
0.0
103,304
2011E
596.1
75.5
46.6
21.1
21.1
0.20
62
35.5
264.3
11.5
4.9
6.7
10.9
0.0
103,304
Reuters code: NTIA.WA
Free float: 39%
12M range: PLN 1.95-4.14
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
FCFF
EPS
EPS yoy
Net debt
EV
P/E
P/CE
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
Dividend yield
FCFF yield
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
x
%
%
m
2008E
1,112.0
158.2
-108.4
220.5
202.8
0.57
n.m.
-158.6
799.0
4.3
2.0
0.7
5.0
n.m.
3.9
0.0
25.4
389
2009E
1,572.8
232.4
-45.0
-42.2
-177.7
-0.11
n.m.
-8.6
949.0
n.m.
4.1
0.6
4.1
n.m.
neg.
0.0
neg.
389
2010E
1,717.4
315.3
21.3
16.3
29.2
0.04
n.m.
-44.6
913.0
58.9
3.1
0.5
2.9
42.9
31.3
0.0
3.2
389
2011E
1,841.2
380.0
71.5
59.2
86.9
0.15
264
-139.5
818.1
16.2
2.6
0.4
2.2
11.4
9.4
0.0
10.6
389
Stock performance
Stock performance
Source: ISI
Source: ISI
????????????????????????
39
Telecommunications
Analyst: Jakub Viscardi, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 69
TP SA
Sector: Telecommunication
12M EFV: PLN 22.5 (→)
Reuters code: TPSA.WA
Free float: 49%
12M range: PLN 17.85-24.38
Key data
IFRS consolidated
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
FCFF
EPS
EPS yoy
Net debt
EV
P/E
P/CE
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
Dividend yield
FCFF yield
Number of shares
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
x
%
%
m
2008E
18,111.6
7,671.1
3,349.0
2,219.2
3,194.8
1.66
0
4,903.6
30,134.0
11.4
3.9
1.7
3.9
9.0
9.4
10.9
10.6
1,336
2009E
17,586.0
7,470.4
3,255.0
2,179.5
3,844.4
1.63
-2
4,903.6
30,134.0
11.6
3.9
1.7
4.0
9.3
7.8
10.3
12.8
1,336
2010E
17,416.7
7,375.8
3,236.6
2,199.7
3,794.3
1.65
1
4,903.6
30,134.0
11.5
4.0
1.7
4.1
9.3
7.9
13.3
12.6
1,336
2011E
17,387.1
7,328.4
3,360.3
2,327.9
3,733.1
1.74
6
4,903.6
30,134.0
10.8
4.0
1.7
4.1
9.0
8.1
13.2
12.4
1,336
Stock performance
Source: ISI
40
????????????????????????
Appendix;
IDM’s coverage universe valuation table
Multiples priced as of the close of February 5, 2009.
IDM’s WSE coverage universe valuation table
Sector
Company
LT
ST market
fundamental relative
rating
bias
Current
price
(PLN)
12M
Upside
EFV (downside)
(PLN)
to EFV
P/E
EV/EBITDA,
(P/BV for banks,
P/NAV for real estate)
2008E 2009E 2010E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Aluminium products Kęty
Banks
BRE
BZWBK
Handlowy
INGBSK
Kredyt Bank
Millennium
Pekao
PKO BP
Chemicals
Police
Puławy
Synthos
Construction
Budimex
Energomontaż
Południe
HBP
PBG
Pol-Aqua
Polimex
Construction
Barlinek
materials
CNG
Cersanit
Decora
Lena
Mercor
Polcolorit
IT
ABS
Asseco Poland
Media &
Entertainment
Mining
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Pulp and Paper
Real-estate
Residential
construction
Retail
Telco
ComArch
IVMX
Teta
Agora
Cyfrowy Polsat
Multimedia
TVN
KGHM
Lotos
PKN Orlen
Farmacol
PGF
Świecie
Echo
GTC
Dom Development
JW. Construction
Polnord
Alma
Bomi
Emperia
Inter Cars
Vistula Group
Netia
TPSA
Sell
Hold
Hold
Sell
Hold
Sell
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Neutral
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
58.40
128.00
84.00
31.50
300.00
5.76
1.90
99.50
25.50
4.50
45.70
0.43
56.00
2.53
59.00
183.60
118.40
37.50
348.90
6.80
2.50
145.00
36.00
5.04
41.70
0.66
81.60
4.00
1%
43%
41%
19%
16%
18%
32%
46%
41%
12%
-9%
53%
46%
58%
8.2
4.1
5.7
5.5
7.6
4.8
3.7
7.3
7.1
7.9
6.6
3.9
14.6
8.1
8.0
7.7
7.9
7.0
8.1
9.5
7.9
9.7
9.6
n.m.
8.2
4.4
14.3
8.5
7.3
6.9
7.2
6.9
7.6
8.6
6.8
8.9
8.8
3.9
7.6
6.5
11.4
7.8
4.8
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.6
1.7
0.6
0.9
2.3
9.1
6.2
4.9
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
1.5
1.5
n.m.
1.6
2.3
7.7
6.0
4.3
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.5
1.3
1.3
2.0
1.9
2.5
5.8
5.5
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Suspended
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Neutral
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight
Suspended
Overweight
Overweight
5.59
208.50
14.70
2.20
1.59
2.50
9.25
7.50
0.92
25.50
0.16
6.39
43.40
8.53
279.00
27.50
5.10
2.70
3.30
15.30
10.40
1.20
40.90
n.a.
9.30
61.50
53%
34%
87%
132%
70%
32%
65%
39%
30%
60%
n.a.
46%
42%
19.8
18.1
7.9
7.1
n.m.
6.4
17.9
28.2
6.7
8.2
n.a.
10.1
10.8
9.7
13.7
7.0
6.7
6.5
7.7
8.3
6.8
4.9
8.0
n.a.
9.2
9.6
7.6
9.1
5.7
5.2
4.8
6.8
6.7
3.8
4.5
9.4
n.a.
8.2
10.4
15.3
12.6
3.8
5.1
5.9
4.3
6.0
4.3
2.9
7.2
n.a.
5.3
6.0
8.1
9.1
3.1
4.9
6.5
4.2
4.9
4.2
3.8
6.0
n.a.
4.2
5.4
6.1
6.6
2.4
4.0
5.5
3.7
4.2
3.6
3.7
6.5
n.a.
3.5
5.3
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Sell
Hold
Sell
Buy
Hold
Neutral
Neutral
Overweight
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Overweight
Overweight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Neutral
Neutral
Underweight
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
48.35
8.30
6.98
12.80
15.30
7.00
10.85
35.00
9.47
22.70
23.20
19.00
39.08
2.06
12.68
21.00
5.40
22.95
20.50
10.50
55.30
26.10
2.35
2.51
18.75
59.80
15.20
12.20
16.70
16.60
8.50
15.20
38.60
28.00
43.90
34.40
33.60
50.00
8.60
18.20
28.50
16.60
94.70
30.30
15.50
50.20
36.80
2.41
3.60
22.50
24%
83%
75%
30%
8%
21%
40%
10%
196%
93%
48%
77%
28%
317%
44%
36%
207%
313%
48%
48%
-9%
41%
3%
43%
20%
10.6
6.9
5.9
14.5
14.3
17.9
8.7
2.3
n.m.
21.1
7.6
5.0
12.4
5.7
3.0
3.4
3.4
5.4
n.m.
7.9
14.9
14.7
n.m.
4.3
11.4
9.7
6.2
6.5
9.1
13.1
16.7
8.7
21.6
9.4
10.6
7.1
4.7
11.7
3.4
4.5
7.0
3.0
6.1
11.2
8.4
11.7
7.4
33.4
n.m.
11.6
8.8
5.4
6.6
12.3
10.6
14.0
7.4
32.3
2.6
4.8
6.7
4.0
7.5
1.3
4.1
6.3
3.4
5.0
5.7
7.2
10.4
4.8
18.6
58.9
11.5
3.6
4.4
4.3
2.9
10.5
6.1
6.3
1.3
10.5
4.4
5.5
7.3
7.4
0.5
0.5
4.2
4.1
9.5
14.2
6.4
6.6
7.4
13.5
5.0
3.9
3.4
3.6
4.3
2.7
8.9
5.6
6.6
5.5
9.2
4.0
5.1
6.4
5.8
0.4
0.5
11.5
2.4
11.8
5.6
5.1
5.9
6.1
9.4
4.1
4.0
2.4
2.8
4.1
2.7
6.9
4.8
5.9
6.5
4.6
2.9
4.5
5.6
4.2
0.3
0.4
9.5
1.6
15.5
4.2
4.2
5.2
5.3
8.1
2.9
4.1
Source: DM IDMSA
????????????????????????
43
BASIC DEFINITIONS
A/R turnover (in days) = 365/(sales/average A/R))
Inventory turnover (in days) = 365/(COGS/average inventory))
A/P turnover (in days) = 365/(COGS/average A/P))
Current ratio = ((current assets – ST deferred assets)/current liabilities)
Quick ratio = ((current assets – ST deferred assets – inventory)/current liabilities)
Interest coverage = (pre-tax profit before extraordinary items + interest payable/interest payable)
Gross margin = gross profit on sales/sales
EBITDA margin = EBITDA/sales
EBIT margin = EBIT/sales
Pre-tax margin = pre-tax profit/sales
Net margin = net profit/sales
ROE = net profit/average equity
ROA = (net income + interest payable)/average assets
EV = market capitalization + interest bearing debt – cash and equivalents
EPS = net profit/ no. of shares outstanding
CE = net profit + depreciation
Dividend yield (gross) = pre-tax DPS/stock market price
Cash sales = accrual sales corrected for the change in A/R
Cash operating expenses = accrual operating expenses corrected for the changes in inventories and A/P,
depreciation, cash taxes and changes in the deferred taxes
DM IDM S.A. generally values the covered non bank companies via two methods: comparative method and
DCF method (discounted cash flows). The advantage of the former is the fact that it incorporates the current
market assessment of the value of the company’s peers. The weakness of the comparative method is the risk
that the valuation benchmark may be mispriced. The advantage of the DCF method is its independence from
the current market valuation of the comparable companies. The weakness of this method is its high sensitivity to
undertaken assumptions, especially those related to the residual value calculation. Please note that we also resort
to other valuation techniques (e.g. NAV-, DDM- or SOTP-based), should it prove appropriate in a given case.
Banks
Net Interest Margin (NIM) = net interest income/average assets
NIM Adjusted = (net interest income adjusted for SWAPs)/average assets
Non interest income = fees&commissions + result on financial operations (trading gains) + FX gains
Interest Spread = (interest income/average interest earning assets)/ (interest cost/average interest bearing liabilities)
Cost/Income = (general costs + depreciation + other operating costs)/ (profit on banking activity + other
operating income)
ROE = net profit/average equity
ROA = net income/average assets
Non performing loans (NPL) = loans in ‘substandard’, ‘doubtful’ and ‘lost’ categories
NPL coverrage ratio = loan loss provisions/NPL
Net provision charge = provisions created – provisions released
DM IDM S.A. generally values the covered banks via two methods: comparative method and fundamental target
fair P/E and target fair P/BV multiples method. The advantage of the former is the fact that it incorporates
the current market assessment of the value of the company’s peers. The weakness of the comparative
method is the risk that the valuation benchmark may be mispriced. The advantage of the fundamental target
fair P/E and target fair P/BV multiples method is its independence of the current market valuation of the comparable
companies. The weakness of this method is its high sensitivity to undertaken assumptions, especially those
related to the residual value calculation.
Assumptions used in valuation can change, influencing thereby the level of the valuation. Among the most
important assumptions are: GDP growth, forecasted level of inflation, changes in interest rates and currency
prices, employment level and change in wages, demand on the analysed company products, raw material prices,
competition, standing of the main customers and suppliers, legislation changes, etc.
Changes in the environment of the analysed company are monitored by analysts involved in the preparation
of the recommendation, estimated, incorporated in valuation and published in the recommendation whenever
needed.
KEY TO INVESTMENT RANKINGS
This is a guide to expected price performance in absolute terms over the next 12 months:
Buy – fundamentally undervalued (upside to 12M EFV in excess of the cost of equity) + catalysts which should close the valuation gap identified;
Hold – either (i) fairly priced, or (ii) fundamentally undervalued/overvalued but lacks catalysts which could close the valuation gap;
Sell – fundamentally overvalued (12M EFV < current share price + 1-year cost of equity) + catalysts which should close the valuation gap identified.
This is a guide to expected relative price performance:
Overweight – expected to perform better than the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
Neutral – expected to perform in line with the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
Underweight – expected to perform worse than the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
The recommendation tracker presents the performance of DM IDMSA’s recommendations. A recommendation expires on the day it is altered or on the day 12 months after its issuance, whichever comes first.
Relative performance compares the rate of return on a given recommended stock in the period of the recommendation’s validity (i.e. from the date of issuance to the date of alteration or – in case of maintained
recommendations – from the date of issuance to the current date) in a relation to the rate of return on the benchmark in this time period. The WIG index constitutes the benchmark. For recommendations that expire
by an alteration or are maintained, the ending values used to calculate their absolute and relative performance are: the stock closing price on the day the recommendation expires/ is maintained and the closing value
of the benchmark on that date. For recommendations that expire via a passage of time, the ending values used to calculate their absolute and relative performance are: the average of the stock closing prices for the day the
recommendation elapses and four directly preceding sessions and the average of the benchmark’s closing values for the day the recommendation expires and four directly preceding sessions.
Distribution of IDM’s current recommendations
Numbers
Percentage
Buy
21
40%
Hold
25
48%
Sell
5
10%
Suspended
1
2%
Under revision
0
0%
Suspended
1
2%
Under revision
0
0%
Distribution of IDM’s current market relative recommended weightings
Numbers
Percentage
Overweight
19
37%
Neutral
16
31%
Underweight
16
31%
Distribution of IDM’s current recommendations for companies that were within the last 12M IDM
customers in investment banking
Numbers
Percentage
Buy
2
33%
Hold
3
50%
Sell
0
0%
Suspended
1
17%
Under revision
0
0%
Distribution of IDM’s current market relative recommended weightings for the companies that were
within the last 12M IDM customers in investment banking
Numbers
Percentage
Overweight
1
17%
Neutral
4
67%
Underweight
0
0%
Suspended
1
17%
Under revision
0
0%
LT fundamental recommendation tracker
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
07.02.2008
11.01.2009
09.03.2008
26.03.2008
30.03.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
-
-43%
-8%
-1%
7%
119.00
116.00
118.20
117.50
116.80
108.50
99.90
89.00
79.00
80.50
73.95
81.00
79.50
50.95
49.50
71.50
63.35
110.00
110.00
112.00
112.00
113.20
113.20
112.50
91.00
90.10
86.00
86.00
86.00
80.00
80.00
59.00
59.00
59.00
→
↑
→
↑
→
↓
↓
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
BRE
Buy
Hold
→
→
-
12.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
61.00
58.40
59.00
59.00
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
05.03.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
06.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.07.2008
28.07.2008
04.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
02.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-59%
-20%
-20%
-15%
388.00
364.90
368.90
350.00
364.50
371.00
410.00
355.00
362.00
391.00
391.00
355.00
329.80
184.00
167.90
184.00
209.00
202.00
160.50
492.40
492.40
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
504.00
335.00
335.00
335.00
335.00
335.00
225.80
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
BZWBK
Hold
Buy
Hold
→
→
→
-
20.01.2009
04.02.2009
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
163.20
116.30
128.00
225.80
183.60
183.60
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
30.07.2008
19.10.2008
25.02.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
16.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
-10%
-37%
-21%
4%
-6%
-6%
191.00
179.30
181.40
163.70
163.90
181.00
164.00
136.00
131.10
168.00
175.60
163.00
106.60
219.00
211.50
213.00
213.00
213.00
210.00
210.00
210.00
210.00
210.00
210.00
210.00
161.00
↓
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
11.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
30.07.2008
19.10.2008
Not later than
19.10.2009
-
-
-
113.80
120.00
106.00
111.80
93.00
84.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
118.40
118.40
→
→
→
→
↓
→
Recommendation
Kęty
Sell
Sell
LT fundamental recommendation tracker (continued)
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
08.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
29.04.2008
11.05.2008
03.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
05.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-49%
-25%
-2%
-20%
91.70
88.45
88.90
93.20
85.00
87.00
71.45
74.75
63.20
67.00
60.50
44.30
46.50
45.35
50.50
41.99
98.70
98.70
101.00
101.00
101.00
101.00
96.25
90.00
90.00
90.00
66.00
66.00
66.00
66.00
66.00
37.50
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
-
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
31.50
37.50
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
22.05.2008
20.02.2008
30.03.2008
23.04.2008
29.04.2008
-
-14%
-41%
-10%
16%
605.00
580.00
525.00
494.50
495.50
509.00
735.90
675.00
669.00
677.00
677.00
581.00
↓
↓
↑
→
↓
Kredyt Bank
Sell
Sell
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
01.06.2008
09.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
12.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
22.05.2008
Not later than
22.05.2009
-
-
-
517.00
415.00
490.00
490.50
531.00
424.00
385.00
389.50
419.00
424.90
360.10
300.00
581.00
581.00
593.00
593.00
593.00
603.00
603.00
603.00
603.00
603.00
348.90
348.90
→
→
↑
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
14.02.2008
30.03.2008
23.04.2008
15.05.2008
09.07.2008
07.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
15.10.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-53%
-40%
-9%
-36%
21.50
22.30
21.60
21.50
19.70
16.80
14.99
14.00
13.80
11.00
10.10
10.33
10.68
10.93
9.60
18.40
18.40
18.60
18.60
18.60
18.08
15.50
15.50
15.50
11.30
11.30
11.00
11.00
11.00
6.80
→
↑
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
-
→
-
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
5.76
6.80
→
Recommendation
Handlowy
Hold
Sell
ING BSK
Buy
Hold
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
21.04.2008
09.07.2008
22.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
14.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-72%
-16%
-46%
-10%
8.05
8.10
8.32
7.96
6.39
6.50
6.94
6.61
4.73
3.78
3.20
2.68
2.26
10.50
10.70
10.70
10.70
10.30
9.10
9.10
9.10
6.30
6.30
6.30
6.30
2.50
↑
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
-
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
1.90
2.50
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
30.03.2008
29.04.2008
13.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
20.07.2008
28.07.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-48%
-5%
1%
1%
201.50
196.90
190.50
196.20
189.20
163.60
166.00
184.50
186.50
181.30
175.00
127.40
123.10
111.50
111.00
123.00
105.20
219.10
224.00
224.00
214.40
214.40
214.40
214.40
214.40
214.40
214.40
214.40
167.00
167.00
156.00
156.00
156.00
145.00
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
-
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
99.50
145.00
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
12.02.2008
14.02.2008
26.03.2008
30.03.2008
16.04.2008
29.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
15.07.2008
28.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
09.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-32%
-14%
31%
-8%
45.12
43.01
45.82
44.00
44.95
45.00
45.40
48.15
50.35
45.00
43.50
49.30
49.02
49.00
44.90
28.60
29.50
30.80
32.00
34.33
29.60
50.90
50.90
50.90
52.90
52.90
52.90
52.90
54.50
54.50
54.50
54.50
54.50
54.50
54.50
54.50
45.20
45.20
40.00
40.00
40.00
36.00
→
→
↑
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
Police
Hold
→
-
08.02.2009
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
-
-
25.50
36.00
→
-
04.02.2009
-
1%
-2%
4.47
5.04
-
Puławy
Buy
Sell
Hold
→
-
08.02.2009
Not later than
04.02.2010
-
-
-
4.50
5.04
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↑
07.10.2008
16.11.2008
04.02.2009
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
06.01.2009
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
20.01.2009
-
-17%
-14%
13%
4%
0%
10%
62.75
52.00
55.75
52.00
55.90
52.25
50.75
48.00
47.88
40.30
90.00
90.00
90.00
46.00
46.00
41.70
41.70
41.70
41.70
41.70
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
→
-
08.02.2009
16.11.2008
04.02.2009
Not later than
04.02.2010
-
-
-
45.70
41.70
→
Recommendation
Millennium
Hold
Hold
Pekao
Hold
Buy
PKO BP
Buy
Buy
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
↑
24.04.2008
17.07.2008
14.05.2008
-
-33%
-33%
-24%
15%
0.95
1.06
0.64
0.85
0.90
0.81
↑
↓
Budimex
Sell
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
17.07.2008
Not later than
17.07.2009
-
-
-
0.72
0.81
0.91
0.96
0.69
0.72
0.58
0.60
0.47
0.43
0.81
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.84
0.84
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.66
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
06.02.2008
14.07.2008
26.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
28.04.2008
29.04.2008
-
-22%
-14%
-4%
40%
83.70
90.50
83.00
81.40
82.00
80.65
65.10
79.30
77.40
77.40
77.30
78.10
78.10
79.30
↓
→
↓
↑
→
↑
Energomontaż Południe
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
07.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
15.01.2009
08.02.2009
14.07.2008
Not later than
14.04.2009
-
-
-
74.50
80.70
86.75
74.35
67.00
61.10
63.50
61.00
55.05
56.00
56.00
79.30
80.50
80.50
80.50
81.60
81.60
81.60
81.60
81.60
81.60
81.60
→
↑
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
01.12.2008
-
19%
2.36
3.40
-
Hydrobudowa Polska
Hold
Buy
-
09.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
01.12.2009
-
7%
→
→
→
-
-
2.65
2.65
2.53
4.00
4.00
4.00
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
01.07.2008
30.11.2008
06.07.2008
05.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
09.11.2008
-
-16%
-13%
25%
-1%
7.70
7.40
7.50
7.30
7.00
5.99
6.00
6.20
6.43
8.50
8.40
8.40
8.40
8.40
8.48
8.48
8.53
8.53
↓
→
→
→
↑
→
↑
→
PBG
Hold
Buy
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-
-
6.00
5.80
5.59
8.53
8.53
8.53
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
06.02.2008
30.11.2008
17.02.2008
21.02.2008
30.03.2008
14.04.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
28.07.2008
04.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
-
-26%
0%
30%
14%
281.60
317.90
326.70
325.00
311.00
318.00
315.00
318.00
268.00
238.00
245.00
248.00
238.00
232.00
192.10
191.50
198.30
208.00
319.00
319.00
352.00
358.00
357.00
361.00
361.00
361.00
356.00
348.00
348.00
348.00
348.00
348.00
305.00
305.00
305.00
305.00
→
↑
↑
↓
↑
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
-
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-
-
211.50
192.90
208.50
305.00
279.00
279.00
→
↓
→
Recommendation
Synthos
Sell
Hold
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
↑
06.02.2008
04.03.2008
16.03.2008
12.10.2008
16.11.2008
05.01.2009
18.02.2008
30.03.2008
20.04.2008
22.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
17.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
-
-7%
-3%
-44%
-6%
-54%
-16%
-3%
-4%
-17%
8%
-56%
0%
79.50
84.90
74.05
72.00
77.75
78.65
71.00
70.00
71.50
50.00
51.60
49.99
50.50
40.20
39.50
37.97
16.39
17.49
92.00
92.00
Under revision
92.00
91.70
91.70
91.70
91.70
91.70
76.30
76.30
76.30
76.30
54.20
54.20
34.70
34.70
27.50
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
↓
Polimex Mostostal
Hold
Buy
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
20.01.2009
08.02.2009
04.03.2008
16.03.2008
12.10.2008
16.11.2008
05.01.2009
Not later than
05.01.2010
-
-
-
17.47
15.70
14.70
27.50
27.50
27.50
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
06.02.2008
08.05.2008
10.02.2008
30.03.2008
16.04.2008
29.04.2008
-
-4%
-70%
-4%
-39%
7.57
8.15
8.10
7.11
6.90
7.25
8.38
8.08
8.02
7.99
8.10
8.50
↓
↓
↓
↑
↑
Barlinek
Buy
Under revision
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
14.07.2008
28.07.2008
05.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
13.01.2009
08.02.2009
08.05.2008
Not later than
08.05.2009
-
-
-
6.59
5.60
5.30
5.65
6.02
5.20
4.81
2.62
2.85
3.32
3.14
3.05
2.86
2.20
8.50
8.40
8.40
8.40
8.40
8.40
8.40
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.10
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.01.2008
14.09.2008
27.09.2008
05.02.2008
25.02.2008
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
09.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
-
-42%
-37%
-64%
-30%
-36%
-42%
11.99
13.30
13.95
13.50
13.60
11.80
11.90
10.48
9.00
7.74
7.08
7.30
7.50
7.00
4.42
15.10
16.10
16.10
16.10
16.00
15.20
15.20
15.20
15.00
10.30
10.30
10.00
10.00
Under revision
5.50
↑
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
↓
→
↓
→
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.09.2008
27.10.2008
29.10.2008
24.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
28.01.2009
08.02.2009
14.09.2008
27.09.2008
Not later than
27.09.2009
-
-
-
4.42
3.68
3.89
2.37
2.27
1.95
1.52
1.59
5.50
4.50
4.50
3.90
3.90
3.90
2.70
2.70
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
Recommendation
Pol-Aqua
Buy
Under revision
Buy
Hold
Sell
Hold
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
28.01.2008
11.01.2009
24.02.2008
30.03.2008
21.04.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
16.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
19.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-38%
-6%
5%
8%
4.45
4.75
4.52
4.15
4.05
4.40
4.21
3.67
3.50
3.49
3.89
3.79
3.80
3.26
3.27
3.05
2.89
2.67
5.10
5.10
5.20
5.24
5.24
5.24
5.24
5.08
5.07
5.07
5.17
5.17
5.17
4.40
4.40
3.90
3.90
3.90
→
↑
↑
→
→
→
↓
↓
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
29.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
2.60
2.50
3.30
3.30
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
28.01.2008
11.01.2009
25.02.2008
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
23.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
26.10.2008
29.10.2008
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-51%
-34%
-17%
-24%
28.50
29.11
26.49
26.50
25.60
15.03
15.20
16.00
16.57
12.70
14.11
11.99
13.60
14.06
35.40
35.40
35.40
35.50
35.40
26.80
25.20
25.20
25.20
25.20
22.20
22.20
22.20
22.20
→
→
↑
↓
↓
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
Decora
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
→
→
-
01.02.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
9.10
9.25
15.30
15.30
↓
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
25.02.2008
29.04.2008
20.10.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
21.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
11%
-41%
-23%
-54%
5%
-37%
23%
-45%
33.40
37.00
26.60
26.10
21.69
20.00
19.00
15.50
15.00
16.20
17.51
16.32
40.00
35.80
35.50
35.30
29.30
29.00
25.10
24.80
25.00
25.00
25.00
20.80
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↑
→
→
↓
Lena Lighting
Buy
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
18.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
25.02.2008
29.04.2008
20.10.2008
Not later than
20.10.2009
-
-
-
14.75
12.30
10.25
8.50
7.70
7.50
20.80
18.20
18.20
18.20
10.40
10.40
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
16.10.2008
20.02.2008
30.03.2008
15.04.2008
22.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
-32%
-67%
5%
-58%
4.15
4.30
3.86
3.48
2.50
2.79
3.24
3.35
3.29
2.77
6.00
5.60
5.68
5.68
5.60
5.60
5.30
5.30
5.30
4.00
↓
↑
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
20.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
08.02.2009
16.10.2008
Not later than
16.10.2009
-
-
-
2.68
2.25
1.90
1.10
1.15
0.92
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
1.20
1.20
→
→
→
→
↓
→
Recommendation
Ceramika Nowa Gala
Hold
Hold
Cersanit
Buy
Buy
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
↑
28.01.2008
11.03.2008
25.02.2008
-
19%
-42%
17%
15%
37.00
44.99
44.00
40.80
47.90
48.40
↑
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
30.03.2008
24.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
21.07.2008
28.07.2008
11.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
22.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.03.2008
Not later than
11.03.2009
-
-
-
45.40
45.40
46.94
48.00
45.50
34.00
36.51
39.99
39.90
38.40
28.00
25.89
29.95
27.80
24.50
23.00
25.50
49.00
55.80
55.80
57.00
57.00
55.70
55.70
55.70
55.70
55.70
53.20
53.20
53.20
53.20
53.20
40.90
40.90
↑
↑
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
28.01.2008
29.04.2008
05.06.2008
-
22.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
11.04.2008
01.06.2008
14.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
29.04.2008
05.06.2008
-
-26%
-2%
-72%
-
-26%
-1%
-47%
-
0.80
0.80
0.76
0.67
0.63
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.37
0.35
0.32
0.23
0.21
0.17
0.16
0.72
0.72
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
-
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
7.02.2008
11.05.2008
09.11.2008
07.01.2009
21.02.2008
13.03.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
02.07.2008
28.07.2008
07.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
15.12.2008
-
0%
-30%
-41%
23%
1%
18%
-41%
47%
12.50
13.50
13.30
12.67
12.66
12.50
12.97
11.45
11.30
10.40
11.30
12.45
10.80
10.00
8.55
8.80
8.59
6.20
5.20
13.20
14.20
14.10
14.00
14.00
14.60
14.60
14.50
14.30
14.30
14.30
14.30
14.30
12.80
12.80
10.30
10.30
9.30
9.30
↑
↓
↓
→
↑
→
↓
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
↓
→
Asseco Poland
Buy
Buy
→
→
-
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.05.2008
09.11.2008
07.01.2009
Not later than
07.01.2010
-
-
-
5.34
6.39
9.30
9.30
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
11.01.2009
30.03.2008
21.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
11.07.2008
28.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
24.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-28%
-11%
28%
3%
68.00
70.00
69.35
64.65
63.00
58.15
51.95
57.30
61.10
62.00
60.50
61.70
45.30
46.40
47.98
48.70
85.50
85.50
84.10
84.10
82.00
79.10
72.90
72.90
75.60
75.60
75.60
69.90
69.90
61.50
61.50
61.50
→
↓
→
↓
↓
↓
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
-
→
→
-
14.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
45.05
43.40
61.50
61.50
→
→
Recommendation
Mercor
Hold
Buy
Polcolorit
Sell
Hold
Suspended
Asseco Business Solutions
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
-
17.02.2008
25.05.2008
13.10.2008
16.11.2008
20.11.2008
06.03.2008
30.03.2008
16.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
14.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
-
-27%
-30%
0%
-27%
3%
-23%
4%
16%
-20%
7%
124.60
116.60
118.80
106.60
90.90
93.80
79.05
68.00
70.00
80.00
74.00
74.50
64.00
60.00
64.00
47.00
133.90
126.80
127.20
127.70
122.20
122.20
120.00
117.00
117.00
107.90
107.90
107.90
86.00
86.00
70.60
↓
↑
↑
↓
→
↓
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
-
→
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
03.02.2009
08.02.2009
25.05.2008
13.10.2008
16.11.2008
20.11.2008
Not later than
20.11.2009
-
-
-
52.50
60.50
49.00
48.35
70.60
70.60
59.80
59.80
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
04.02.2008
11.01.2009
11.03.2008
30.03.2008
07.04.2008
15.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
06.10.2008
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-75%
5%
-56%
22%
34.00
33.00
32.50
33.48
23.00
24.30
22.29
19.60
14.50
13.70
14.70
10.60
10.00
7.90
37.80
38.00
38.00
37.90
26.00
26.00
23.60
23.60
23.60
16.40
16.40
15.20
15.20
15.20
↑
→
↓
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
-
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
8.30
15.20
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
4.02.2008
11.01.2009
14.02.2008
30.03.2008
11.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
28.07.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
26.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
-
-51%
-19%
-12%
-6%
17.50
18.10
18.44
18.57
18.97
17.48
15.40
13.40
13.25
13.88
13.20
12.35
7.94
8.19
8.25
8.30
8.60
26.30
26.30
25.90
25.70
25.70
25.70
25.00
20.00
20.00
20.40
20.40
20.40
14.20
14.20
14.20
14.20
14.20
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
↓
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
Agora
Hold
Sell
Hold
→
→
-
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
6.50
6.98
12.20
12.20
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↑
03.02.2008
16.10.2008
01.02.2009
11.02.2008
02.03.2008
06.03.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
14.05.2008
17.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-52%
-41%
-4%
-21%
-28%
-1%
48.01
48.10
43.80
42.75
43.00
41.35
40.40
27.73
30.00
29.22
28.73
22.75
19.40
18.30
16.55
17.30
13.39
45.90
45.90
41.50
41.50
41.80
42.00
42.00
39.30
34.20
34.20
34.20
19.80
19.80
19.60
19.60
19.60
16.70
→
↓
→
↑
↑
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
-
→
-
08.02.2009
16.10.2008
01.02.2009
Not later than
01.02.2010
-
-
-
12.80
16.70
→
Recommendation
Comarch
Hold
Buy
Hold
Under revision
Hold
IVMX
Hold
Hold
Teta
Buy
Buy
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
-
19.06.2008
-
11%
101%
13.90
18.30
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
19.06.2009
-
-
-
13.20
13.39
14.15
13.70
14.50
14.89
12.70
12.60
13.00
14.00
14.20
15.30
18.30
18.00
17.90
18.00
18.00
18.00
15.60
15.60
15.60
15.60
16.60
16.60
→
↓
↓
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
11.01.2009
17.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
09.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
12.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-19%
-8%
44%
6%
9.70
9.68
9.70
8.70
8.65
8.37
8.60
8.20
7.25
6.36
6.60
7.60
7.99
7.35
6.50
5.97
6.16
6.63
7.65
12.70
12.70
12.90
12.90
12.90
12.90
12.20
12.20
12.10
11.80
11.80
11.90
11.90
11.90
10.30
10.30
8.90
8.90
8.90
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
↓
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
27.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
7.45
7.00
8.50
8.50
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
20.05.2008
12.02.2008
19.02.2008
30.03.2008
15.04.2008
29.04.2008
13.05.2008
-
20.05.2008
Not later than
20.05.2009
-
-9%
-46%
-5%
7%
22.40
24.80
24.35
23.00
22.44
22.80
22.30
20.00
27.70
27.70
27.80
27.90
27.70
27.70
27.70
26.70
→
↑
↑
↓
→
→
↓
-
-
18.75
16.35
19.30
17.90
18.30
13.80
13.04
13.26
13.28
13.00
12.29
10.85
26.20
23.50
24.10
24.10
24.10
17.80
17.80
17.90
17.90
17.90
15.20
15.20
↓
↓
↑
→
→
↓
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
17.08.2008
Not later than
17.08.2009
-
-17%
-55%
0%
-24%
104.90
104.00
106.40
105.20
103.10
101.50
87.15
78.80
78.40
130.00
130.00
130.80
130.80
130.80
129.00
120.00
120.00
95.00
→
↑
→
→
↓
↓
→
↓
-
-
77.35
59.00
41.11
29.35
26.00
28.90
32.70
29.10
35.00
95.00
95.00
52.00
52.00
38.60
38.60
38.60
38.60
38.60
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
Recommendation
Cyfrowy Polsat
Buy
Multimedia
Buy
Buy
TVN
Buy
Hold
KGHM
Buy
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
01.06.2008
13.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
20.10.2008
29.10.2008
09.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
17.02.2008
17.08.2008
30.03.2008
07.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.07.2008
28.07.2008
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
06.10.2008
29.10.2008
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
27.01.2009
08.02.2009
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
-
08.06.2008
-
-71%
-45%
32.74
34.50
-
PKN Orlen
Buy
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
17.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
20.10.2008
29.10.2008
19.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
20.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
08.06.2009
-
-
-
28.23
27.80
27.27
26.70
21.01
19.74
13.82
12.35
12.15
11.24
9.47
34.50
36.50
36.50
36.50
34.70
34.70
31.70
31.70
31.70
28.00
28.00
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
-
12.01.2009
-
-14%
-1%
26.26
43.90
-
Farmacol
Buy
Buy
→
-
08.02.2009
Not later than
12.01.2010
-
-
-
22.70
43.90
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
20.02.2008
11.01.2009
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
14.04.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
20.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-25%
-9%
36%
5%
34.00
34.00
37.29
39.18
37.20
36.30
37.24
34.44
32.89
31.50
30.03
31.00
30.80
24.76
21.45
24.70
25.59
25.60
41.40
42.50
42.60
42.60
42.60
42.60
42.60
42.00
41.50
41.50
40.50
40.50
40.50
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
↑
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
PGF
Buy
Hold
→
→
-
03.02.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
-
-
23.20
23.20
34.40
34.40
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
21.02.2008
17.08.2008
03.03.2008
30.03.2008
24.04.2008
29.04.2008
19.05.2008
01.06.2008
13.07.2008
-
-27%
-68%
-12%
-45%
81.90
76.00
74.95
79.50
80.20
77.80
67.00
54.55
59.55
95.30
88.80
89.10
90.20
90.20
87.80
87.80
77.80
72.30
↓
↑
↑
→
↓
→
↓
↓
Świecie
Sell
Buy
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
21.10.2008
29.10.2008
23.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
04.02.2009
08.02.2009
17.08.2008
Not later than
17.08.2009
-
-
-
54.70
40.80
32.00
23.50
27.80
27.99
26.20
19.19
19.00
72.30
72.30
51.70
51.70
40.70
40.70
40.70
33.60
33.60
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↑
21.01.2008
27.04.2008
29.01.2008
14.02.2008
30.03.2008
02.04.2008
-
-17%
-11%
-20%
72%
53.00
57.20
56.10
43.00
43.95
43.90
48.90
48.90
53.00
53.00
44.30
52.00
→
↑
→
↓
↑
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
01.07.2008
28.07.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
29.10.2008
02.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
15.01.2009
08.02.2009
27.04.2008
Not later than
27.04.2009
-
-
-
46.05
51.40
45.00
44.90
35.90
35.70
36.88
41.60
41.00
31.50
33.00
36.60
40.50
38.00
39.08
52.00
52.00
51.50
49.60
49.60
49.00
49.00
49.00
53.20
53.20
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
→
→
↓
↓
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
Recommendation
Lotos
Hold
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
09.12.2007
30.11.2008
30.03.2008
09.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
07.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
-
-71%
-6%
-38%
6%
7.64
6.38
3.70
4.30
4.50
4.30
3.13
2.30
2.05
2.20
11.15
11.15
9.20
9.20
9.20
9.20
9.20
9.20
9.20
9.20
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
29.01.2009
08.02.2009
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-
-
2.11
1.95
2.06
9.20
8.60
8.60
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
09.12.2007
30.11.2008
21.02.2008
26.02.2008
30.03.2008
22.04.2008
13.05.2008
21.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
-
-66%
-21%
-27%
-10%
47.00
36.50
35.24
36.36
35.48
41.40
26.35
29.00
25.00
23.00
19.00
16.00
12.30
15.98
68.30
58.60
58.60
57.80
56.00
56.00
56.00
37.30
37.30
37.30
37.30
37.30
22.80
22.80
↓
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-
-
15.50
12.42
12.68
22.80
18.20
18.20
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
9.12.2007
30.11.2008
20.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
29.04.2008
12.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
12.11.2008
-
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-84%
17%
-66%
32%
113.20
80.50
81.00
75.90
75.00
57.90
67.20
57.90
40.99
35.00
38.40
42.00
37.40
29.70
23.17
16.20
15.27
18.00
119.90
119.90
113.10
112.80
112.80
112.80
91.00
89.00
86.60
76.90
76.90
58.30
58.30
58.30
36.00
36.00
28.50
28.50
→
↓
↓
→
→
↓
↓
↓
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
-
-
18.70
24.35
21.00
28.50
28.50
28.50
→
→
→
09.01.2008
14.05.2008
07.01.2009
Not later than
07.01.2010
-
-4%
-35%
-83%
17%
8%
-30%
-70%
39%
42.50
41.00
39.20
32.31
33.20
28.20
26.52
26.01
18.22
18.35
19.05
18.31
14.97
11.44
6.81
6.59
4.80
4.63
41.90
45.90
48.90
44.90
44.20
44.20
36.50
36.50
35.50
32.10
23.60
23.60
23.60
25.00
25.00
19.10
19.10
16.60
↑
↑
↓
↓
→
↓
→
↓
↓
↓
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
↓
-
-
4.50
5.40
16.60
16.60
→
→
Recommendation
Echo Investment
Buy
Buy
GTC
Buy
Buy
Dom Development
Hold
Hold
J.W. Construction
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
09.12.2007
09.01.2008
14.05.2008
07.01.2009
12.02.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
08.09.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-
→
→
-
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
09.12.2007
30.11.2008
13.02.2008
12.03.2008
30.03.2008
03.04.2008
22.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
21.10.2008
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
-
-80%
-7%
-57%
6%
125.00
131.50
110.00
113.10
117.60
98.30
99.55
91.20
88.60
71.75
70.55
49.20
46.99
56.45
33.60
27.00
23.86
24.62
241.60
241.60
225.30
227.00
227.00
227.00
227.00
227.00
227.00
225.00
184.60
184.60
184.60
184.60
139.60
139.60
139.60
139.60
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
Alma Market
Hold
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
-
-
30.00
23.29
22.95
139.60
94.70
94.70
→
↓
→
-
27.03.2008
-
-75%
-50%
82.30
97.30
-
Bomi
Buy
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
30.03.2008
15.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
08.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
09.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
27.03.2009
-
-
-
83.65
81.50
69.00
72.00
72.40
68.50
61.15
51.00
50.30
42.80
37.39
25.40
25.00
25.40
27.20
21.70
21.40
21.40
20.50
97.30
97.40
98.20
98.20
98.20
95.90
86.20
87.10
81.50
64.10
64.10
64.10
32.10
32.10
30.30
30.30
30.30
30.30
30.30
→
↑
↑
→
→
↓
↓
↑
↓
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
→
-
23.06.2008
-
-52%
-15%
21.88
26.60
-
Emperia Holding
Hold
Sell
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.07.2008
04.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
26.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
23.06.2009
-
-
-
20.50
20.60
18.30
17.70
14.00
10.50
12.40
11.70
10.20
10.50
10.50
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
20.60
20.60
17.80
17.80
17.80
15.50
15.50
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
29.05.2008
13.01.2009
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
12.10.2008
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-59%
4%
-29%
18%
128.00
114.00
93.60
86.90
80.95
78.90
53.50
42.42
47.51
53.00
53.65
53.00
149.10
132.80
132.80
112.30
112.30
112.30
76.60
76.60
50.20
50.20
50.20
50.20
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
-
→
-
08.02.2009
13.01.2009
Not later than
13.01.2010
-
-
-
55.30
50.20
→
Recommendation
Polnord
Buy
Buy
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
13.02.2008
20.07.2008
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
23.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
-
-41%
-59%
-25%
-34%
112.00
122.00
115.40
106.00
110.20
118.70
112.00
94.00
65.95
147.90
147.90
147.80
148.80
148.80
148.80
148.80
147.50
91.70
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
↓
↓
Vistula Group
Sell
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
14.10.2008
29.10.2008
18.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
26.01.2009
08.02.2009
20.07.2008
Not later than
20.07.2009
-
-
-
50.50
45.20
45.00
45.93
35.50
31.77
25.01
28.61
26.30
24.67
26.10
91.70
81.10
81.10
81.10
56.40
56.40
44.60
44.60
44.60
36.80
36.80
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
-
29.10.2008
-
-24%
-13%
3.11
2.96
-
Netia
Buy
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
26.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
28.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
29.10.2009
-
-
-
3.11
2.75
2.70
2.50
2.38
2.40
2.35
2.96
2.41
2.41
2.41
2.41
2.41
2.41
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
-
17.11.2008
-
12%
20%
2.25
3.00
-
TPSA
Hold
→
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
17.11.2009
-
-
-
2.48
2.58
2.54
2.51
3.00
3.00
3.60
3.60
→
→
↑
→
-
03.03.2008
-
-7%
80%
21.88
23.20
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
30.03.2008
02.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
02.07.2008
28.07.2008
30.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
29.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
05.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
03.03.2009
-
-
-
21.65
21.65
22.00
20.51
21.79
22.33
23.99
22.86
22.45
23.39
18.90
18.90
19.50
20.48
19.87
18.75
23.30
23.30
23.50
21.90
21.70
21.70
22.30
22.30
22.30
22.90
22.50
22.50
22.50
22.50
22.50
22.50
↑
→
↑
↓
↓
→
↑
→
→
↑
↓
→
→
→
→
→
Recommendation
Inter Cars
Buy
Hold
Market-relative recommendation tracker
Relative recommendation
Kęty
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
BRE
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
30.03.2008
28.07.2008
28.09.2008
Not later than
28.09.2009
-
119.00
116.00
118.20
117.50
116.80
108.50
99.90
89.00
79.00
80.50
73.95
81.00
-1%
-17%
9%
16%
79.50
50.95
49.50
71.50
63.35
61.00
58.40
-
05.03.2008
29.04.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
30.11.2008
20.01.2009
Not later than
20.01.2010
-
388.00
364.90
368.90
350.00
364.50
371.00
410.00
355.00
362.00
391.00
391.00
355.00
329.80
184.00
167.90
184.00
209.00
202.00
160.50
163.20
-1%
1%
11%
-2%
-10%
-16%
-17%
116.30
128.00
-
29.06.2008
30.07.2008
19.10.2008
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
191.00
179.30
181.40
163.70
163.90
181.00
164.00
136.00
131.10
168.00
175.60
163.00
106.60
113.80
120.00
106.00
111.80
-14%
20%
-6%
8%
-13%
93.00
84.00
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
↓
07.02.2008
30.03.2008
28.07.2008
28.09.2008
09.03.2008
26.03.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
31.07.2008
31.08.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
12.01.2009
08.02.2009
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
05.03.2008
29.04.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
30.11.2008
20.01.2009
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
06.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.07.2008
28.07.2008
04.08.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
02.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
-
BZWBK
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
→
→
-
04.02.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
03.02.2008
29.06.2008
30.07.2008
19.10.2008
11.01.2009
25.02.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
16.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
11.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-
→
→
-
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
Market-relative recommendation tracker (continued)
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
29.04.2008
12.08.2008
28.09.2008
Not later than
28.09.2009
-
91.70
88.45
88.90
93.20
85.00
87.00
71.45
74.75
63.20
67.00
-2%
4%
-3%
-24%
60.50
44.30
46.50
45.35
50.50
41.99
31.50
-
30.03.2008
01.06.2008
Not later than
01.06.2009
-
605.00
580.00
525.00
494.50
495.50
509.00
517.00
-11%
4%
13%
415.00
490.00
490.50
531.00
424.00
385.00
389.50
419.00
424.90
360.10
300.00
-
31.08.2008
06.11.2008
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
21.50
22.30
21.60
21.50
19.70
16.80
14.99
14.00
13.80
11.00
10.10
10.33
10.68
10.93
9.60
-18%
7%
2%
-36%
5.76
-
19.01.2009
Not later than
19.01.2010
-
8.05
8.10
8.32
7.96
6.39
6.50
6.94
6.61
4.73
3.78
3.20
2.68
2.26
-46%
-10%
1.90
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
↑
03.02.2008
29.04.2008
12.08.2008
28.09.2008
08.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
11.05.2008
03.07.2008
31.08.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
05.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
03.02.2008
30.03.2008
01.06.2008
20.02.2008
23.04.2008
29.04.2008
22.05.2008
-
Kredyt Bank
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
09.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
12.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
31.08.2008
06.11.2008
19.01.2009
14.02.2008
30.03.2008
23.04.2008
15.05.2008
09.07.2008
07.08.2008
28.09.2008
15.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
Millennium
Underweight
Underweight
→
-
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
19.01.2009
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
21.04.2008
09.07.2008
22.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
14.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-
→
-
08.02.2009
Handlowy
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
ING BSK
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Pekao
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
30.03.2008
01.06.2008
28.07.2008
31.08.2008
29.10.2008
Not later than
29.10.2009
-
201.50
196.90
190.50
196.20
189.20
163.60
166.00
184.50
186.50
181.30
175.00
127.40
123.10
0%
4%
11%
-1%
0%
-7%
111.50
111.00
123.00
105.20
99.50
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
↑
03.02.2008
30.03.2008
01.06.2008
28.07.2008
31.08.2008
29.10.2008
29.04.2008
13.05.2008
29.06.2008
20.07.2008
03.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
-
PKO BP
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
→
→
→
→
→
-
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
↑
03.02.2008
30.03.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
12.02.2008
14.02.2008
26.03.2008
16.04.2008
29.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
15.07.2008
28.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
29.10.2008
09.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
30.03.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
19.01.2009
08.02.2009
Not later than
08.02.2010
45.12
43.01
45.82
44.00
44.95
45.00
45.40
48.15
50.35
45.00
43.50
49.30
49.02
49.00
44.90
28.60
29.50
30.80
32.00
34.33
29.60
25.50
2%
28%
-14%
16%
-8%
-
Police
Underweight
-
04.02.2009
-
4.47
-2%
→
-
08.02.2009
Not later than
04.02.2010
-
4.50
-
→
→
↓
07.10.2008
16.11.2008
-
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
16.11.2008
04.02.2009
-
62.75
52.00
55.75
52.00
55.90
4%
0%
-
↑
04.02.2009
06.01.2009
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
20.01.2009
-
Not later than
04.02.2010
-
52.25
50.75
48.00
47.88
40.30
10%
45.70
-
17.07.2008
22.10.2008
16.11.2008
Not later than
16.11.2009
-
0.95
1.06
0.64
0.72
0.81
0.91
0.96
0.69
0.72
0.58
-24%
62%
-15%
-16%
0.60
0.47
0.43
-
Puławy
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
→
→
→
→
→
Synthos
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
→
-
08.02.2009
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
24.04.2008
17.07.2008
22.10.2008
16.11.2008
14.05.2008
28.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
-
-
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
83.70
90.50
83.00
81.40
82.00
80.65
65.10
74.50
0%
4%
28%
80.70
86.75
74.35
67.00
61.10
63.50
61.00
55.05
56.00
56.00
-
Not later than
01.12.2009
-
2.36
19%
2.65
2.65
2.53
-
29.10.2008
25.01.2009
Not later than
25.01.2010
-
7.70
7.40
7.50
7.30
7.00
5.99
6.00
6.20
6.43
6.00
5.80
15%
7%
0%
5.59
-
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
281.60
317.90
326.70
325.00
311.00
318.00
315.00
318.00
268.00
238.00
245.00
248.00
238.00
232.00
192.10
191.50
198.30
208.00
211.50
30%
14%
192.90
208.50
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
→
↑
→
→
↑
06.02.2008
28.04.2008
28.07.2008
26.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
29.04.2008
14.07.2008
-
Energomontaż Południe
Neutral
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
07.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
15.01.2009
08.02.2009
28.04.2008
28.07.2008
Not later than
28.07.2009
-
-
01.12.2008
-
Hydrobudowa Polska
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
→
→
→
-
09.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
01.07.2008
29.10.2008
25.01.2009
06.07.2008
05.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
09.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
Budimex
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
PBG
Overweight
Overweight
→
-
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
06.02.2008
11.01.2009
17.02.2008
21.02.2008
30.03.2008
14.04.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
28.07.2008
04.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-
→
→
-
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
04.03.2008
16.03.2008
12.10.2008
16.11.2008
05.01.2009
Not later than
05.01.2010
-
79.50
84.90
74.05
72.00
77.75
78.65
71.00
70.00
71.50
50.00
51.60
49.99
50.50
40.20
39.50
37.97
16.39
17.49
-3%
-4%
-17%
8%
-56%
0%
17.47
15.70
14.70
-
16.04.2008
08.05.2008
Not later than
08.05.2009
-
7.57
8.15
8.10
7.11
6.90
7.25
-5%
1%
-39%
6.59
5.60
5.30
5.65
6.02
5.20
4.81
2.62
2.85
3.32
3.14
3.05
2.86
2.20
-
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.08.2008
14.09.2008
27.09.2008
27.10.2008
11.01.2009
28.01.2009
Not later than
28.01.2010
-
11.99
13.30
13.95
13.50
13.60
11.80
11.90
10.48
9.00
7.74
7.08
7.30
7.50
7.00
4.42
4.42
3.68
3.89
2.37
2.27
1.95
1.52
-2%
3%
-13%
-3%
-18%
0%
-36%
27%
-52%
-10%
5%
1.59
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
↑
06.02.2008
04.03.2008
16.03.2008
12.10.2008
16.11.2008
05.01.2009
18.02.2008
30.03.2008
20.04.2008
22.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
17.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
-
Polimex Mostostal
Overweight
Underweight
Overweight
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
20.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
↓
→
↑
06.02.2008
16.04.2008
08.05.2008
10.02.2008
30.03.2008
29.04.2008
-
Barlinek
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Under revision
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
14.07.2008
28.07.2008
05.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
13.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
↓
↓
↑
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
↓
28.01.2008
17.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.08.2008
14.09.2008
27.09.2008
27.10.2008
11.01.2009
28.01.2009
05.02.2008
25.02.2008
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
09.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
24.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-
→
-
08.02.2009
Pol-Aqua
Overweight
Under revision
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
21.04.2008
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
-
4.45
4.75
4.52
4.15
4.05
4.40
4.21
3.67
3.50
3.49
3.89
3.79
3.80
3.26
3.27
3.05
2.89
-7%
25%
-2%
2.67
2.60
2.50
-
26.10.2008
01.02.2009
Not later than
01.02.2010
-
28.50
29.11
26.49
26.50
25.60
15.03
15.20
16.00
16.57
12.70
14.11
11.99
13.60
14.06
9.10
-18%
-27%
5%
9.25
-
25.02.2008
29.04.2008
29.06.2008
20.10.2008
Not later than
20.10.2009
-
33.40
37.00
26.60
26.10
21.69
20.00
19.00
15.50
15.00
16.20
17.51
16.32
5%
-37%
-1%
24%
-45%
14.75
12.30
10.25
8.50
7.70
7.50
-
22.07.2008
16.10.2008
Not later than
16.10.2009
-
4.15
4.30
3.86
3.48
2.50
2.79
3.24
3.35
3.29
2.77
-29%
49%
-58%
2.68
2.25
1.90
1.10
1.15
0.92
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
21.04.2008
30.11.2008
24.02.2008
30.03.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
16.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
19.11.2008
-
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
29.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
26.10.2008
01.02.2009
25.02.2008
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
23.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
→
-
08.02.2009
↓
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
25.02.2008
29.04.2008
29.06.2008
20.10.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
01.06.2008
21.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
Lena Lighting
Neutral
Overweight
Underweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
18.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
28.01.2008
22.07.2008
16.10.2008
20.02.2008
30.03.2008
15.04.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
20.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
08.02.2009
Ceramika Nowa Gala
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Cersanit
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Decora
Overweight
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
37.00
44.99
44.00
45.40
45.40
46.94
48.00
45.50
34.00
36.51
39.99
39.90
38.40
28.00
25.89
29.95
27.80
24.50
16%
-3%
20%
22.01.2009
08.02.2009
25.02.2008
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
23.00
25.50
-
28.01.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
05.06.2008
-
22.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
11.04.2008
14.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
05.06.2008
-
0.80
0.80
0.76
0.67
0.63
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.37
0.35
0.32
0.23
0.21
0.17
0.16
-26%
-3%
1%
-47%
-
↓
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
07.02.2008
21.02.2008
11.05.2008
07.08.2008
09.11.2008
07.01.2009
13.03.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
02.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
15.12.2008
-
12.50
13.50
13.30
12.67
12.66
12.50
12.97
11.45
11.30
10.40
11.30
12.45
10.80
10.00
8.55
8.80
8.59
6.20
5.20
4%
-3%
5%
12%
-41%
47%
Asseco Poland
Overweight
Overweight
→
→
-
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
21.02.2008
11.05.2008
07.08.2008
09.11.2008
07.01.2009
Not later than
07.01.2010
-
5.34
6.39
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
03.02.2008
11.01.2009
30.03.2008
21.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
11.07.2008
28.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
24.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
68.00
70.00
69.35
64.65
63.00
58.15
51.95
57.30
61.10
62.00
60.50
61.70
45.30
46.40
47.98
48.70
28%
3%
-
→
→
-
14.01.2009
08.02.2009
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
45.05
43.40
-
Mercor
Neutral
Overweight
Overweight
Polcolorit
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Suspended
ABS
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
28.01.2008
25.02.2008
11.01.2009
11.03.2008
30.03.2008
24.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
21.07.2008
28.07.2008
11.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
→
→
-
→
→
→
→
↑
↓↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
31.08.2008
13.10.2008
16.11.2008
20.11.2008
Not later than
20.11.2009
-
124.60
116.60
118.80
106.60
90.90
93.80
79.05
68.00
70.00
80.00
74.00
74.50
64.00
60.00
64.00
47.00
-28%
11%
16%
-20%
7%
52.50
60.50
49.00
48.35
-
28.07.2008
06.10.2008
Not later than
06.10.2009
-
34.00
33.00
32.50
33.48
23.00
24.30
22.29
19.60
14.50
13.70
-12%
-34%
-12%
14.70
10.60
10.00
7.90
8.30
-
11.01.2009
Not later than
11.01.2010
-
17.50
18.10
18.44
18.57
18.97
17.48
15.40
13.40
13.25
13.88
13.20
12.35
7.94
8.19
8.25
8.30
8.60
-12%
-6%
6.50
6.98
-
16.10.2008
Not later than
16.10.2009
-
48.01
48.10
43.80
42.75
43.00
41.35
40.40
27.73
30.00
29.22
28.73
22.75
-21%
-29%
19.40
18.30
16.55
17.30
13.39
12.80
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
ComArch
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Under revision
Neutral
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
-
17.02.2008
31.08.2008
13.10.2008
16.11.2008
20.11.2008
06.03.2008
30.03.2008
16.04.2008
25.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
14.07.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
-
IVMX
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
→
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
03.02.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
04.02.2008
28.07.2008
06.10.2008
11.03.2008
30.03.2008
07.04.2008
15.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
4.02.2008
11.01.2009
14.02.2008
30.03.2008
11.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
03.07.2008
28.07.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
26.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.10.2008
30.11.2008
-
Agora
Neutral
Underweight
→
→
-
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
16.10.2008
11.02.2008
02.03.2008
06.03.2008
30.03.2008
17.04.2008
14.05.2008
17.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
01.02.2009
08.02.2009
Teta
Overweight
Overweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
Not later than
19.06.2009
-
13.90
101%
13.20
13.39
14.15
13.70
14.50
14.89
12.70
12.60
13.00
14.00
14.20
15.30
-
18.05.2008
16.11.2008
27.01.2009
Not later than
27.01.2010
-
9.70
9.68
9.70
8.70
8.65
8.37
8.60
8.20
7.25
6.36
6.60
7.60
7.99
7.35
6.50
5.97
6.16
6.63
7.65
7.45
-9%
27%
32%
-3%
7.00
-
20.05.2008
17.08.2008
20.10.2008
18.01.2009
Not later than
18.01.2010
-
22.40
24.80
24.35
23.00
22.44
22.80
22.30
20.00
18.75
16.35
19.30
17.90
18.30
13.80
13.04
13.26
13.28
13.00
12.29
-5%
11%
2%
-2%
-3%
10.85
-
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
27.01.2009
Not later than
27.01.2010
-
104.90
104.00
106.40
105.20
103.10
101.50
87.15
78.80
78.40
77.35
59.00
41.11
29.35
26.00
28.90
32.70
29.10
1%
-1%
-39%
25%
35.00
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
-
19.06.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
18.05.2008
16.11.2008
27.01.2009
17.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
09.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
12.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
→
-
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
↓
03.02.2008
20.05.2008
17.08.2008
20.10.2008
18.01.2009
12.02.2008
19.02.2008
30.03.2008
15.04.2008
29.04.2008
13.05.2008
01.06.2008
13.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
09.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
KGHM
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
→
-
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
17.02.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
27.01.2009
30.03.2008
07.04.2008
11.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
17.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
06.10.2008
29.10.2008
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
-
→
-
08.02.2009
Cyfrowy Polsat
Overweight
Multimedia
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
TVN
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
Not later than
31.08.2009
-
32.74
28.23
27.80
27.27
-5%
-1%
-41%
26.70
21.01
19.74
13.82
12.35
12.15
11.24
9.47
-
-
08.02.2009
Not later than
08.02.2010
26.26
22.70
-1%
-
20.02.2008
02.03.2008
17.08.2008
28.09.2008
30.03.2008
14.04.2008
29.04.2008
15.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
20.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.08.2008
-
34.00
34.00
37.29
39.18
37.20
36.30
37.24
34.44
32.89
31.50
30.03
31.00
30.80
5%
3%
9%
21%
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
03.02.2009
08.02.2009
02.03.2008
17.08.2008
28.09.2008
Not later than
28.09.2009
-
24.76
21.45
24.70
25.59
25.60
23.20
23.20
-
→
→
→
↓
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
↑
21.02.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
17.08.2008
11.01.2009
04.02.2009
03.03.2008
30.03.2008
24.04.2008
19.05.2008
13.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
21.10.2008
29.10.2008
23.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
81.90
76.00
74.95
79.50
80.20
77.80
67.00
54.55
59.55
54.70
40.80
32.00
23.50
27.80
27.99
26.20
19.19
5%
-17%
1%
-35%
-13%
-4%
Świecie
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
→
-
08.02.2009
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
17.08.2008
11.01.2009
04.02.2009
Not later than
04.02.2010
-
19.00
-
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
↑
21.01.2008
14.02.2008
27.04.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
29.01.2008
30.03.2008
02.04.2008
29.04.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
01.07.2008
28.07.2008
-
53.00
57.20
56.10
43.00
43.95
43.90
46.05
51.40
45.00
44.90
35.90
35.70
36.88
-6%
-15%
-10%
7%
79%
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
29.10.2008
02.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
15.01.2009
08.02.2009
14.02.2008
27.04.2008
03.08.2008
31.08.2008
Not later than
31.08.2009
-
41.60
41.00
31.50
33.00
36.60
40.50
38.00
39.08
-
Lotos
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
PKN Orlen
Neutral
Overweight
Farmacol
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
PGF
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
↓
↓
08.06.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
17.07.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
28.09.2008
20.10.2008
29.10.2008
19.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
20.01.2009
08.02.2009
↑
12.01.2009
08.02.2009
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↑
Echo Investement
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
GTC
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Dom Development
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
31.08.2008
07.10.2008
29.10.2008
Not later than
29.10.2009
-
7.64
6.38
3.70
4.30
4.50
4.30
3.13
2.30
-15%
-18%
-9%
3%
2.05
2.20
2.11
1.95
2.06
-
21.02.2008
30.11.2008
02.02.2009
Not later than
01.02.2010
-
47.00
36.50
35.24
36.36
35.48
41.40
26.35
29.00
25.00
23.00
19.00
16.00
12.30
15.98
15.50
12.42
-8%
-20%
-12%
2%
12.68
-
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
Not later than
13.08.2009
-
113.20
80.50
81.00
75.90
75.00
57.90
67.20
57.90
40.99
35.00
38.40
42.00
-51%
9%
-14%
37.40
29.70
23.17
16.20
15.27
18.00
18.70
24.35
21.00
-
29.04.2008
29.06.2008
29.10.2008
07.01.2009
Not later than
07.01.2010
-
42.50
41.00
39.20
32.31
33.20
28.20
26.52
26.01
18.22
18.35
19.05
18.31
14.97
11.44
6.81
6.59
4.80
4.63
-16%
-25%
-44%
-34%
39%
4.50
5.40
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
↑
09.12.2007
31.08.2008
07.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.03.2008
09.07.2008
17.08.2008
28.09.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
-
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
29.01.2009
08.02.2009
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
09.12.2007
21.02.2008
30.11.2008
02.02.2009
26.02.2008
30.03.2008
22.04.2008
13.05.2008
21.07.2008
12.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
09.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
→
-
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
↓
09.12.2007
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
20.02.2008
27.02.2008
30.03.2008
08.04.2008
29.04.2008
12.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
-
J.W. Construction
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
13.10.2008
29.10.2008
12.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
09.12.2007
29.04.2008
29.06.2008
29.10.2008
07.01.2009
9.01.2008
12.02.2008
30.03.2008
10.04.2008
14.05.2008
01.06.2008
03.07.2008
10.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
08.09.2008
06.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
-
→
→
-
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
30.03.2008
29.06.2008
28.09.2008
Not later than
28.09.2009
-
125.00
131.50
110.00
113.10
117.60
98.30
99.55
91.20
88.60
71.75
70.55
49.20
46.99
56.45
11%
-26%
-15%
-35%
33.60
27.00
23.86
24.62
30.00
23.29
22.95
-
15.04.2008
28.09.2008
Not later than
28.09.2008
-
82.30
83.65
81.50
69.00
72.00
72.40
68.50
61.15
51.00
50.30
42.80
37.39
25.40
1%
-62%
30%
25.00
25.40
27.20
21.70
21.40
21.40
20.50
-
28.07.2008
17.11.2008
Not later than
16.11.2009
-
21.88
20.50
20.60
18.30
17.70
14.00
10.50
12.40
-3%
-9%
-4%
11.70
10.20
10.50
10.50
-
10.07.2008
12.10.2008
13.11.2008
Not later than
13.11.2009
-
128.00
114.00
93.60
86.90
80.95
78.90
53.50
42.42
47.51
5%
-29%
-10%
30%
53.00
53.65
53.00
55.30
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
09.12.2007
30.03.2008
29.06.2008
28.09.2008
13.02.2008
12.03.2008
03.04.2008
22.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
03.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
21.10.2008
29.10.2008
13.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
02.02.2009
08.02.2009
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
27.03.2008
15.04.2008
28.09.2008
30.03.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
08.07.2008
28.07.2008
31.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
-
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
08.10.2008
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
30.11.2008
09.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
23.06.2008
28.07.2008
17.11.2008
04.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
19.10.2008
29.10.2008
-
Emperia Holding
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
→
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
26.01.2009
08.02.2009
↓
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
29.05.2008
10.07.2008
12.10.2008
13.11.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
29.10.2008
-
-
→
→
→
→
-
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
13.01.2009
08.02.2009
Polnord
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Alma Market
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Bomi
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
20.07.2008
30.11.2008
26.01.2009
Not later than
26.01.2010
-
112.00
122.00
115.40
106.00
110.20
118.70
112.00
94.00
65.95
50.50
45.20
45.00
45.93
35.50
31.77
25.01
28.61
26.30
24.67
-25%
-36%
-8%
12%
26.10
-
Not later than
29.10.2009
-
3.11
-13%
3.11
2.75
2.70
2.50
2.38
2.40
2.35
-
2.25
2.48
5%
15%
2.58
2.54
2.51
-
21.88
21.65
21.65
22.00
20.51
21.79
22.33
23.99
22.86
22.45
23.39
18.90
0%
23%
28%
14%
18.90
19.50
20.48
19.87
18.75
-
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
13.02.2008
20.07.2008
30.11.2008
26.01.2009
02.03.2008
30.03.2008
23.04.2008
29.04.2008
18.05.2008
01.06.2008
29.06.2008
28.07.2008
17.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
14.10.2008
29.10.2008
18.11.2008
11.01.2009
-
Vistula Group
Underweight
→
-
08.02.2009
-
29.10.2008
-
Netia
Neutral
Overweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
16.11.2008
26.11.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
28.01.2009
08.02.2009
↑
17.11.2008
30.11.2008
-
TPSA
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
→
→
→
-
11.01.2009
18.01.2009
08.02.2009
→
→
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
→
→
↓
03.03.2008
01.06.2008
02.07.2008
29.10.2008
30.03.2008
02.04.2008
29.04.2008
28.07.2008
30.07.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
01.10.2008
-
-
→
→
→
→
→
-
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
05.01.2009
11.01.2009
08.02.2009
Inter Cars
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
30.11.2008
Not later than
30.11.2009
02.07.2008
02.07.2008
29.10.2008
Not later than
29.10.2009
-
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Polish Equities Monthly: February 2009

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