Prezentacja programu PowerPoint - PL-Grid

Prezentacja programu PowerPoint - PL-Grid

1
Modelling the mid-term development of the
energy system with the use of technology
explicit partial equilibrium model
Artur Wyrwa1,2, Marcin Pluta1,2, Janusz Zyśk1,2, Szymon
Skoneczny2,Tomasz Mirowski1,2
1
2
AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow, 30-059 Poland
Academic Computer Centre CYFRONET AGH, ul. Nawojki 11, Krakow, 30-950 Poland.
Cracow, 05.11.2013
ESA - Platform for an Integrated
Energy System Analysis
• Dedicated to modelling of the mid-term development of the energy system
• Based on the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework
• Can be used to support the decision making process
Energy Model
TIMES-PL
Pressures
Dispersion
Emission
Inventory
Pollutans
PMs(10,2.5)
SO2
NOx
GHGs
Polyphemus
State
Impacts
Concentrations
Damage
Functions
Data
Europe
Resolution
Meteo
ECMWF
Spatial
Other
pollutans
EMEP
Natural
emission
EMEP
(conc&pop)
50x50
km
Vertical
11 level
Temporal
Annual
(10 min)
Impact indicators:
• Health
Depicting reality inside an
energy system model
n
k  cj  xj
j 1
n
a
j 1
ij
 x j  bi
xj  0
Reality
Cross-checking
results with reality
Model structure
 i  1, 2,...,m 
 j  1, 2,...,n 
Mathematical
description
Feedback
Optimiser
CPLEX
Parallel barrier optimizer
Model results
Data
TIMES energy model generator
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Linear programming, bottom-up, technology-rich
Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units
Price-elasticities for end-use demands
Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect competition)
Environmental, economical, technical, political constraints
Optimal technology selection in the time horizon considered (20-50 yrs)
Objective-function: Maximizes net social surplus
Source: TIMES-VEDA turtorial
Electricty Demand
1R1MO1
1R1MO8
1R2TU7
1R3WE6
1R4TH5
1R5FR4
1R6SA3
1R7SU2
2S1MO1
2S1MO8
2S2TU7
2S3WE6
2S4TH5
2S5FR4
2S6SA3
2S7SU2
3F1MO1
3F1MO8
3F2TU7
3F3WE6
3F4TH5
3F5FR4
3F6SA3
3F7SU2
4W1MO1
4W1MO8
4W2TU7
4W3WE6
4W4TH5
4W5FR4
4W6SA3
4W7SU2
0
0
1R1MO1
1R1MO8
1R2TU7
1R3WE6
1R4TH5
1R5FR4
1R6SA3
1R7SU2
2S1MO1
2S1MO8
2S2TU7
2S3WE6
2S4TH5
2S5FR4
2S6SA3
2S7SU2
3F1MO1
3F1MO8
3F2TU7
3F3WE6
3F4TH5
3F5FR4
3F6SA3
3F7SU2
4W1MO1
4W1MO8
4W2TU7
4W3WE6
4W4TH5
4W5FR4
4W6SA3
4W7SU2
Heat Demand
Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS
infrastructure
Demand Side
6
5
4
3
2
1
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Supply Side
Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS
infrastructure
Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response
Model coupling
Net electricity generation [TWh]
250
200
Other
Solar
150
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
100
Biogas
Biomass
50
0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Long-term energy modelling
Temporal profiles of emission release based on activity
[eq/ha]
0
1 - 500
501 - 1000
1001 - 1250
1251 - 1500
1501 - 1750
1751 - 2500
Changes in ambient concentration: SO2 [ug/m3]
Environmental and health impacts
Energy modelling wiht ESA
-functionalities
ESA
Functionality I
Functionality II
- users experienced in energy system
modelling who use the VEDA data
handling system:
ESA offers access to the
supercomputers of CYFRONET AGH
-users without knowledge of VEDA:
ESA offers an in-built RES, which can
be used to model the development
of the Polish energy system
Both user groups operate ESA through a web interface
-technologies used in the application:
JSP, Java, AJAX, Java Script
ACCESS to ESA
Encrypted connection
User is redirected after using alias piesa.plgrid.pl
Credentials on
zeus.cyfronet.pl
(The server tries to
establish SSH
connection)
If credentials are correct, then the user is redirected to the
requested page. For example „Model management”.
Page structure
Information about
selected model
Logout
Main menu
Description of a page
The user may select a model by choosing „Load own model”.
It is necessary when for the first functionallity.
List of models is created based
on files existing in user folder on
zeus.cyfronet.pl
When model is selected, then user may change values of model parameters
The table is used
to edit parameters
The button executes Java code, and files with parameter are modified.
Only part of the page is refreshed by using of AJAX.
Uploading a model
Running the simulation
User runs the simulation by page Simulation settings -> Run
simulation. Then the following command is launched on
zeus.cyfronet.pl
Name of result file. This name is
required by GAMS
qsub vqgams CYFRONET.RUN RESULTS
Script with defined parameters of
job (user’s certificate, number of
cores)
Previously selected model name
Summary
• The performed studies demonstrate that the ESA service can
be used for modelling the development of energy systems.
• It enables the users to efficiently solve the complex energy
models developed in TIMES with the use of the CYFRONET
AGH supercomputers.
• Future work will be dedicated to development of the structure of
the in-built model of the reference energy system and further
integration of the ESA components.
DZIĘKUJĘ ZA UWAGĘ
"Przedstawione prace są realizowane w ramach projektu PLGrid
Plus, który jest współfinansowany ze środków Europejskiego
Funduszu Rozwoju Regionalnego w ramach Programu
Operacyjnego Innowacyjna Gospodarka."
Dr inż. Artur Wyrwa
tel. 12 617-41-74
e-mail: [email protected]