GHG emission in Poland

Transkrypt

SELECTED EXAMPLES OF
MITIGATION POLICIES
AND MEASURES IN POLAND
Dr Sławomir Pasierb
The Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency, Katowice
[email protected]
Pre – COP IPCC workshop in Poland
2nd October 2008, Warsaw, IMGW
Fundacja na rzecz Efektywnego Wykorzystania Energii
ul. Rymera 3/4, 40- 048 KATOWICE, tel/fax: +48 32 203 51 14,
e-mail: [email protected]; www.fewe.pl
1
Were we are – GHG emission in Poland
mln t CO 2 /rok
563,4
0,3 - others
500
Kyoto Protocol -6%
31,8
N2O - 40,3
3,1 - others
CH4 - 53,71
-28,90%
400,5
N2O - 29,6
CH4 -37,2
CO2 - 469,1
CO2 - 330,5
100
1988
2006
Source [KASHUE]
Greenhouse gas emissions (without LULUCUF) in Poland in years 1988 and 2006
2
Who is responsible for GHG emission in Poland
Sector shares of total greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O
(329,8 mln t/year) in energy categories. 2006
Other sectors
16,6%
Transportation
11,7%
Manufacturing
and construction
10,3%
Energy industries
57,1%
Fugitive emission
4,2%
Source: [KASHUE]
3
GHG emission reduction objectives in Poland
NAPI/239,0
500
250
450
-20%
NAPII/208,5
200
21%
350
300
250
453,6
200
386,4
362,9
150
mln t CO2/year
mln t CO2/year
400
150
206
100
162,8
50
100
50
0
0
lata
lata
1990
2005
Total Poland (without LULUCF)
2020
2005
2020
Sectors covered by EU Emission Trading Systems (CO 2 only)
Emission reduction objectives of EU package 3 x 20% and ETS Directive
4
Emission Trading System in Poland
(1) Lesson lerned of NAPI period (2005 – 2007):
•
Too much allowances allocated - no press to reduce emission –
example power sector
•
Training and adjustment process of ETS actors
•
Institutional capacity building
(2) Projected impact of NAPII period (2008 – 2012)
•
No chance to meet the NAPII limits by power sector up to 2012
for reason of: growing electricity demand, coal based fuel
mixed, 6 – 8 years of investment period
•
Auctioning of CO2 emission allowances in the EU ETS can
increase costs of electricity production about 50 – 70% since
2013
•
Polish economy and society suffer a shock teraphy
•
Realocation of auctioning funds is crucial
5
Green energy (RES) – the objectives
8,5%
20,00%
EU - 27
5%
15%
Poland
2006
2020
Shares of renewable energy sources in energy consumption
6
Instruments of RES policy
(1)
(2)
(3)
Energy Law – mandated targets for electricity production
from RES, obligation of utilities
Target (Ordinance MG, 3 Nov 2006)
- 2007
4,3%
Target
5,1%
- 2010
Target
10,4%
Electricity prices of power production, on average (2007):
- on the market
129 PLN/MWh
- from RES
285 PLN/MWh
7
Other policy instruments
(1) Promotion of cogeneration (electricity + heat
production) Energy law, Ordinance – 14 Aug., 2008):
target responsibility, pricing system, substitute fee
(2) Funds
- POIS and RPO (structural funds)
- NFOŚiGW, WFOŚiGW
- Thermomodernization Fund
- ECOFUND
- EOG/NMF Fund
8
New policy instruments under preparation
(1) Energy Efficiency Act.
- Target: 9% of saving in 2016 (Dir. 2006/32/WE)
20% of saving in 2020 (CP/EU: 3 x 20%)
- Main mechanisms:

white certificates

long term agreements

national and local energy efficiency plans

leadership of public sector
(2) Construction Law (amendment 19 Sep. 2007):
- certification of the buildings – energy passports
9
Is business as usual policy enough to meet 3 x 20% target?
Forecasting of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Primary Energy and Energy
Intensity till 2020
8 000
9
7 000
8
Primary Energy - frozen - left axis
Primary Energy - bussines us usual left axis
bussiness us
6 000
7
according to frozen
5 000
6
primary
4 000
frozen energy
3 000
goal of Directive
2006/32/WE till 2016
4
energy
2 000
GD
3
1 000
0
2000
5
2005
2010
20
2015 16
2
Energy Intensity [TJ/106 zł 2000]
GDP [109 zł 2000], Primary Energy [PJ]
GDP - left axis
Primary Energy - goal of Directive left axis
Energy Intensity 2007 (frozen) - right
axis
Energy Intensity - bussines us usual
- right axis
Energy Intensity - goal of Directive right axis
Sources: metodology - FEWE S.Pasierb, J.Wojtulewicz; GDP
till 2020 according to Energy
2020
10
New strengthened policy is needed
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
New energy policy till 2030 (under preparation):
- ambitions goals to meet 3 x 20% package
- priority on energy efficiency
- long term direction to meet zero-energy growth of
economy
But there is lack credible studies and evaluations how to
realize 3 x 20% package on the least-cost approach
Policy has to introduce the real mechanisms to meet
targets
Institutional and management related questions have to
bee resolved
National Energy Efficiency Programme is needed
FundacjanarzeczEfektywnegoWykorzystaniaEnergii
ul.Rymera3/4,40
- 048KATOWICE,tel/fax:+48322035114,
e-mail:[email protected];www.fewe.pl
11
Koniec prezentacji, ale zaproszenie do współpracy
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]
12

GHG emission in Poland

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