The Dragon and the (Evening) Stars: Essays on the Determinants of

Transkrypt

The Dragon and the (Evening) Stars:
Essays on the Determinants of EU-China Relations
I. Arabaev Kyrgyz State University
International Centre for Euroasian Studies
University of Warsaw
Faculty of Journalism and Political Sciences
Paweł J. Borkowski
Anna Wróbel
Łukasz Zamęcki
The Dragon and the (Evening) Stars:
Essays on the Determinants of EU-China
Relations
Bishkek – Warsaw 2013
Reviewers
Prof. dr hab. Marian Edward Haliżak, WDiNP UW
Prof. Azibek Džusupbekov, Kyrgyz State University
Translation
Anna Wolna
Cover project
Tomasz Kasperczyk
©
©
©
©
Copyright by Paweł J. Borkowski, Warszawa 2013
Copyright by Anna Wróbel, Warszawa 2013
Copyright by Łukasz Zamęcki, Warszawa 2013
Copyright by Wydział Dziennikarstwa i Nauk Politycznych
Uniwersytet Warszawski, Warszawa 2013
All rights reserved.
Publishing sheets 10
Publisher:
Faculty of Journalism and Political Science, University of Warsaw
ul. Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28, 00–046 Warsaw
tel./fax (48–22) 55 22 952
www.wydawnictwo.wdinp.uw.edu.pl
ISBN: 978-83-63183-32-5
Printing: Zakłady Graficzne UW, w zam. 1144/2012
Table of Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Part I – On the Determinants of the European Union–China
Relations. Strategic Partners in Search of Their Identity
in the International Arena
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
!"#$
% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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,
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4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
.
11
11
.
.
.
.
.
.
12
17
20
26
28
33
.
.
.
36
44
50
Part II – On the Foundations of the Competitiveness of Chinese
EconomyAG" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
53
53
53
59
63
64
69
80
88
93
5
Part III – On the External Energy Policy of the PRC as
a Determinant in the EU-China Relations, LMNO . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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95
95
98
106
123
123
132
134
138
140
143
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Calendar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Index of geographical and ethnic names . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Index of persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Index of maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Index of pictures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Index of tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Index of graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
6
Introduction
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9
On the Determinants of the European Union
– China Relations. Strategic Partners in Search
of Their Identity in the International Arena
1. Introduction
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2 355
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6 758
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377
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19.288
20.346
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24.754
21.503
22.643
36.268
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18.703
18.072
16.196
18.636
23.069
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430.8
7
491.5
5
553.4
6
551.3
4
712.8
3
1162.5
1
1326.4
2
1162.5
2007
Table 10. )B$EEEWEE
12
422.0
8
475.6
7
538.0
6
605.4
5
633.0
4
782.0
3
1287.4
1
1461.9
2
1428.3
2008
9
364
8
370
7
406
6
485
5
498
4
581
3
1056
2
1126
1
1202
2009
7
466
9
411
8
448
6
521
5
572
4
770
2
1278
3
1269
1
1578
2010
7
555
10
476
8
523
6
597
5
660
4
823
2
1481
3
1474
1
1899
2011
73
105.2
17
%*9"
/
6364
10
/
%*9"
6
202.4
%*9"
%*9"
/
5
276.6
/
284.1
%*9"
6155
17
103.1
10
191.1
7
259.9
5
273.1
6455
17
106.9
11
201.2
7
252.4
6
279.6
7503
17
134.4
11
228.7
9
272.7
6
304.6
9153
14
183.5
11
265.5
9
316.5
8
346.9
10431
13
243.6
11
292.1
9
359.4
7
382.8
12083
13
304.5
12
322.7
9
389.5
7
448.3
13950
12
355.2
13
349.4
10
419.0
8
437.8
16070
9
471.6
13
370.2
11
456.5
10
458.6
12490
13
303
11
329
12
317
10
352
15238
12
400
11
401
13
387
10
405
18215
9
522
12
456
13
452
11
473
2.07
0.74
0.56
J$
*B$
*$
0.49
0.70
1.48
1.78
1990
2.37
1.99
3.37
3.86
2000
2.55
2.18
3.78
4.29
2001
2.85
2.41
4.42
5.02
2002
2.97
2.47
5.30
5.79
2003
3.24
2.72
5.91
6.45
2004
*-"$-bb
/-@
E5
E
1.38
JB$
1985
3.39
2.90
6.11
7.25
2005
3.64
3.16
6.40
7.98
2006
3.95
3.50
6.70
8.69
2007
Table 11. 4/"B$$@;,WE
4.22
3.75
6.87
8.86
2008
4.72
3.71
7.92
9.59
2009
5.24
4.46
9.07
10.34
2010
5.82
4.31
9.52
10.43
2011
*- " - A+_ A
/
)5
[ \, $-bb
/b/bcb$cb$3;c
x"(
-;
E(
EA+_
/
>
]^#]JE$
&E
A
'
Z/X/
[4\
4
+%
X/
4 $ ">//
<
+4/> / B$ $$
4$$"'j9"/
J9"$P
/W $ $ B$
+ "
4$
/ / /
$/
44 + / > $ $ +"&
4"$"$//
Table 12. #B$/W""EEEWEE-
%*9 $/ B$ China
Value in
USD
million
USA
% share in
export of
industrial
commodities
Value in
USD
million
Japan
% share in
export of
industrial
commodities
Value in
USD
million
% share in
export of
industrial
commodities
1995
13 057.3
10
126 759.2
30
111 839.7
27
2000
41 735.5
19
197 466.0
34
128 902.1
29
2001
49 409.5
21
176 163.6
33
99 456.0
27
2002
69 226.4
24
162 082.3
32
95 882.1
25
2003
108 669.3
27
160 291.3
31
107 080.9
24
2004
163 006.9
30
176 281.6
30
126 245.3
24
2005
215 928.4
31
190 737.2
30
125 445.4
23
2006
273 131.5
31
219 026.0
30
129 241.1
22
2007
302 773.2
27
218 115.5
27
117 857.7
18
2008
340 117.8
26
220 884.4
26
119 914.9
17
2009
309 600.8
28
132 406.6
21
95 158.6
19
2010
406 089.6
28
145 497.8
20
122 047.2
18
*- " - $-bb
"
/bb+Y
<!
+#4Z
)K
N*b - ;
E5
E] $-bb
"
/bb+Y
<!
+#4Z
49b
C$/i&-;
E5
E
44
#
Zg eJM / 4S - #
Zg [
\ Geoekonomia,
AE$
3E5
74
Table 13. $$EEEWEE
China
USA
Japan
Residents
Non-residents
Residents
Non-residents
Residents
Non-residents
2000
25 346
26 560
164 795
131 100
384 201
35 342
2001
30 038
33 412
177 513
148 958
382 815
57 433
2002
39 806
40 426
184 245
150 200
365 204
56 601
2003
56 769
48 548
188 941
153 500
358 184
54 909
2004
65 786
64 598
189 536
167 407
368 416
54 665
2005
93 485
79 842
207 867
182 866
367 960
59 118
2006
122 318
88 183
221 784
204 182
347 060
61 614
2007
153 060
92 101
241 347
214 807
333 498
62 793
2008
194 579
95 259
231 588
224 733
330 110
60 892
2009
229 096
85 508
224 912
231 194
295 315
53 281
2010
293 066
98 111
241 977
248 249
290 081
54 517
*-"-$-bb
"
/bb
+
'#*9-;
E5
E
4$/W/"
"/"
4I/
IPB$$/// /
EE 4 " B$ /$/
$EEE[+"(\
+ $ B$ " 4 /W
$ W 45 $
,(a @@E E /
"/B$
+"
" / /> W $ '" / @@E 4
B$ $ 45
_ T / / $ $ + $ T / /"-W$/
>"/
/ W $ / /$
" > $/ / $
75
76
*$
$
K
4
+%
X/
J
%*
273.6
1
79.6
4
118.5
2
30.1
12
82.1
3
69.4
5
16.0
22
52.1
7
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
2000
6
T,,
19
T3
5
5
T3(
5
3
T;
3
12
T&
@
2
T;
5
4
T;(
1
262.4
2001
6
59.5
19
19.1
5
66.0
4
87.9
10
39.3
2
132.9
3
96.7
1
269.3
2002
5
T5&
3
21
T&
3
7
T5
5
4
TEE
5
9
(3
&T
2
T,,
(
3
T3
(
1
278.8
2003
6
85.3
16
37.9
5
89.6
4
113.8
9
62.0
2
193.8
3
139.3
1
322.7
2004
7
T@(
E
11
T,
5
TE
E
4
T
(
9
T5&
@
2
TE(
3
T3E
,
1
352.5
2005
6
105.5
10
69.4
4
115.1
5
127.6
8
91.4
2
232.2
3
187.8
1
393.4
2006
5
T3
5
9
86.6
6
T5
E
4
T(;
7
T
3
2
T;&
3
3
T
@
1
462.5
2007
Table 14. )B$EEEWE
7
141.7
9
106.7
6
146.4
4
165.3
5
146.4
2
282.2
3
255.7
1
510.4
2008
7
121.5
12
92.6
6
125.9
4
141.9
5
128.5
2
228.2
3
225.7
1
475.9
2009
8
123.0
7
123.2
6
138.8
5
142.6
4
170.2
3
226.8
2
232.3
1
518.33
2010
8
141
6
148
7
143
5
161
4
182
2
274
3
253
1
578
2011
77
28.4
15
55.9
6
18.3
23
40.3
9
48.5a
10
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
%*9"
/
1483.0
8
/
%*9"
48.3
%*9"
1486.7
9
48.9a
10
T(
E
21
23.2
7
T,5
16
;
,T
8
50.1
1599.3
13
36.2
9
44.5
14
29.6
7
59.5
17
30.7
8
54.7
1831.8
12
T(&
&
10
T(3
,
14
T(
5
6
T5E
3
18
T&5
;
8
T3
&
2229.7
11
50.5
10
55.1
13
52.1
7
83.4
19
48.2
8
82.7
2495.9
13
T,(
10
T3&
3
12
59.4
6
T;;
&
16
,,
,T
8
T@E
2830.9
15
57.1
11
72.6
12
70.9
7
97.3
16
66.0
9
94.5
3408.1
13
72.2
12
T;(
3
10
T@
8
TE
(
14
;(
;T
11
TE@
E
3842.4
13
T;,
12
92.2
11
99.2
8
114.5
14
99.0
10
123.0
3386.0
14
79.4
13
86.3
9
T@
8
93.9
11
93.2
10
&T
3692.5
14
;
5T
11
106.4
13
96.6
12
97.0
10
111.9
9
113.2
4150
16
86
11
121
12
107
13
107
10
125
9
128
*- " - A+_ A
/
)5
[ \; $-bb
/b/bcb$cb$3;c
x"(
;
E(
EA+_
/
>
]^#]JE$
&3
a
T4"/!B"/
A
/
Z/X/
[4\
*/$
+?
,Ea [+" ,\
4M"$
>""B$
/W$TV//"
46
K "/ / $
4$ET""
/&Ea[+"3\
Z
EE,WEE@ $ " 4 (Ea / /"$
AM/4I$
" " EE " /" B$ [#$%%*\B$
[ #$ % % * \
>B$$[#$%
Table 15. 4B$"$@@EWE
Export value in USD million
Total
Transporservices
tation
1990
2000
5 855
2 706
30 430.5 3 670.963
Travel
1 738
% share in total export
Other
Total TransporOther
Travel
services services tation
services
1 411
100
46.21
29.68
24.09
16 231 10 528.54
100
12.06
53.33
34.59
17 792
10 907
100
13.90
53.37
32.72
5 720.21
20 385 13 639.29
100
14.39
51.29
34.31
46 733.6
7 906.41
17 406 21 421.19
100
16.91
37.24
45.83
2004
62 434.1
12 067.5
25 739 24 627.6
100
19.32
41.22
39.44
2005
74 404.1
15 426.5
29 296 29 681.6
100
20.73
39.37
39.89
2006
91 999.2
21 015.3
33 949 37 034.9
100
22.84
36.90
40.25
2007
122 206
31 323.8
37 233 53 649.2
100
25.63
30.46
43.90
2008
147 112
38 417.6
40 843 67 851.4
100
26.11
27.76
46.12
2009
129 549
23 568.9
39 675 66 305.1
100
18.19
30.62
51.18
2010
171 203
34 210.5
45 814 91 178.5
100
19.98
26.76
53.25
2011 183 101.3 35 610.93 48 514.83 98 975.55
100
19.44
26.49
54.05
2001
33 334
4 635
2002
39 744.5
2003
*-"-$-bb
/-@
E5
E
46
78
)"-
AG"0
!
AEE@$
;5W@&
Table 16. 4$"$@@EWE
Import value in USD billion
Total
services
1990
2000
2001
2002
4352
Transportation
3245
Travel
Other
Total
services services
Transportation
Travel
Other
services
637
100
74.56
10.79
14.63
36030.6 10 396.11 13 113.7 12 520.8
100
28.85
36.39
34.75
14 033
100
28.84
35.42
35.73
39267
11325
46528
13611.9
470
% share in total import
13 909
15 398 17 518.1
100
29.25
33.09
37.65
2003
55306.3 18 232.8 15 187.3 21 886.2
100
32.96
27.46
39.57
2004
72132.7 24 543.8 19 149.3 28 439.6
100
34.02
26.54
39.42
2005
83795.5 28 447.5 21 759.1 33 588.9
100
33.94
25.96
40.08
2006
100833
100
34.08
24.12
41.79
2007
130111 43 270.7
29 786 57 054.3
100
33.25
22.89
43.85
2008
158924 50 328.8
36 157 72 438.3
100
31.66
22.75
45.58
2009
158947
46 574 43 701.7 38 671.3
2010
193321 63 256.7
2011
34369 24 321.7 42 143.3
100
29.30
27.49
43.20
54 880 75 184.3
100
32.72
28.38
38.89
237582.8 80 444.93 72 473.59 84 664.24
100
33.85
30.50
35.63
*-"-$-bb
/-@
E5
E
% * $ X\
A $> /
4I$/P$
+)X/
$$/
47
+"$4I$
$
PT/B$$
"$
4T/>
$T>"
$ E U %*9 ,3 "
48 B /
/-%*9;&"EE%*9@3"EE@T
/%*9@,
;"
49+I"
EU%*9W,("
50EE%*9W"
51
47
48
49
50
51
A+_A
/
)
]^##A+_JE$
(W;&
A+_
/
>
]^#]JE$
&E
A+_A
/
)
]^##$
$
(
A+_
/
>
]^#]$
$
&
A+_A
/
)
]^##$
$
3
79
$/4//WB/I
44KY/$%*9&
&
52*T$/"I
/ # > 4 53 4I / $ >/"WR+S
A4$
B$ " > I // B/
MB$$$/
B$$
+
[B$\"[$\
9$+"5W; / $M [ ?
/Z/X/\B3EaU/>
Z
"//W>$
B$ A / 4 "//
/
4.3. Foreign Direct Investment
_/4V
/ $P [K9\ " $ 4 * @@E " K9 4 > / /" K9
$ 4 % * [J$ &\
E
V$)X/T
%*9&"
;
aK9/"[+"@\
4
/,3a$P$#
#4/$""////$$P
*@;E/$M"$/$
UW
54$$/
/"$/$$"
52
&9"EE/-4A6
3-
]^##$-bb
/b"b$"bWW"-,
E5
E
53
4
#
Zg N
J
!,
"
6
!
;"8->
)
]^^'|#ÂEE$
&3W&5
54
4
XW` A/ R4I *$ # N #B$- $$S
HK
65
)
5
!
H"@;5
3@
$
5W(E
80
81
29
+'$"X
+%X/
7
18
131
26
24
28
67
19
21
56
10
10
25
16
1990
13
44
29
46
28
39
78
27
29
70
11
11
33
23
2000
13
37
139
44
27
36
78
27
28
67
11
10
35
23
2001
14
35
150
42
26
33
77
26
27
64
11
9
36
25
2002
15
35
171
38
26
35
74
25
26
63
12
9
36
30
2003
18
34
190
38
25
41
77
25
26
66
13
10
38
34
2004
19
35
199
38
26
39
80
26
26
70
14
10
41
37
2005
*-"-A9$-bb
"
/-
E
E
5
32
/
68
…
22
K
'
23
+?
28
62
$
108
14
%*
Z/X/[4\
7
J
4
9
25
4
1985
21
34
206
36
28
40
82
28
27
73
16
11
45
39
2006
20
30
208
35
27
42
83
29
27
74
18
12
45
38
2007
23
31
212
35
29
53
86
29
27
77
18
13
47
35
2008
Table 17. JB$$/J9@;,WEE-B$
20
28
195
29
28
50
73
24
23
69
13
11
41
27
2009
18
29
223
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
29
2010
82
27
10
11
58
24
22
67
31
27
26
97
…
8
J
%*
$
+?
K
/
+'$"X
+%X/
4
Z/X/[4\
'
9
18
122
26
26
29
65
19
23
53
9
11
25
13
1990
14
24
139
40
29
36
75
26
28
65
10
15
33
21
2000
14
24
134
38
29
33
74
26
27
61
10
14
33
20
2001
15
24
141
37
29
32
71
25
25
58
10
14
31
23
2002
16
24
162
34
28
33
69
24
25
57
10
14
32
27
2003
19
22
181
34
28
37
72
25
26
59
11
15
33
31
2004
22
22
186
34
30
37
76
26
27
61
13
16
36
32
2005
*-"-A9$-bb
"
/, -
E
E
13
4
1985
24
21
194
34
32
38
78
29
28
65
15
17
40
31
2006
24
22
197
33
30
40
80
29
29
66
16
17
40
30
2007
29
22
202
34
32
54
85
29
29
68
17
18
41
27
2008
Table 18.J$$/J9@;,WEE-$
24
21
188
30
30
46
70
24
25
62
12
14
36
22
2009
25
20
217
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
25
2010
Graph 3. +"//K9$EE[%*9"\
153
United States (1)
China (2)
Hong Kong (4)
Belgium (17)
Brazil (15)
Germany (6)
United Kingdom (3)
Russia (7)
Singapore (22)
France (10)
Australia (16)
Saudi Arabia (11)
Ireland (14)
India (8)
Spain (30)
Canada (18)
Luxemburg (12)
Mexico (21)
Chile (26)
Indonesia (43)
95
52
24
69
62
26
48
38
46
46
36
15
228
106
71
41
39
34
34
2009
26
32
32
28
26
26
36
25
9
2010
25
21
23
30
20
15
19
13
15
5
0
13
50
100
150
200
250
*-%?4+9
A@!
>
]^##%??`=JE$
(
/$"4"W$/
" ) X/
55 K9 V
4/"/
//$
+TP
"$P$/W
/"/>/
564I$$/
$P V " $ / /$$"
+
X
T [+" \
/ "
"4"
4U"$$M
/ > $ $B $
[$'$"X+*/$\
AVBK94
" / $P / $
55
)"-`
AY
!R*$'j9#B$K9
4I )/ *S .
A
) EE3 &5
T($
,((W,,5]Y/!!4Z$/+R+/)/j
U'/4$4#U$)/S/"
}
A@!E
&$
5W
56
$ / / $ 4 M
+
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Table 19. 4K9@@EWE
Inward FDI in USD million
Value in
USD
million
% share in
global
inward
FDI
Share in
Chinese
GDP
Outward FDI in USD million
Value in
USD
million
% share in
global
outward
FDI
Share in
Chinese
GDP
1990
3 487
1.6
0.8
830
0.3
0.2
2000
40 715
2.9
3.4
915
0.1
0.1
2001
46 877
5.6
3.5
6885
0.9
0.5
2002
52 743
8.3
3.6
2518
0.4
0.1
2003
53 505
9.1
3.2
2854
0.5
0.1
2004
60 630
8.1
3.1
5498
0.5
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2005
72 406
7.3
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12 261
1.3
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2006
72 715
4.9
2.6
21 160
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2007
83 521
4.2
2.3
22 468
1.0
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2008
108 312
6.0
2.3
52 150
2.6
1.1
2009
95 000
7.9
1.8
56 530
4.8
1.1
2010
114 734
8.7
1.9
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Outward in USD
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2005
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9 689
2006
114 024
15 433
2007
95 115
29 923
2008
111 582
49 029
2009
94 555
28 202
2010
84 579
29 178
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United States (1)
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Switzerland (10)
Japan (4)
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Australia (20)
Spain (23)
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Luxemburg (17)
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4"5
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bbbKbb$$bEbE5cc/cM/bE5cc/c
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/ b"MbEE@WE5bE&b
c;&,E@(5
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4"/EE"
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b>bM
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4
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b"bEWEb5b
c@35E&
N)/4"~
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161
)
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bbbE,;553,EE
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$ccM
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bbWW/bb$/E
$$
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b"bbEE3b$"bc&(5
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$
b"bbEE3b"bc,;;
$
$
b"bbEE3b"bc;&;
$
$
$b,b&bb33;5;?"W*W/PW4W$$P
162
Index of geographical and ethnic names*
5 &; (@ 5E (=, &=3
;&E=&(E(5=(;
?=&(&
*=3
*"W*=(;,E
&
/5
&;
!=5(;5E(E((&
?=5E
?=,&
*=(
/,E3&E
/(
; &=( 3=; &E &; ( (3=(; 5E
118, 144, 147
4=&&=&((E(&
#=&5&@;E
*=(;
*=;
&
E
((
M"P&&&(
/&
/;
[4\(
P/ = , &E & (E=( ((=(, (;
@5E(E3(=,5=;&E&
&(&3=&5((((5=(;
/5E=5;E
,[eS/3\&
1
25
(
&E
M3;;(((&
@
@(E(;
/
b-)
4";E
4(E5E=5@$
4$*&(&=&((&
4(;(
4/,3
4"(
4/['$"4/\5
4&
4"['$"4"\(
4$
4M'$"E
9E
9U/&;
9;
9(3
#4*;@
#*"&;
#(
#/$&
#;
#
#$=(@=,5=@&=&(&5=&@
((=(;,&&&=&(((=(,(5
A#$;,,&3@=5E&&
K3
K=&(((,E3@=5&
///$b$$
e S
163
KPE5
KE&
J"5
J^(;
J/&(
J E =& , 3 ( (( 3
3@=5&
J,((&
J5
Z;
Z(
Z,3
Z/X/&5;E(5
Z/E
Z/((
5 3 ,& 3 5; ;& ;; @ ;
&5=&;
_,5=;
E
5(;E
['$"\(E(5&,=&;
U&,&5
3@=5&
$;&;=&@,E,&33@=5;&@&
100, 103, 136, 139
$*&;&@
XM&&
X5
X;
X/,E
X
?=(E
* ['$" X\ = &; 3
79, 71, 83, 139
X5
!
!,@
!"&
!";@@
!
!(;
!&
!B"/((
!(((;
)&
)5
)3;=@
)
)"(
)5
)/'E
164
)B@(
)#5E(=,;&(&(
&3=&5(E(&
);
)[\,=3;
?"5
+?(((35E=5;E
?/3=5&E
?(=(&&3
_3
>_;&;(;[\3[\5=
;&;((([/\
35;&5=&;
4(
;
5=;&
$I '$" 4 [4 )
X/\ 5=@ 3=3 ;=&( &3=&5
&@=,& 3=3, 3@=5 5(=5, 5;=;E ;&
;5=;;@=@&@,=E;=35;=
&=(,(5=(;
J3&,
(
"/[\,
$$@
@E((@
/((
/(&(;
q3&5
'*;
'&3
'
'53(3=(535@3@@&
&(&3&;=(E
*)[9\,
*"3;&3
*((
*
*/$&;3;&@
*&;
*
*
*4*;=@
*%5
*$((&
*$@
*ZM;
*)(=3
*['$"*\,E(3;=
129, 132
*=(;=@
*((3
*M3
*(5
+$(
+['$"4\=&&&&;3
83, 119, 124
+$3
+M(@
+&,&3
+5;
+J/9E(E,
+"E&E
+@$
+&&
%"#3;
%X/=&,((33@=5
% * [%*\ ; =&
5=@ & @ &E &;=(E (; ,E 3
3@=55;=;E;;@@&@,=@3@@=EE
E, E5 & ; & &(=&; (E
(((
%M"&
<M(
<@
<5(@
A/,@&(
YP/ [YP/ %/ '/&(\
`/M'E(
`,
N"(@&E=&
NE
NE
N""(;=(@
165
Index of persons
" [" " " MM *\
137
4&((&
m,(
m)(E(&(;
M_W;
X/3
K@E
,,=,3
MM(&
4$W'$&E
4áMZ/(
4Y(
4U
4$K&@
4(,
4&;
9U
9/Y$/;(5@,=@3(,(5
9#*
E
9/Z
,5
KBE((
K`/(&
KK,E
J"/'&3
JKkE
Z"r/&5
Zg#(@&@;
Z<(
ZPl&5
Z4$&3
Z@3E(,&(;
/E5
1
/N((5
XGM
!XU/,
!Y"(=(&
)NB(&
))&;
)&5
) N/ [) +W/\ ; [$W)\
(3[)I\
)/E,
)GM,3
)(
)MA//M&@
)/"'"(;
)!&E
?$(
_"((
_X,&
)#
,,,5=,;
'@E(;
*PM+M(&
*(
*M?E(((;
*)&E
*lJE
*)&3
*$'M
**E5
+P$E
<'$Z(;
A"&,=3,(;
A+A
A"%&
Y`W4/E
`/Y,
N/&3
N/P@3
N#&
NO"'M
/$$e S
166
Index of maps
)$
9"I/$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
)$
W4$$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
)$&
X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
)$(
$"$/*ZM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
)$,
4*$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
)$3
XMW4$$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
)$5
4=4$$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
)$;
_>$$*** . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
)$@
#*_ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
167
Index of pictures
4""$ . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
$$. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
&
4W?_4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
(
#/'4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
168
Index of tables
+"
<""4"EE,WEE;
[\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
+"
/"#$%$I'$"4 . . . . . 35
+"&
)/'4#%[W\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
+"(
#%W4$A+_= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
+",
+J"4$BE=E/EE=E
$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
+"3
!"J9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
+"5
*$PJ9@@EWE
[a\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
+";
*/"@@EWE[aJ9\ . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
+"@
WR/$/S"
4"@@WE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
+"E
)B$EEEWEE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
+"
4/"B$$@;,WE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
+"
#B$/W""EEEWEE%*9$/B$
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
+"&
$$EEEWEE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
+"(
)B$EEEWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
+",
4B$"$@@EWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
+"3
4$"$@@EWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
+"5
JB$$/J9@;,WEE-B$ . . 81
+";
J$$/J9@;,WEE-$ . 82
+"@
4K9@@EWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
+"E
J>$P4EE,WEE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
+"
+
XJ"*!BE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
+"
""///$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
169
Index of graphs
J$
+B/"4*"W*@;E=EE3 . . . . . . . . . . 49
J$
4$EE,= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
J$&
+"//K9$EE[%*9"\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
J$(
+/K9$EE[%*9"\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
J$,
+$$$EE[" . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
J$3
$4@@EWE . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
J$5
4I/BEE@ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
J$;
4I"//$[W_"EE; . . . . . . . . . . .
%*9\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
J$@
!I[a\ . 142
170

The Dragon and the (Evening) Stars: Essays on the Determinants of

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