PGE - komentarz do wyników za III kw. 2014 r.

Sektor energetyczny
PGE
ALERT
III kw. 2014 pod wpływem zdarzeo jednorazowych.
Wyniki grupy PGE były zgodne z oczekiwaniami analityków na poziomie zysku operacyjnego i
EBITDA, ale na poziomie zysku netto widoczny jest wpływ zdarzeo jednorazowych z tytułu
odpisów aktywów finansowych. Zysk EBITDA w III kwartale br. wyniósł 1,7 mld PLN, a zysk netto
387 mln PLN. Oczyszczona o efekty zdarzeo jednorazowych EBITDA wyniosła 1,5 mld PLN.
mln PLN
III kw. 2013
III kw. 2014
I-III kw. 2013
I-III kw. 2014
Przychody
7 480.75
6 649.00
r/r
-11.1%
22 581.58
20 857.00
-7.6%
6 964.1
-4.5%
EBITDA
2 090.00
1 698.00
-18.8%
6 336.00
6 305.00
-0.5%
1 685.6
0.7%
EBIT
1 332.00
930.00
-30.2%
4 100.00
4 055.00
-1.1%
929.7
0.0%
Zysk netto
1 111.00
387.00
-65.2%
3 304.00
2 884.00
-12.7%
743.7
-48.0%
Ma rża EBITDA
28.6%
30.4%
Ma rża EBIT
18.4%
20.9%
Ma rża netto
13.9%
16.8%
EBIT
PLN mn
Generation
r/r
3Qkonsensus
EBITDA
IIIQ2014
IIIQ2013
IIIQ2014
IIIQ2013
488
785
2 137
1 218
28
26
83
78
Wholesale
118
229
100
234
Distribution
344
356
606
603
Retail
-55
-49
-102
-47
RES
odchylenie%
W wynikach segmentu wytwarzania widoczny wpływ niższych cen energii, które wyniosły 166 PLN wobec
178 PLN w 3Q 2013r. Na niższym poziomie były także przychody z KDT, które wyniosły 192 mln PLN .
W segmencie sprzedaży hurtowej nastąpił istotny spadek wyników ze względu na niższe przychody ze
sprzedaży energii. W segmencie sprzedaży detalicznej zanotowano podobną stratę na poziomie zysku
operacyjnego –55 mln PLN jak w analogicznym okresie poprzedniego roku.
Wyniki są poniżej oczekiwao na poziomie zysku netto ze względu na wpływ wyższych kosztów finansowych
z tytułu odpisu obligacji wyemitowanych przez Autostradę Wielkopolską S.A. w wysokości 386 mln PLN
oraz ok. 130 mln PLN z tytułu zabezpieczenia emisji euroobligacji. Na konferencji wynikowej Spółka
zasygnalizowała możliwośd wystąpienia efektów zdarzeo jednorazowych również w IV kwartale ze
względu na potencjalne uwzględnienie niższych stóp dyskontowych w wycenie rezerwy z tytułu świadczeo
pracowniczych i rezerwy rekultywacyjnej.
Stanisław Ozga, CFA
(0-22) 521-79-13
[email protected]
Dom Maklerski PKO BP SA
ul. Puławska 15
02-515 Warszawa
12 listopada 2014 r.
Istotne zastrzeżenia i informacje na temat powiązao pomiędzy DM a spółką znajdują się na ostatniej stronie niniejszego opracowania.
ALERT
Wybrane dane operacyjne.
2Q2014
2Q2013
%
Wydobycie węgla brunatnego
mln ton
11.83
12.52
-5.5%
Produkcja energii netto
TWh
13.12
13.57
-3.3%
w tym węgiel brunatny
TWh
9.16
10.12
-9.5%
w tym węgiel kamienny
TWh
3.13
2.66
17.7%
w tym CHP węgiel kamienny
TWh
0.25
0.24
4.2%
w tym CHP gaz
TWh
0.08
0.11
-27.3%
w tym szczytowo pompowe
TWh
0.09
0.1
-10.0%
w tym wodne
TWh
0.14
0.16
-12.5%
w tym wiatr
TWh
0.14
0.06
133.3%
w tym CHP biomasa
TWh
0.13
0.12
8.3%
Sprzedaz ciepła
PJ
2.48
2.74
-9.5%
Sprzedaż energii do odb. finalnych
TWh
9.65
8.9
8.4%
Dystrybucja energii
TWh
7.73
7.62
1.4%
Dom Maklerski PKO BP SA
ul. Puławska 15
02-515 Warszawa
12 listopada 2014 r.
Istotne zastrzeżenia i informacje na temat powiązao pomiędzy DM a spółką znajdują się na ostatniej stronie niniejszego opracowania.
Dom Maklerski PKO Banku Polskiego
ul. Puławska 15, 02-515 Warszawa
tel. (0-22) 521-80-10, fax (0-22) 521-79-46
e-mail: [email protected]
Contact telephone numbers
Equity Research Department
Director
Mining , building materials
Artur Iwaoski
(022) 521 79 31
[email protected]
Monika Kalwasioska
(022) 521 79 41
[email protected]
Stanisław Ozga
(022) 521 79 13
[email protected]
Jaromir Szortyka
(022) 580 39 47
[email protected]
Włodzimierz Giller
(022) 521 79 17
[email protected]
Oil & gas, chemicals, food
Energy, developers
Financial sector
Retail, TMT
E-commerce, technical analysis
Przemysław Smolioski
(022) 521 79 10
[email protected]
Paweł Małmyga
(022) 521 65 73
[email protected]
Technical analysis
Institutional Sales Department
Wojciech Żelechowski
Dariusz Andrzejak
Krzysztof Kubacki
Tomasz Ilczyszyn
Michał Sergejev
Tomasz Zabrocki
(0-22) 521 79 19
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 91 39
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 91 33
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 82 10
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 82 14
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 82 13
[email protected]
Piotr Dedecjus
Maciej Kałuża
Igor Szczepaniec
Marcin Borciuch
Joanna Wilk
Mark Cowley
(0-22) 521 91 40
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 91 50
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 65 41
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 82 12
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 48 93
[email protected]
(0-22) 521 52 46
[email protected]
Applied terminology
min (max) 52 weeks - lowest (highest) share’s market price during last 52 weeks
market capitalisation - number of shares multiplied by share’s market price
EV - market capitalisation plus net debt of the company
free float (%) - shares possessed by shareholders having less than 5% stakes, excluding own shares possessed by the company
ROE - return on equity
ROA - return on assets
EBIT - operating profit
EBITDA - operating profit plus amortisation
EPS - net profit per share
DPS - dividend per share
CEPS - net profit plus amortisation per share
P/E - share’s market price divided by EPS
P/BV - share’s market price divided by book value per share
EV/EBITDA - EV divided by EBITDA
Gross margin on sales - gross profit on sales divided by net revenues
EBITDA margin - EBITDA divided by net revenues
EBIT margin - EBIT divided by net revenues
Net profitability - net profit divided by net revenues
Investment ratings
BUY - we are convicted that shares have growth potential not less than 15%
ACCUMULATE - we are convicted that shares have growth potential not higher than 15%
NEUTRAL - we expect relatively stable quotations of the company
REDUCE - we are convicted that shares are overpriced not higher than 15%
SELL - we are convicted that shares are overpriced not less than 15%
Investment recommendations published by PKO BP Securities are valid within 12 month period from the date of the report or till realisation of the target price unless report is updated. PKO BP Securities updates its reports depending on current market situation and subjective analysts’ opinion. Frequency of such updates is not predetermined. Remark pointing speculative character of the investment means that the time period is shortened to 3 months and such investment characterizes strong volatility risk.
Applied valuation methods
PKO BP Securities fundamentally bases on three valuation methods: DCF (discounted cash flow model), comparative method (comparison of main ratios with equal market ratios characterising similar
companies from the same sector) and discounted dividend model (DDM). Main disadvantage of DCF and DDM models is that these models are very sensitive to assumptions affecting terminal value.
DDM model cannot be also applied to valuate companies without dividend politics. Main advantage of the two models is independence on current market pricing of comparable companies. Main
advantage of comparative method is that it bases on rational market valuation of the sector. Its main disadvantage is risk that current market value of the comparable companies is not correct.
Relationships that may affect objectivity of the report
PKO BP Securities certifies that between the researcher developing this report and the company (companies) reviewed in this report, there are no other relationships referred to in Articles 9 and 10 of
the Ordinance of the Council of Ministers dated 19 October 2005 defining standards in recommendations related to financial in struments and their issuers. Investor should assume that PKO BP Securities is going to offer its services to the company reviewed in the report.
Other clauses
This document has been prepared by PKO BP Securities exclusively for the clients of PKO BP Securities and shall remain embargoed for a period of seven days following its publication date. Distribution
or copying of the entire report or any part thereof without prior written consent of PKO BP Securities is prohibited. This document has been prepared with due diligence based on facts deems as
credible (especially financial statements and announcements published by the company), however PKO BP Securities does not guarantee that these are absolutely precise and complete. This document
has been prepared basing on every information related to the company publicly accessible at the preparation date. The presented forecasts are based exclusively on analysis conducted by PKO BP
Securities , without its reconciliation with the company or any other entities, and are based on a series of assumptions which - in the future - may turn out to have been incorrect. PKO BP Securities
grants no assurances that the presented forecasts will indeed come true. PKO BP Securities may render its services to the companies reviewed in this analysis. PKO BP Securities shall bear no liability for
any losses incurred as a result of any decisions adopted on the basis of the information included in this document. PKO BP Securities is under supervision of Polish Financial Supervision Authority
(Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego).