docStruktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym. Faza
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Struktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym. Faza
Ba n k i K redyt 44 (1) , 2013, 99–118
www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl
www.bankandcredit.nbp.pl
Struktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym.
Faza wzrostu
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Czas
Etapy pośrednie
7
KP 2
6
5
4
KP 1
3
2
1
Dobra konsumpcyjne
Produkcja
p$I#4@6(@>$2,@/2".&("2(>@#3?2/.&([=@+3&"(W9:77O;
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Czas
Surowce
Dobra produkcyjne
Dobra hurtowe
Konsumpcja
0
Zmiana cen (%)
104
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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PKB
Średnia PKB
Trend roczny
Trend 2-letni
Trend 3-letni
Średnia z 3 trendów
2011
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I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Inflacja
Cel NBP
Stopa referencyjna
Faza wzrostu
p$I#4@6(///;">L;>D;
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109
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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2002
2003
2004
2005
M1
2006
M3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Faza wzrostu
p$I#4@6(@LD.,%&".2("2(>@#3?2/.&(#2"5,-(1i_;
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I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2002
2003
Inwestycje
p$I#4@6(\h[(W9::VP9:792O;
2004
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2005
2006
Produkcja przemysłowa
2007
IV I II III IV I II III IV
2008 2009
Konsumpcja
2010
2011
Faza wzrostu
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Inwestycje
Produk- Konsumcja przepcja
mysłowa
2002–2004
Inwes- Produk- Konsumpcja
tycje cja przemysłowa
2005–2008
Cała faza wzrostu
Inwestycje
Produk- Konsumcja przepcja
mysłowa
2009–2011
Faza wzrostu bez boomu
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I
2005
Surowce
II
III IV
I
2006
II
III IV
2007
Metale
p$I#4@6(@LD.,%&".2("2(>@#3?2/.&(\h[(W9::AP9:792O;
I
II
IV
2008
2009
Maszyny
I
II
III IV
2010
Zaopatrzenie
I
II
III IV
2011
Spożywcze
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145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Surowce Metale Maszyny Zaopa- Spożyw- Surowce Metale Maszyny Zaopa- Spożywtrzenie
cze
trzenie
cze
2005–2008
Cała faza wzrostu
2009–2011
Faza wzrostu bez boomu
p$I#4@6(@LD.,%&".2("2(>@#3?2/.&(\h[(W9::VP9:792O(@$2%(///;3?2?;G@l;>D;
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Konsumpcyjne
Węgiel kamienny
Żwir, piasek i gliny
Cement, wapno, gips
Żeliwo, stal, żelazostopy
%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009–2011
p$I#4@6(@LD.,%&".2("2(>@#3?2/.&(\h[(W9::VP9:79LO;
30
35
40
2005–2008
45
50
55
60
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The price structure in the Polish business cycle. Growth phase
Abstract
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