REVIEW OF DAIRY SECTOR IN POLAND Introduction

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Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu – CCCLXVII (2005)
MICHAŁ SZNAJDER, OLGA KRUSIŃSKA, ANNA WIELICKA
REVIEW OF DAIRY SECTOR IN POLAND
From Department of Food Management Economics
of The August Cieszkowski Agricultural University of Poznań
ABSTRACT. The paper presents general situation in Polish dairy. The sector thrives on concentration in milk production. Dairy farms increase herd-size, some ineffective dairy farms go out of
business as milk production requires vast investments due to high hygiene standards and economies of scale. Changes result in rising effectiveness as milk yield grows, and on farm use decreases. After collapse in 1989 and downward trend in 90’s production of basic products like
milk, butter and fermented drinks increases. Situation on goods export market is highly affected
by global prices. However the development of the production depends on milk quota, which will
limit Polish dairy in future. Overall consumption is declining. On the upward trend is only cheese.
These tendencies are consistent with the changes in Western Europe.
Key words: dairy, dairy industry, dairy farming, consumption, dairy products
Introduction
Being involved in daily problems of dairy industry we often overlook some general
trends and broader aspects of changes, which would help us better understand individual
decisions of farmers, consumers and processors in the past and in the future (Sznajder
et al. 1998).
Purpose of this paper is to present the general situation of dairy industry, consumption and define some prospects for them. Review is divided into three following sections:
1) dairy farms and dairy cows,
2) production and prices,
3) consumption.
The data were collected from Central Statistical Office (Roczniki... 1950-2004).
Rocz. AR Pozn. CCCLXVII, Ekon. 4: 113-125
© Wydawnictwo Akademii Rolniczej im. Augusta Cieszkowskiego w Poznaniu, Poznań 2005
PL ISSN 1731-0261
114
M. Sznajder, O. Krusińska, A. Wielicka
Dairy farms and dairy cows
Decline in overall farm numbers by 4% as an effect of shrinking profitability in
small entities is observed. More serious drop by 33% appears in dairy farms as a result
of rising cost of production: high-cost equipment and breeding connected with acute
hygiene standards (Jażdżewski 2001). A dairy farm, which makes profit, is no longer
for everybody – it needs significant investments. Non dairy farms thrive- growth in
numbers by 17% (Fig. 1).
M.
mln
3.5
3067
3.0
2933
1996
2002
2.5
2058
1758
2.0
1309
1.5
875
1.0
0.5
0
Dairy farms
Farmy mleczne
Non dairy farms
All farms
Farmy bez produkcji mleka Wszystkie gospodarstwa
Fig.1. Number of dairy farms, non dairy farms and all farms
(based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 1. Liczba farm mlecznych, liczba farm nie zajmujących się produkcją mleka,
ogólna liczba farm (na podstawie danych GUS)
Changes in structure – growing number of dairy farms (mainly specialized in another production) with one cow, dedicated to self-provisioning and exponential increase
of large and mid-sized herds starting from 10 cows (Szymańska 2005). Polish milk
production starts concentration process (Fig. 2).
%
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
46
42
28
22
1996
19
2002
15
10 11
1
1
2
3-4
5-9
5
10-19
0.15
0.11 1.15 0.10
20-49
≥ 50
Number of cows – Liczba krów
Fig. 2. Percentage of dairy farms according to cow numbers in a farm
Ryc. 2. Odsetek farm mlecznych w zależności od liczby krów
(na podstawie danych GUS)
115
Review of dairy sector in Poland
Production and prices
In period 1989-2003 increase in milk production per cow by 22% did not offset the
cow loss – drop by 42% – milk production fell down (Fig. 3).
5
4
6000
4.994
5000
3969
3260
4000
2.898
3
3000
2
2000
cow numbers – pogłowie krów
1
Milk yield (l)
Wydajność mleczna (l)
Cow numbers (M.)
Pogłowie krów (mln)
6
1000
milk yield – wydajność mleczna
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 3. Cow numbers and milk yield per cow (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 3. Pogłowie krów i wydajność mleczna jednej krowy (na podstawie danych GUS)
The shrinkage of cow numbers resulted in overall drop in milk production by 3%
during latest 10 years (1994-2003) but changes in the structure of dairy farms and growing per-cow production affected milk collection (Sznajder 1999), which went up by
17% in the same period (Fig. 4).
mld l
18
16
14
12
16
11.5
11.4
10
7.3
8
6
4
2
milk production – produkcja mleka
milk collection – skup mleka
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 4. Milk production and milk collection (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 4. Produkcja i skup mleka (na podstawie danych GUS)
63% of milk production is delivered to processing plants and we project further
growth thanks to specialization, profitability and falling number of small dairy farms
producing milk for own purposes or local sales (Fig. 5).
116
%
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1949
1955
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 5. Share of milk collection in milk production (1949-2003) (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 5. Towarowość gospodarstw mlecznych (na podstawie danych GUS)
After “stable price period”, entrance to EU became growth factor for farm gate milk
prices, which went up to 86 PLN/hl in 2004. In comparison with year 1995 prices nearly
doubled (95% growth), and probable scenario for 2005 was 100 PLN/hl and even more
(Fig. 6).
PLN/l
1.4
1.28
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.98
1.31
1.32
0.72
0.72
1.12
0.88
0.78
0.75
0.62
0.6
0.4
1.03
1.32
0.44
0.61
0.78
0.61
0.51
average farm gate price – średnia cena skupu
0.2
average retail price of 2% fat milk
średnia cena detaliczna mleka o zawartości tłuszczu 2%
0.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 6. Average farm gate price and retail price of 2% fat milk (based on data from
CSO)
Ryc. 6. Średnia cena skupu i średnia cena detaliczna mleka o zawartości tłuszczu 2%
117
Polish economy survived the period of centrally planned prices. Gate milk price offered to farms between 1971-1989 excelled retail price, which was regulated to be stable
from 1971 to 1981. You were allowed to produce as much as you could – state guaranteed sales. Since 1989 we have accepted liberalized economy and prices are at mercy of
State Agencies (ARR) and open market (Fig. 7).
%
450
farm gate price
(retail price = 100%)
cena skupu
(cena detaliczna = 100%)
400
350
300
retail price – cena detaliczna
250
200
150
100
50
0
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 7. Farm gate price vs retail price (retail price = 100%)
Ryc. 7. Relacja ceny skupu do ceny detalicznej (cena detaliczna = 100%)
We observe stable ratio of farm gate and retail milk price – about 55%. Visible
peaks are caused by enormous increase in farm gate prices as a result of transient prosperity in dairy industry (Fig. 8).
Breakthrough in milk production and cow numbers in 1989 caused by falling profitability (no guaranteed prices and markets) and huge imports from Western countries,
which additionally subsidized exporters limited growth in recent years. Year 2003
started recovery in the sector (Fig. 9).
Shift in agricultural production and consumer preferences resulted in a sudden drop
of fluid milk production in 1989. Slow recovery is visible in recent years (Fig. 10).
Future depends on domestic consumption, which will not elevate if the state or dairy
industry does not finance educational campaigns.
The available data reflect the change in consumer habits. Since 2000 we have increased yoghurt consumption by 37%. Marketing and wider, tasty assortment as well as
recommendation from food scientists made us eat and drink more fermented products
(Fig. 11).
Butter production got through the same process as milk production with one heavier
storm in the 90’s, when margarine lobby profited from information about harmful action
of butter fat on blood tension (Seremak-Bulge et al. 2003). Now the production grows
slowly as country demand rises (Fig. 12).
118
%
70
63
60
59
55
50
50
61
59
58
59
55
54
55
49
40
30
20
10
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 8. Farm gate price in retail price of 2% fat milk (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 8. Udział ceny skupu w cenie detalicznej mleka o zawartości tłuszczu 2% (na podstawie
danych GUS)
mld l
6
5
1989; 5.1
4
3
1.9
2
1
0
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 9. Production of milk (normalized and defatted) (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 9. Produkcja mleka (spożywcze i odtłuszczone) (na podstawie danych GUS)
119
M. l
mln l
500
1984; 433
400
1989; 335
300
2003; 215
200
1992; 159
100
0
1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Years – Lata
Fig. 10. Production of cream including homogenized cream (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 10. Produkcja śmietany i śmietanki (na podstawie danych GUS)
300
M. l
mln l
250
200
225
213
241
176
150
100
50
0
2000
2002
2001
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 11. Production of yoghurt (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 11. Produkcja jogurtu (na podstawie danych GUS)
From 1988 to 1992 there was a decrease in cheese production which resulted from
lower household incomes and initial lack of trade partners. From 1993 the industry
enjoys growing production as an effect of rising popularity, affluence and open markets
– EU and Russia. The highest growth is observed in hard cheeses (“industrial types”),
which are eagerly used in food service (Fig. 13).
120
t
350 000
300 000
1989; 290 202
250 000
200 000
167 036
150 000
1994; 119 787
100 000
50 000
0
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 12. Production of butter (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 12. Produkcja masła (na podstawie danych GUS)
t
600 000
2003; 548 159
500 000
1988; 470 819
400 000
300 000
312 825
200 000
134 782
100 000
0
1992; 283 317
164 777
286 461
195 165
101 979
61 917
23 212
16 561
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Years – Lata
cheeses – sery
hard cheese – ser żółty
fresh cheese – twaróg
processed cheese and others – sery topione i inne
Fig. 13. Production of cheese (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 13. Produkcja sera (na podstawie danych GUS)
Strong exporting position resulted in growing production of concentrated milk and
whey – trend seems to be long lasting (Fig. 14).
Production strongly depends on export profitability, bloomed till 1989, later had to
adapt to open market (Fig. 15).
121
t
25 000
1999; 21 507
1989; 21 413
1979; 20 705
20 000
15 000
1993; 12 615
1982; 12 346
10 000
5 000
0
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Years – Lata
Fig. 14. Production of milk and concentrated whey (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 14. Produkcja zagęszczonego mleka i serwatki (na podstawie danych GUS)
t
300 000
250 000
1989; 238 195
200 000
1998; 186 018
175 453
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 15. Production of milk and cream powder (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 15. Produkcja mleka i śmietany w postaci stałej (na podstawie danych GUS)
Decrease of subsidies to this good resulted in miserable competitiveness of Polish
casein (Richarts 2003) on world market (Fig. 16).
122
t
70 000
60 000
50 000
1990; 38 224
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2003; 3 434
1994; 2 985
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 16. Production of casein (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 16. Produkcja kazeiny (na podstawie danych GUS)
Consumption
Milk loses to competitive drinks with heavy marketing behind (Fig. 17).
Reduction in fats consumption and artificial and plant substitutes limit cream consumption. Annual consumption of cream amounts to 5 kg per person (Fig. 18).
100
l
91
88
80
84
82
79
76
73
69
60
65
63
62
40
20
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 17. Consumption of milk drinks per one person (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 17. Konsumpcja napojów mlecznych na osobę (na podstawie danych GUS)
123
kg
8
7.1
6.7
6
6.4
6.1
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.0
4
2
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 18. Consumption of cream per one person (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 18. Konsumpcja śmietany na osobę (na podstawie danych GUS)
Drop in the beginning of 90’s caused by price factors and plant substitutes supported
by information campaigns was stopped by growing popularity and fashion for butter,
now associated with tasty, healthy diet when in reasonable quantities (Fig. 19).
kg
6
5.4
5
4.3
4
3.4
3
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
2
1
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 19. Consumption of butter per one person (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 19. Konsumpcja masła na osobę (na podstawie danych GUS)
After decline caused by dietary precautions and high price in the beginning of 90’s
consumption of cheeses started to grow till 1998. Later crisis in economy affected the
consumption. Households started buying and eating more cheeses again in 2003 (Fig. 20).
124
kg
10.5
10.0
10.3
10.0
10.0
9.6
9.5
10.3
10.3
10.0
cheeses – sery
trend
9.0
1993
1994
10.1
9.6
9.2
8.5
10.1
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Years – Lata
Fig. 20. Consumption of cheese per one person (based on data from CSO)
Ryc. 20. Konsumpcja sera na osobę (na podstawie danych GUS)
Conclusions
1. Decease of dairy farm numbers and overall farm numbers – low profitability if no
economies to scale.
2. Structural changes in milk production sector are caused by fast growth of large
herds and farms which own one cow for a their use.
3. In 2003 there is still a decline in cow stock but increase of milk yield per cow altered decreasing trend in milk production.
4. Steady increase of collected milk ratio connected with attractive prices and production specialization.
5. Production of basic dairy fresh products for local markets declined from 1989 to
2002 with serious collapse in 1999 and 2000 as a result of economic crisis. In latest
years opening of foreign markets: EU (Richarts 2004) and Eastern countries and rising
dietary conscience of Poles can elevate production but only up to the quota granted by
EU.
6. More stable products are slightly affected by changes in domestic demand, but
more sensitive to cyclical factors on world market, what is mirrored by temporary fluctuation.
7. Cheese production grows from 1992 thanks to domestic demand and export.
8. Drop in milk drinks (mainly milk) and cream consumption is caused by change of
consumption habits and competition from other drinks and plant substitutes.
9. In 2000 a remarkable decline in cheese and butter consumption resulted from incomes reduction. Consumption and growing acceptance for cheeses and butter bounces
back in recent years.
125
Literature
Jażdżewski K. (2001): Praktyczne zastosowanie wymagań Unii Europejskiej i Polski w sektorze
mleczarskim. Związek Prywatnych Przetwórców Mleka, Warszawa.
Richarts E. (2003): Bull. Int. Dairy Fed. 384.
Richarts E. (2004): ZMP-Marktbilanz Milch 2004. Deutschland. Europäische Union. Weltmarkt.
ZMP Zentrale Markt- und Preisberichtstelle, Bonn.
Roczniki statystyczne rolnictwa 1949-2003. (1950-2004). GUS, Warszawa.
Seremak-Bulge J., Gronowicz M., Jażdżewski K., Świetlik K., Szajner P., Nitecka E. (2003):
Polskie mleczarstwo. Raport o stanie branży i perspektywach jej rozwoju w poszerzonej Unii
Europejskiej. Związek Prywatnych Przetwórców Mleka, Warszawa.
Sznajder M. (1999): Ekonomika mleczarstwa. Wyd. AR, Poznań.
Sznajder M., Senauer B., Asp E., Kinsey J. (1998): Zmieniający się konsument żywności.
Horyzont, Poznań.
Szymańska A. (2005): Rolnik uśredniony – hodowla bydła i produkcja mleka a rozwój obszarów
wiejskich. Roln. Dzierż. 5: 38-39.
TENDENCJE W POLSKIM MLECZARSTWIE
Streszczenie
Polskie mleczarstwo jako ważna cześć gospodarki żywnościowej jest sektorem, wewnątrz
którego w ostatnich latach dokonały się bardzo istotne zmiany. Zaobserwowane tendencje mają
charakter długookresowy i będą w najbliższym czasie kształtować oblicze branży. Podstawowymi
tendencjami po stronie gospodarstw zajmujących się produkcją mleka są: koncentracja produkcji
surowca, wzrastająca wydajność i towarowość. Z kolei w przetwórstwie w latach 1989-2002
obserwowaliśmy tendencję spadkową w większości kategorii i wzrost produkcji od 2003 roku.
Jednakże konsumpcja produktów mlecznych wyrażona w ekwiwalencie mleka spada od 1989
roku (z wyjątkiem 1998 roku) i w 2003 roku osiągnęła rekordowo niski poziom 181 l na osobę.

REVIEW OF DAIRY SECTOR IN POLAND Introduction

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