Changes in Population Structure as a Global Problem

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Rączaszek, A. (2003) Changes in Population Structure as a Global Problem.
In: M. Gajos, U. Myga - Piątek (ed.). Geographical Information Systems. Interdisciplinary Aspects.
University of Silesia - GIS Forum – SILGIS Association, Sosnowiec – Zagreb, 483-490.
Geographical Information Systems - Interdisciplinary Aspects
University of Silesia - GIS Forum - SILGIS Association, Sosnowiec - Zagreb 2003
Andrzej Rączaszek
Univesity of Economics in Katowice, Poland
The history of homo sapiens on earth lasts a few thousands years already.
The rate of changes in the amount of the globe’s habitants had been growing
slowly through past centuries but the most important changes in disposition of
population and basic demographic indexes are observed during XX century.
For the size of population, and partially also for the process of human
reproduction, basic significance lies in the average length of life. Already, in XVIII
century we could observe activities set for providing for basic social needs. The
origins of insurance system were constructed at the end of XIX century, however it
embraced small part of the population only, because the average life-length in most
European countries, at least at the beginning of XIX century, didn’t exceed over 35
years of age1 (Table 1).
If we consider the facts above together, we’ll come to a conclusion that
during the endless existence of humans on Earth two main demographic factors
determined its evolution: high death-rate, including babies2, and short average of
life expectancy3. Although these tendencies have changed a lot, thanks to the
achievements of today’s civilisation, there are still huge differences in this sphere
between many countries with different level of development4. Table 1 confirms the
well-known fact that average length of life has prolonged in XX century, in some
countries even by 100%. First substantial increase in the average life-length was
noticed already in 20. and 30. In better-developed countries, it was caused by
progress in medicine, mainly by introducing antibiotics and by improvement in
sanitary conditions in health service. Worth to consider, until World War the
Second, only one number was given for the average human life-length, while after
1
Outstanding french demographer J.M.Poursin define the average life expectation of 35
years as „close to traditional demographic system”. J.M.Poursin, La population mondiale.
(Ludność świata). PWN, Warszawa 1976, s. 147.
2
The average level of infant mortality in past ages is estimated at 250-300‰, however
from 1805 to 1820 in western european countries it was still 185 ‰. R. Pressat, L’analyse
démographique. (Analiza demograficzna). PWN, Warszawa 1966, s. 112.
3
In the second half of XVIII century in France the average life expectation was 28,8 years,
while in India between 1891 and 1901 the average life expectation was estamated 23,8
years. R. Pressat, L’analyse..., op. cit. s. 160.
4
In the 60. the average life expectation in well-developed countries was estimated between
65 and 75 years, while in developing countries – between 45 and 60. J. M. Poursin, La
population..., op. cit., s. 16.
483
Andrzej Rączaszek
Table 1 Length of life in chosen countries at the end of XIX and beginning of the
XX century
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
country years e.o.l..
2
3
4
Austria 1870- 32,4
80
Germany 1871- 37,0
81
France 1877- 42,1
81
England 1871- 43,0
80
Sweden 1871- 47,0
80
Russia 1896- 32,3
97
Japan
.
.
9
Poland
a
USSR
.
.
years
5
19061910
19101911
19081913
19101912
19111915
19261927
19261930
1927
e.o.l. years e.o.l. years
e.o.l.
years e.o.l.
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
41,7
1966 67,9/73,5 2000 75,4/81,2
.
.
49,1 193234
50,4 192833
53,4 193032
57,9 193135
a
.
44,4
45,7
.
61,3 1964- 67,6/73,5 1998 74,5/80,5
65
56,7 1965 67,8/75,0 1999 74,5/82,3
60,8 196365
64,3 196165
. 196566
1966
.
68,1/74,2 1998- 75,1/80,0
2000
71,6/75,7 1999 77,1/81,9
a 66,0/74 1999 59,9/72,4
68,4/73,6 1999 77,1/84,0
45,9 1931- 49,8 1965- 66,8/72,8 2001 70,2/78,4
32
66
Sources: Roczniki Statystyczne GUS
e.o.l. = expectation of life
the war we usually have two numbers: one for men and another for women, and
that’s because a great difference in those numbers was noticed (Table 2).
The level of babies’ death-rate factor is in social studies usually treated as a
measure of the general level of civilisation’ development, at least as a good reflex
of sanitary conditions5. For sure it used to be like that when this measure was 2-3%
or more, earlier6. Now, when in the most developed countries this measure doesn’t
exceed over 10‰ it’s value, as a cognitive factor is considered much less precise7.
Table 2 shows changes in the level of babies’ death-rate factor from before World
War 2. The level of the best of those days’ known factors is equal to today’s worst
ones. This shows the progress that has been achieved during last 60 years.
Obviously, this conclusion applies only to countries for which we know the value
of this particular factor. We can assume that for many 3rd World countries this
factor’s level (from 20) is still hard to achieve.
5
R. Pressat, L’analyse..., op. cit. s. 114.
See: J.Z.Holzer, Demografia. (Demography). PWE, Warszawa 1994.
7
E. Rosset, Trwanie życia ludzkiego. (Expectation of life). PAN, Ossolineum, Wrocław,
Warszawa, Kraków, Gdańsk 1979, s. 79.
484
6
Table 2 Infant mortality
No
country
1
2
2 USA
3 Germany
193539
3
53,2
66,3
4 Netherland
s
5 Canada
37,4
6 Japan
7 Hungary
110,4
133,5
67,3
8 United
58,5
Kingdom
9 UDSS/Rus 184,0
sia
10 Poland
139,2
1958
1969
1980
1990
2000
4
5
6
7
8
27
20,8
12,6
9,2
a 7,2
Mexico
65,7
40,3
34,0
a 15,8
81
Uruguay Romania Turkey 92,1 Turkey 58
Algeria a
73
54,9
53,3
Colombia Jugoslavia
South
India 80,0 India b 71,0
100
56,3
Africa 83,3
35
15,3
7,5
4,6
3,2
China 100 Netherlands China 39,3
47,0
41,0
13,1
23
18,6
12,2
7,9
5,6
41
25,8
22,1
17,4
15,5
.
34,4
25,5
19,3
8,1
a 1998
b 1997
Sources: Roczniki Statystyczne GUS; R. Pressat, Analiza demograficzna. PWN,
Warszawa 1966
The average life-length, the highest now in countries providing the highest
income per capita, could also be a measure of civilisation development. Therefore
those two population variables are base of universal studies and, at the turningpoint of XX and XXI century, we can show that XX century has caused changes
that were never observed before in this sphere. It is then a positive fact, showing
that whole mankind, more or less, uses benefits of progress and development.
Infant mortality decreases while expectation of life grows. Those changes can be
considered profitable for individual lives, because number of those who now can
avoid decease as children grows, and better living conditions allow their life-length
to exceed8.
These positive effects of demographic changes in XX century are not the
only ones observed. Changes in the structure of population, mentioned in the title
of this article, can have, as shown, quality value but also quantitative value. If we
8
See: E. Rosset, Trwanie życia..., op. cit.
485
Andrzej Rączaszek
noticed before that, despite the visible progress, there still are great differences in
population measures in countries with different levels of development, we can also
see the consequences of this situation. This caused a huge change in spatial
disposition of world’s population. As the rate of demographic and economic
development of many countries differs, also the present list of the most powerful
ones changed. This comparison shows which countries caused, in XX century,
greatest effect on the development and changes of today’s world (Table 3).
Table 3. The greatest powers of the world - by population in millions
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
country
2
China
Russia
USA
Germany
Austria-Hungary
Japan
England
France
Italy
Turkey
1800
1850
1900
3
4
5
440
.
.
39
61 132
5
23 72
25
36 56
45
.
.
44
.
.
11
21 41
28
36 40
18
24 33
25-30
.
.
country
6
China
India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
2001
7
1285
1025
285
215
173
146
145
140
127
117
Although the data for the XIX century shown in the table above are not
complete, these are all known for the author. But there’s a possibility of comparing
first 10 countries in the world by population at the beginning of XX and XXI
century. Those lists, as shown above, differ quite a lot9. At the beginning of the XX
century there were 6 European countries, excluding Turkey, in the “greatest 10”.
Nowadays of European countries only Russia still hangs on to this list. Other
European countries were replaced by ones from 3 other continents, even Third
World countries. This shows how population’s geography changes. And this aspect
I consider as the most significant here, as it shows the global nature of
demographic changes (Table 4).
The comparison above shows the rate of increase of population in countries
which reached over 100 millions people by the end of 2001. GUS Statistic
Yearbooks, also those printed before World War the Second, allow showing data
about the population of the greatest countries in the world starting from XIX
century. The table 4 shows as well concequences of worlds’ political situation.
9
See: E. Rosset, Eksplozja demograficzna. (Demographic explosion). KiW, Warszawa
1978.
486
Table 4. Changes in population of the biggest countries in the world
No country
1
2
2 China
3 India
4 USA
5 Russia
6 Japan
7 Pakistan
8 Indonesia
9 Bangladesh
10 Nigeria
11 Brasil
12 Mexico
1800 1850 1900 1933 1940 1950
3
4
5
6
7
8
440 419,0
h 546,8
.
.
414,7
206 .
a
a h 358,3
.
363,1 374,2
5
23
72 126,1
j 152,3
130,2
39
61 132
i
ih
c
168,0 175,5 113,2
33
44 67,5 j 72,1 82,9
.
a
a f 75,0
.
.
.
b
h 76,7
.
.
.
63,3 66,3
a
a .
.
.
.
19,4
h
c
.
.
.
19,4 31,8
3 .
17 44,9
h 51,9
42,4
17,6
h 25,8
.
.
.
19,0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2001
9
10
11
12
13
646,6 773,7 996 1155, 1285,
3
0
429,0 539,9 689 834,7 1025,
1
180,7 204,9 228 249,9 285,9
g
117,5
93,2
42,4
94,2
e 139 147,9
130,7
103,5 117 123,5
53,5 85,3 112,0
122,1 152 180,6
145,6
127,3
145,0
214,8
50,3 60,7 88,2 108,1 140,4
d 66,2 80,6 96,2 116,9
55,7
69,7 93,4 121 148,5 172,6
36,0 49,1 69,7 86,2 100,4
a British India, Rocznik
Statystyczny 1936
b Netherlands India, as
above
c 1956
d 1963
e
f
g
h
i
j
1971
Pakistan East and West
1959
1936
USRR
1938
Among the independent countries for a long time we wouldn’t find India of
Nigeria, and independent Pakistan or Bangladesh appears in there even later. It’s
worth though, despite past historical and political events, to observe the dynamics
of changes in population there. In 1800 USA and Brazil were not yet significant
487
Andrzej Rączaszek
countries by the population. However, that was still the colonial period, preceding
great migrations. But it’s possible to compare the situation in particular countries in
1900 and 2001. During this time the population of Brazil had grown 10 times,
USA’s population – 4 times, China’s and Japan’s – 3 times, while Russia’s by 10%
only. The comparison between year 1950 and year 2001 would give similar results.
The population of India, Indonesia or Bangladesh had tripled during this time. The
population of Mexico or Nigeria had grown even 4 times. At the same period
USA’s population increased by a little less than 100%, while Russia’s only by not
even 30%. In any comparison of the population increase dynamics, the Third
World countries dominate (Table 5).
Table 5. Population in millions by continents from the beginning of XX century
year
1900 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001
World
Europe
Africa
North America
South America
Asia
Oceania
1608
401
120
101
43
937
6
1860
479
143
145
60
1024
9
2070
535
164
168
74
1119
10
2295
576
191
185
89
1243
11
2522
547
221
226
113
1373
13
3022
605
277
274
148
1702
16
3696
656
357
324
193
2147
19
4440
693
467
374
242
2641
23
5266
722
615
427
295
3181
26
6055
729
784
482
346
3684
30
6134
726
813
493
351
3720
31
Sources: E. Rosset, Eksplozja demograficzna. KiW, Warszawa 1978;
Roczniki Statystyczne GUS
As the effect, as presented in the 5th table, during XX century the population
of the world had exceeded almost 4 times, however not equally. The smallest
growth is observed in European population – by a little over 80%. 4 times increase
of population occurs in Asia; 5 times growth appears in North America and
Oceania. Even greater increase was observed in the remaining continents, coming
to 800 % in South America. Therefore, we can notice that the population of some
countries has grown much faster than other ones (Table 6).
Table 6 shows the consequences of those distinctive changes in particular
continents. If we consider world’s population as 100% then in 1900 Europe
occupied ¼, while Asia 60% of it. Africa was then by population almost 3 times
smaller than Europe. Today’s participation of Asia in world’s population is almost
similar, a little over 60%, while Europe’s “share” reduced to not even 12%. That
means Europe’s participation had decreased by half over XX century It’s not only a
result of European’s pride that caused 2 world wars, but also a result of changes in
mentality, value system, and, what follows, generation’s exchange rate.
Apart from reasons from those changes, we have nowadays totally different
geography of world’s population. At the cost of Europe and North America’s poor
488
population growth, the share of Africa and South America in world’s population
increased considerably. A little growth was also noticed in Asia’s participation.
Table 6. Population in percents by continents from the beginning of XX century
year
1900 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001
World
Europe
Africa
North America
South America
Asia
Oceania
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
24,9 25,5 25,8 25,1 21,7
20 17,7 15,6 13,7 12,0 11,8
7,5 7,7 7,9 8,3 8,8 9,2 9,7 10,5 11,7 12,9 13,3
6,3 7,8 8,1 8,1 9,0 9,1 8,8 8,4 8,1 8,0 8,0
2,7 3,2 3,6 3,9 4,5 4,9 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,7
58,2 55,1 54,1 54,1 55,5 56,3 58,1 59,6 60,4 60,9 60,7
0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5
Sources: as above
Well-developed countries produce most worlds’ national income.
Simplifying a little, we can include here countries placed in Europe, North America
and Oceania. Over XX century their share in worlds’ population had decreased
from 30 to 20%. It’s not a profitable change, considering producing income that
enables worlds’ progress. But it is, as shown, a global problem and therefore the
author of this article wouldn’t venture to form conclusions other than presented.
Bibliography
1. Poursin J.M., 1976: Ludność świata. (La population mondiale). PWN,
Warszawa.
2. Pressat R, 1966: Analiza demograficzna. (L’analyse démographique). PWN,
Warszawa.
3. Rosset E., 1979: Trwanie życia ludzkiego. (Expectation of life). PAN,
Ossolineum, Wrocław, Warszawa, Kraków, Gdańsk.
4. Rosset E., 1978: Eksplozja demograficzna. (Demographic explosion).KiW,
Warszawa.
5. Holzer J.Z., 1994: Demografia. (Demography). PWE, Warszawa.
6. Statistical Yearbook, GUS, Warszawa.
7. Demographical Yearbook, GUS, Warszawa.
489
Andrzej Rączaszek
Andrzej Rączaszek
Uniwesity of Economics in Katowice, Poland
Changes in Population Structure
as a Global Problem
S u m m a r y
During XX century we experienced changes on Earth that present global
character. This relates to politics, military potential and economic life. Great
changes concern also demographic relations. We have here positive changes-in
quality, such as an extension of average life-length and a drop in babies’ death rate.
But there are also negative consequences caused by quantitative changes, such as a
drop in participation in worlds’ population of those continents that cause the
biggest effect on economic growth, and these are Europe, North America and
Australia.
Keywords: demography, demographic relations, qualitative changes, quantitative
changes, populations structure, percentage share, global problem
Andrzej Rączaszek
Akademia Ekonomiczna w Katowicach, Polska
Zmiany w Strukturze Ludności
jako Problem Globalny
S t r e s z c z e n i e
W XX wieku nastąpiły na kuli ziemskiej zmiany, które mają charakter
globalny. Dotyczy to polityki, potencjałów militarnych i życia gospodarczego.
Daleko idące zmiany dotyczą także stosunków demograficznych. Można tu
zauważyć zmiany jakościowe, pozytywne dla ludzkości, takie jak wydłużanie się
przeciętnego trwania życia czy spadek umieralności niemowląt. Negatywne
konsekwencje będą miały natomiast globalne zmiany ilościowe, w tym głównie
spadek udziału w liczbie ludności świata mieszkańców tych kontynentów, które w
największym stopniu przyczyniają się do wzrostu gospodarczego, a więc Europy,
Ameryki Północnej i Australii.
Słowa kluczowe: demografia, stosunki demograficzne, zmiany jakościowe,
zmiany ilościowe, struktura ludności, udział procentowy, problem globalny
490

Changes in Population Structure as a Global Problem

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