Gaz ziemny
Transkrypt
Gaz ziemny
Gaz ziemny. Wielkość i rozmieszczenie zasobów, rynki energii, bezpieczeństwo energetyczne, międzynarodowe uwarunkowania wydobycia, transportu i sprzedaży gazu ziemnego. Przygotował: Mateusz Słupiński, dr inż. 1 Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, theSlovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, theUnited Kingdom and the United States. 2 Wprowadzenie - Zużycie energii Gaz ziemny 3 Saturday, March 23, 2013 4 5 ! !"#$%&'()(*(+,-./00(1.-234! Figure 2.1 !! !"#$%&'!()!*+(,$+!-./$+!0/&%12!3(/'4567.(/!$/8!39:!05.''.(/' ,2!"&;7(%<!:==> Other 4% Other 3% Transport 26% !"! Manufacturing 33% Services 9% Transport 25% Manufacturing 38% 2 Services 12% Households 29% Total final energy consumption: 285 EJ Households 21% Total direct and indirect CO2 emissions: 21 Gt CO2 Sources: IEA, 2007c; IEA, 2007d; IEA, 2007e. Note: Other includes construction and agriculture/fishing. Figure 2.2 !! !?(7$+!-./$+!0/&%12!3(/'4567.(/!,2!"&;7(% 70 6 60 Saturday, March 23, 2013 50 7 8 9 Saturday, March 23, 2013 10 11 12 Saturday, March 23, 2013 Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Regional demand & supply balance to 2015 37 REGIONAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE TO 2015 Gaz ziemny Wydobycie, rynki, transport This section highlights regional supply and demand balances for the years to 2015, based on data and analysis published in November 2007 in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2007. Price assumptions in that analysis were centred on oil prices at USD 60, with gas priced at around USD 7-8 per MBtu and coal at USD 60 per tonne, reflecting the market outlook at the time the analysis commenced. Analysis for this year’s World Energy Outlook will be conducted with significantly higher price assumptions, more reflective of current energy prices as of May 2008, of USD 130 oil, gas at USD 10-12 per MBtu, and coal over USD 150 per tonne in some markets. This is likely to lead to differing projections, both in overall energy use and gas. The 2008 World Energy Outlook will be available in early November 2008. World primary energy demand in the WEO 2007 Reference Scenario is projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, an average annual rate of 1.8%. Demand reaches 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, compared with 11.4 billion toe in 2005. The pace of demand growth slows progressively over the projection period, from 2.3% per year in 2005-2015 to 1.4% per year in 2015-2030. Demand grew by 1.8% per year over 1980-2005. Global demand for natural gas grows by 2.6% per year from 2 854 bcm in 2005 to 3 689 bcm in 2015. As with oil, gas demand increases quickest in developing countries. The biggest regional increase in absolute terms occurs in the Middle East, where gas resources are extensive and prices low. North America and Europe nonetheless remain the leading gas consumers in 13 Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Regional demand & supply balance to 2015 '()*+,4)567)8,97:;)7*,<7=,+>679+,?@A6B !""" !""# !"$# !""#%!"$#& %&'() %&'*+ %&,-* %.,(/ &01234&567289: ,)) ,*+ ;;, %.+(/ &"<21=7 ',, ++( *>) %.+(/ &?:98@89 %>> %') -(% >.((/ !"#$ A2:BC8381B&791B1687C *(%of world 2015, accounting for around 40% &D<CC8: consumption, compared with >)+ just under half today. $7E7F1=8BG&91<B3287C +-; 0B: -; New using &HBI8: power stations, mostly -+ combined-cycle gas turbine technology, &!3472&5C8: %>% are projected to absorb over half &J8IIF7&":C3 %;- of the increase in gas demand over the*projection &5@289: period. In many parts of the %(( world, gas &K:38B&567289: remains the preferred generating fuel for '()*+ !,#-. economic and environmental reasons. Gas"<21=7:B&LB81B ';fired generating plants are very efficient at M5E72:G7&:BB<:F&2:37&1@&G21N34. converting primary energy into electricity O1<297P&H"5&Q"!&-((,R&D7@727B97&O97B:281. and are cheap to build, compared with coalbased and nuclear power technologies. Gas is also favoured over coal and oil for its lower emissions, especially of carbon dioxide. However, the choice of fuel and technology for new power plants will hinge on the price of gas relative to other generating options. !"#$%&' **> Worldwide gas,;) resources are%.;(/ more than '>% +%* projected %.;(/ sufficient to meet demand to 2015 and beyond course to ,-, %&%,' subject of'.)(/ adequate and %>% timely investment. Gas +% ).)(/ production is projected to increase >+ +; +.-(/ in all major regions except OECD Europe, %,, -*'.((/ where output from the to -*% >)'North Sea is expected '.-(/ decline. North American growth'.;(/ is expected ;+ %>* to slow after 2015. As with demand, the %%; %)> +.((/ Middle East sees the biggest increase in !,/#0 -,1/. !21"3 production in the period to 2015. Output +'% *-% %.'(/ also increases markedly in Africa and Latin America. Natural gas supplies will continue to come mainly from conventional sources, though coalbed methane and other nonconventional supplies are expected to play a growing role in some regions, notably North America. As with oil, projected gasproduction trends generally reflect the relative size of reserves. However, unlike oil, transporting gas over long distances is ©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© OECD/IEA, 2008 M3F508H5&8CC=8G&0815&/A&H0/N12+ 15 Saturday, March 23, 2013 bcm to 350 bcm in 2015. North America, which only recently started importing LNG bcm !"#$%&'(( regional LNG supplier, as well as an LNG supplier to China. !"#$%&'$%&'()**+,'-).+--/'0-1'234!'1"56-%('.-'789: 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2005 2015 2005 OECD Europe 2015 2005 OECD North America Regional production 2015 OECD Pacific LNG imports Pipeline imports !"#$%&'()*+(,*-(.//01(2&3&$&4%&(!%&45$6"7 16 40 Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Regional demand & supply balance to 2015 !"#$%&' '()*+,+*-./(012.34/+)25*4*(5*(6*2782309/+2+*-./( !"#$ %$$$ %$$& %$!& !"#$ %&'() *(&+() *,&-() '.) /01234/567289: .&,() '&%() *&+() %) /";21<7 .%&.() '=&'() ,*&>() -,) /?:98@89 =-&>() =%&,() =>&%() ->) #48A: (&(() *.) BAC8: .>&.() **) D1;297E/B"5/F"!/*((>G/H7@727A97/D97A:281& © OECD/IEA, 2008 17 18 Saturday, March 23, 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2008 0 19 Rynki regionalne - gaz ziemny U.S.A. 20 Zasoby gazu i główne rejony użytkowania 21 Saturday, March 23, 2013 !"#$%&'()*+,(-./0&1(!020&3(4&52$06&.0("7().&$89: *+,'( -(.#*)'/#%#*05'"%,%".#1'*+,%(0.2('%()',2#*(#.%&'62##&*(*"70' Km 0 200 400 CANADA Central Pacific 5 Midwest Western 6 1 Ocean 1 Northeast UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Supply bottleneck Demand bottleneck Southeast 4 1 REX pipeline 2 Carthage to Perryville pipeline Southwest 3 2 3 Enterprise Sherman extension Ocean 4 Gulf Crossing pipeline 5 NE-07 project Atlantic MEXICO 6 Dawn-Trafalgar system !"#$%&'(*)+(2.2;93/3: <"0&'(=>&(3/?(-./0&1(!020&3@($&8/".3(3>"A.(/.(0>/3(7/8#$&(2$&(B23&1(#5".(0>&($&8/".3(#3&1(B9(0>&(C77/%&("7(C/;(2.1(D23("7(0>&()*+: 22 OECD countries and regions Rynki regionalne - gaz ziemny EU ted ing ant any the 996, ted 000, idly hat hat the een put t to g in und ere 6% gas consumption. Main import sources for gas supplies to Europe are Russia (24% of consumption), Norway (15%) both by pipeline and Algeria (11%), by both pipeline and LNG. LNG imports were about 13% of total gas needs, with the major suppliers being Algeria, Libya, Qatar, and Nigeria. !"#$%&'() 23 !"#$%&#'()*+,&#-.//01 Other 8% Qatar 2% Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan 1% Norway 21% Egypt 2% Russia 41% Nigeria 4% Algeria 18% Libya 2% Trinidad and Tobago 1% !"#$%&'()*+ Saturday, March 23, 2013 24 © OECD/IEA, 2008 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. growing role in meeting EU energy needs, and for a growing relationship with the is possible that achieving the EU’s March 2007 energy policy commitments could Mtoe !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()&*+,-.)/&-0&'1)2.13&41/ 80 Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Investment in new supply projects 70 60 55 50 40 30 20 Trans-Caspian issues break of seven years, and Turkmenistan announced in spring 2008 a decision to re0 A summit meeting of Caspian leaders open an Embassy in Azerbaijan. The most BEL ESP FRA ITA DEU EST SWE SVN LUX LVA LTU BGR GRC IRL PRT FIN ROU SVK AUT CZE POL HUN DNKOctober 2007 showed little in Tehran in visible sign of the warming of relations was -10 GBR sign of consensus on issues of oil and gas the visit of President Berdymukhammedov -20 transportation or on the legal status of to Baku in May 2008. NLD the -30 Caspian Sea. Instead, the development 1990 2000 Turkmenistan 2006 The relationship between with most potential implications for transand Azerbaijan is a pivotal one for the Caspian energy trade was the improvement prospects of trans-Caspian gas trade, in relations between Turkmenistan and !"#$%&'()#$"*+,+whether this is in the form of Turkmen Azerbaijan. offshore gas being landed in Azerbaijan, After President Berdymukhammedov came trans-Caspian gas shipments (possibly to power in Turkmenistan in February 2007, as CNG) or, in the medium-term, a fully formal inter-governmental contacts were fledged trans-Caspian pipeline feeding resumed in the autumn of 2007 after a into the Azerbaijan gas pipeline !"#$%&'(")*+,-.,,)*(/$$01*2%$%2'-',(*')*3445*%)6*3478 9"&*:;<*;/&"$,*%)6*),.*;=*#,#+,&*(-%-,( Used capacity cm 113 bcm Existing LNG terminal Russia Finland 7b Projected capacity bcm Norway to OECD Europe Norway Existing capacity 86 !"#$% Russia to OECD Europe and Balkans Sweden Atlantic LNG Ireland 46 b cm U 27 sed: bcm 151 25 Denmark UK Estonia Latvia Russia Lithuania 3 22 6 15 The Neth. Belarus Belg. Germany Poland Lux. Czech Rep. Slovakia France Switz. Ukraine Austria Mold. Slov. Hungary Croatia Romania Bos. & Italy Herz. Serbia bcm Portugal Mediterranean LNG Morocco Algeria Tunisia North Africa Greece pipeline to OECD Europe m bc b 85 cm Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Russia Bulgaria Alb. FYROM 32 b cm 58 b cm U 29 sbed: 19 b cm cm 42 b 51 b cm cm Spain m bc Georgia Turkey Syria Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Investment in new supply projects Azer. Arm. 52 bcm Iran Turkmenistan 18 bcm Used: 6 bcm Iraq Iran The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. 58 !"#$%&'()*+,(-)*,(%"./012(314"$.053"16 7"5&'(7"$802(39(%"193:&$&:(;&$&(09(0(9#//<3&$(5"(*#$"/&6 !"#$% © OECD/IEA, 2008 26 !"#$%&'"$()#((#*$%+'*,-.&(%#$%/0'"(#"%&*%1234 Main existing gas pipeline Planned/proposed gas pipeline Production area Existing LNG terminal Planned/proposed terminal AL M TREA I NO RD S TA SKANLED NAB UCC O SOUTHSTREAM GALSI istan e men Turk a pipelin Chin TAP ITGI MEDGAS Caspian Coastal pipeline NABUCCO Arab gas pipeline TransCaspian options TurkmenistanIran pipeline TAP I The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$%&'()*+,(%"-./01(/0"#0%&-&023,(-&45/($&."$236 Saturday, March 23, 2013 27 © OECD/IEA, 2008 10 Nordstream Gazoprojekt 28 29 30 Saturday, March 23, 2013 Gaz ziemny LNG - Liquified Natural Gas 31 LNG - Liquified Natural Gas 32 33 Saturday, March 23, 2013 34 Gazoprojekt 35 Saturday, March 23, 2013 36 ()*>+%?$(%L+?K&+)()#+')+&I#'$+I(D#+H(K)&$'#,4 !&I#$,+O+Q$%L')N+I(K,#,M+EBF+'D"($&#$,M+-')%)H'%*+'),&'&K&'(),M+*(H%*+H(D"%)'#,M+#&H4+B%&'()%*+('*+%)L+N%,+H(D"%)'#,+&I%&+L(+)(&+I%R#+ EBF+#G"($&+H%"%H'&>+')+&I#'$+I(D#+H(K)&$'#,+%$#+')H*KL#L+')+&I',+H%&#N($>4 .(724*52$67(%#28&7&8'#92,()=$%-2&-2(32C7%')2?@@A2&"=2)'D$)92092?@B? Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Liquefied natural gas *&#'("&)2(')2&"=2>&-28(:7&"'$- ?@@A ?@B? ?@@A ?@B? SI#** 5A43 /T48 U#$&%D')%+<:)L()#,'%@ 3A47 3A47 VU 5243 5T43 W%&%$+U#&$(*#KD /T41 T54T VF A4T A4T S()%&$%HI+<.*N#$'%@ /T41 334A XGG()Y(?'* A43 /041 U#&$()%,+<Y%*%>,'%@ /248 /742 Q(&%* the non-OECD market’s T4A 5847 and BBUZ+<B'N#$'%@ 5841 5841However, that ability capacity, particularly to 2009. X)' 743 is growing. T43 S&%&('*[>L$(+<B($P%>@ 54A may not continue 54A willingness to import LNG long-term prices rising \#",(*+]+F%,+B%&K$%* 84T 24A F%^"$(D if more supply emerges _ around742the turn of Z()(H(UI'**'", 840new countries T4/ will A significant number of the decade. To the extent they can, buyers enter LNG markets as buyers and sellers in are likely to resist long-term commitments Y%$%&I() 348 348 the new few years. Details are set at higher prices. As geographically flexible `((L,'L# /4T A47out in Table and uncommitted LNG exporting capacity ZI#R$()20. /4T 743 expands and correspondingly large numbers a)'&C+?HD+"#$+>#%$ Pricing outlook of ships are delivered, the proportion of B(&#C+B(D')%*+EBF+#G"($&+H%"%H'&>+%&+&I#+*'JK#-%H&'()+#)LM+L',&$'?K&#L+%HH($L')N+&(+#JK'&>+I(*L')N,4+/05/+',+HI(,#)+&(+,I(P+&I#+ short-term cargoes will increase from #G"#H&#L+H%"%H'&>+?%,#L+()+&I#+"$(b#H&,+-($+PI'HI+-')%*+')R#,&D#)&+L#H','(),+I%R#+?##)+D%L#4 As demand continues to rise and new levels around 10% early in the decade, to liquefaction plants are more expensive current levels of 20%, towards 30% early to build, and often run over budget next decade. Pricing for those cargoes and schedule, the LNG market looks set seems likely to be increasingly decoupled to remain tight in coming years, not from that of long-term transactions and withstanding the massive increase in increasingly on a global basis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©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` ^^a>M7+.&b&G71.B9+*0&91B*,7+-?&UK+9K&U1B=.&M-&;1?+,+1*-.&,1&71B,+*-=>&?B;;=>&M1,K&,K-&R,=8*,+9&8*.&G89+_+9&7-0+1*&WTF&287E-,?` :1B79-c&<ZR` 38 LNG w Polsce Świnoujście Terminal o przepustowości 2.5 bcm/year (109 m3), projekt zakontraktowany u SNC Lavalin (Kanada) za USD 10.6 milionów. 9 m-cy projektowania, uruchomienie 2012 lub później obecnie ponad 90% gazu z Rosji prawdopodobny dostawca LNG to Algieria i Katar 39 Saturday, March 23, 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2008 !"#$%&') 84 Rynki narodowe - gaz ziemny Polska 40 41 42 Saturday, March 23, 2013 44 Gazoprojekt Gazoprojekt 43 45 Saturday, March 23, 2013 46 47 48 Saturday, March 23, 2013 49 50 Rynki narodowe - gaz ziemny Niemcy Włochy Chiny Indie 51 Saturday, March 23, 2013 !"#$% !"#$%&'(%)'*$+,#-'"&-#.'+,*&-) 0.34 DENMARK Ellund 1.7 Dornum Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • OECD countries and regions 150 1.17 1 Emden Bunde High caloric 1.2 4 Low 1.15 caloric POLAND Amsterdam THE NETHERLANDS 0 00 3 1. 1.25 3.00 Winterswijk GERMANY 1.5 Bocholtz 0 Bonn Competition and liberalisation issues Mallnow 2. Zevenaar Berlin antitrust proceedings against the Italian 1.5 3 1. gas incumbent in relation to the potential 38 exclusion of new entrants in the Italian Prague CZECH market. Eni is Rbeing accused of capacity 3.7 EPUBLIC hoarding and strategic underinvestment on the Italian gas transmission network, intending market foreclosure which 0.7 3 would threaten not only development of 0.4 2 competitionA U but also security of supply STRIA for Italian customers. Deutschneudorf Eynatten Olbernhau BELGIUM LUX. Lux. City Since the beginning of European liberalisation the Italian authorities have undertaken a series of compulsory changes to the structure of the Italian FRANCE gas market in order to ensure fair access to pipelines and effective competition in supply. Notably, these measures included Main gas pipeline Bern LIECH. very precise and progressive Sgas release Import entry point WITZERLAND 0.42 maximum flow rate (million m /h) programs, and ownership and market share Despite several measures aiming to limitations for the!"#$%&'()*+(,$*-+./++/"-(0#$"1&2()*+(3-4$*+5$#%5#$&(0#$"1&2(6%5"7&$(899:2(%".1*-;(/-4"$.*5/"-2(30<(*-*=;+/+> incumbents. However, restrain Eni’s dominant position in the ?"5&'(@*A/.#.(4="B($*5&(*5(0.C&-(&D#*=+(5"5*=(.*A/.#.(4="B($*5&(*5(5E&(&-5$;(./-#+(%*1*%/5/&+(C&+5/-&C(4"$(5E&(?&5E&$=*-C+(*+( 1&$(F(G*-#*$;(899H>( the dominant position of Eni is still an issue Italian market, the incumbent operator for the regulatory authorities and in 2007 sells nearly half of all end-user gas. In the the European Commission commenced midstream sector of the market, Snam Waidhaus Oberkappel Burghausen 0 Miles 100 3 0 Km 100 © OECD/IEA, 2008 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$% 52 !"#$%&'()*$+"'"+%*,$')(-.+*#$%/$0*"1, Existing supply capacity (pipeline and LNG): 101 TAG pipeline Russia TENP pipeline Netherlands-Norway Under development: 98 - 113 36 21 Under construction: 19.75 Possible import capacity: >230 bcm/y Monfalcone - 8 Zaule - 8 Rovigo - 8 Panigaglia expansion, under dev. - 4.5 Panigaglia - 3.5 Le Marche - 5-10 Livorno - 3.75 Rosignano - 8 Brindisi - 8 Taranto 8 10-20 8 TAP ITGI pipeline 8 Gioia Tauro - 12 GALSI pipeline 32 Transmed Algeria Priolo - 8 8 Porto Empedocle 8 Greenstream Libya + 3 LNG terminal The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Non-OECD countries and producing regions !"#$%&'()*+,(-./.01$2("3()/4#01$2,(%"567/2(0"#$%&08 53 !"#$% © OECD/IEA, 2008 182 9"1&'(7::(/#5;&$0(&<6$&00&4(./(;%58 !"#$%&$%'()%*&+%,&#$-)%,')(.'()/ RUSSIA RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN MONGOLIA West to East pipeline Beijing N. KOREA TAJIKISTAN JAPAN KOREA CHINA Shanghai NEPAL BHUTAN Fujian INDIA 0 Miles 0 Km 400 600 Gas pipeline BANG. Gas pipeline planned MYANMAR Guangdong LAOS LNG terminal LNG terminal planned The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$%&'()&*$"+&#,(-%".",/0*(1.2(3-45 54 Saturday, Marchconditions, 23, 2013 under current market but government policy aimed at diversifying Additional LNG infrastructure is being build to meet the immediate shortfall !"#$% !"#$%"&'%(&$")*%(+*,-+,*. Amritsar CHINA IRAN PAKISTAN Delhi New Delhi NEPAL BHUTAN Jaipur Patna CHINA Bhopal Dahej Jamnagar OMAN BANGLADESH MYANMAR Kolkata I N D I A Hazira Cuttack LAOS Mumbai Kakinada Dabhol Hyderabad THAILAND Chennai Bangaluru 0 Miles 500 0 Km 500 Kochi Gas pipeline SRI LANKA Trivandrum Gas pipeline planned or under const. LNG import terminal LNG import terminal under const. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$%&'()&*$"+&#,(-%".",/0*(1.2(3-45 55 Southeast Asia oil and gas reserves is recurring border disputes i.e. the Brunei and Malaysia Natural Gas Market 2008 • Non-OECD countries claims and producing regions Traditionally, the demand for gas in Review dispute, overlapping areas between Southeast Asia was satisfied by gas Thailand and Cambodia in the Gulf191of producing countries within the region. Thailand, and various countries’ claims Recently, demand for energy has on the Spratly Islands. The exploration accelerated; the challenge will be to ensure and development at these areas could that gas supply meets this increasing be intensified if the affected countries demand, given that the alternative is could resolve these disputes, and allow likely to be oil products. for example joint-sharing of benefits. An LPG and condensate production in 2004, to export, gas is consumed domestically in example of this is the joint development before exporting LNG from Darwin, electricity production, petrochemicals and Indonesia, the biggest LNG exporter in area (JDA) model that was successfully Australia in 2006. other energy intensive industries. Close to the region, is experiencing falling LNG adopted by Malaysia and Thailand for 100% of electricity is gas-fired. production. Other producing countries, Block A-18 in the Gulf of Thailand, which Overall, and despite these obstacles, there such as Malaysia and Brunei, are expected started to produce gas in 2005, following Brunei is intensifying its efforts in the are reasonable prospects for untapped to offer modest prospects of additional a similar example of the Bayu Undan joint exploration and development of new gas resources in Southeast Asia, with new volumes. Issues of resource nationalisation venture project in the Joint Petroleum fields to enable it to extend its contracts players emerging in the region’s gas market also arise regularly within the region. Development Area (JPDA) between East with Japan and South Korea subsequent to like Papua New Guinea and East Timor. Another obstacle to the development of Timor and Australia. That venture started the expiry of the current contacts in 2013. Brunei Darussalam The recent Bubut offshore gas discovery, 15 km from Brunei LNG (BLNG) by Brunei Brunei, which was a pioneer in the Shell Petroleum Company Sdn Bhd, a development of liquefaction plant in joint venture between Shell and Brunei’s Western Pacific, is currently the world’s tenth government, offers hope for possible largest LNG producer; oil and gas exports contract extension beyond 2013. Efforts account for more than half of its GDP. The are also being made in rejuvenating its majority of its gas is exported under long36-year old LNG facility. This project, term contracts; 90% of its LNG goes to which commenced in 2004, is expected to Japan and the remainder is sold under longbe completed in 2010 extending the plant term contract to Korea’s Kogas. In addition life to 60 years. !"#$% © OECD/IEA, 2008 Rynki regionalne - gaz ziemny Azja Południowo-Wschodnia Ameryka Południowa Afryka 56 !"#$%&'($)*(+',)-'()+,./'($/#0$#/& Existing gas pipeline THAILAND VIETNAM Mariveles LNG (Baatan) Bangkok CAMBODIA Map Ta Phut Phnom Penh Ho Chi Minh Manila LNG export plant Planned LNG export plant Planned LNG import terminal PHILIPPINES Palawan Khanom Mindanao Krabi BRUNEI Arun Medan Planned or under construction gas pipeline Gas production area Luzon Yangon Kuala Lumpur SINGAPORE Sumatra Natuna MALAYSIA Dumai Bandar Seri Begawan 500 500 Bintulu MLNG Jurong Isl. Bontang Kalimantan Sungiasalak Senipah Tangguh Plaju West Java 0 Miles 0 Km Lumut Sulawesi Jakarta I N D O Java Surabaya Pasuruan East Java Bali Sumbawa Flores Lombok Seram N Dili E Masela EAST TIMOR Papua S I A PAPUA NEW GUINEA Port Moresby !"#$%&'()&*$"+&#,(-%".",/0*(1.2(3-45 57 Saturday, March 23, 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2008 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$%& !"#$%&'(&)#*&+,&-'-#.&/$+0#$1&%,%$)1&*2//.1&+,&3%,-$#.&#,4&!'2-"&50%$+6#&#,4&7%8+6' Mexico 27% Trinidad 87% Venezuela 39% Colombia 22% Udział gazu w całkowitych dostawach energii Brazil 9% Peru 12% Bolivia 27% Chile 26% Argentina 52% The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. 58 !"#$%&'()*+, Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Non-OECD countries and producing regions With this volume, the region would remain a niche from the perspective of the global LNG market, but South American countries will become more exposed to international price levels. !"#$%% !"#$%&'()*+,-.&/-0&+.1*-0$*#,$#*) pronounced, particularly during hot summers or cold winters. Residential tariffs remain frozen at 2001 prices, thereby creating a strong disincentive to save energy and encouraging rapid demand growth. These artificially low Argentina prices have further hampered investment MEXICO in new(FR.)production capacity and new BELIZE GUADELOUPE GUA.that HONDURAS The gas shortages started in 2004 transmission facilities. While Argentina BARBADOS Gran Mariscal EL SAL. NIC. TOBAGO Caracas TRINIDAD in Argentina are becoming even more pays &USD 7 per MBtu for natural gas from Cartagena Port of Spain Infrastruktura gazowa w Ameryce Południowej COS. RICA PAN. Atlantic LNG VENEZUELA Georgetown Medelin Santander Paramaribo Bogota GUYANA Cayenne Apiay Cali SURINAME FRENCH GUYANA COLOMBIA Quito Shushufindi Pecém Manaus ECUADOR Fortaleza Coari Natal Pucallpa BRAZIL Recife Porto Velho PERU Lima Mataripe Aracaju Salvador Peru LNG BOLIVIA Cuiaba Brasilia La Paz Sao Mateus Ilo Corumba Betim Potosi Vitoria Campos Tocopilla Mejillones PARAGUAY Sao Paulo Rio Guanabara Bay Antofagasta Salta Campos Basin Paposo Asuncion Sao Fransisco do Sul Catamarca Uruguaiana CHILE La Rioja Porto Alegre Cordoba Quintero Rio Grande Valparaiso San Lorenzo URUGUAY Santiago Montevideo La Mora Buenos Aires Conception/Talcahuano Mar del Plata Bahia Blanca Neuquen Viedma ARGENTINA Caleta Cordova Caleta Olivia Gas pipeline Gas pipeline planned or under const. San Julian Gas fields LNG export plant Punta Arenas 0 Miles LNG export plant planned Ushuaia 1 000 0 Km LNG import terminal planned 1 000 !"#$%&'()&*$"+&#,(-%".",/0*(1.2(3-45 Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Non-OECD countries and producing regions © OECD/IEA, 2008 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. !"#$%& © OECD/IEA, 2008 211 213 59 !"#$%&'()&*($'"#&*+#,%+,#Algiers Skikda Arzew Rabat Madeira (Port.) TUNISIA SYRIA Baghdad ELNG Damietta Marsa T1 & T2 LNG el Brega Tripoli Hassi Messaoud MOROCCO IRAQ JORDAN Cairo Canary Isl. (Spain) LIBYA EGYPT ALGERIA Sahara Desert KUWAIT SAUDI Qena Riyadh ARABIA MAURITANIA Cape Verde Nouakchott NIGER MALI SENEGAL ERITREA Asmara CHAD Dakar NLNG (Bonny Isl.) TOGO BENIN Niamey Banjul Bamako BURKINA FASO THE GAMBIA Ndjamena Bissau Ouagadougou NIGERIA GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA Kaduna Conakry Abuja IVORY Freetown COAST CENTRAL SIERRA LEONE Yamoussoukrou P. Novo OK LNG AFRICAN Lome CAMEROON Monrovia REPUBLIC LIBERIA AbidjanAccra Brass LNG GHANA Infrastruktura gazowa w Afryce In Amenas In Salah WESTERN SAHARA Byoko Isl. San’a Y Karthoum DJIBOUTI Djibouti Addis Ababa SUDAN ETHIOPIA SOMALIA Bangui Yaounde EQUA. GUINEA UGANDA KENYA Kampala SAO TOME & PRINCIPE Libreville CONGO Mogadishu RWANDA Nairobi GABON Kigali DEMOCRATIC REP. Bujumbura Brazzaville OF CONGO Mombasa Kinshasa BURUNDI Pointe Noire Malongo CABINDA Dodoma Quinfuquena TANZANIA Luanda Comoro ANGOLA MALAWI ZAMBIA 0 Miles 0 Km Lilongwe Lusaka Harare 1 000 1 000 ZIMBAWE NAMIBIA Existing gas pipeline Planned or under construction gas pipeline Gas production area Gas field LNG export plant Under const. or planned LNG export plant Planned LNG import terminal Windhoek Alexander Bay BOTSWANA Antananarivo MADAGASCAR MOZAMBIQUE Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane Sasolburg SWAZILAND Maseru Richard’s Bay LESOTHO Durban SOUTH AFRICA Cape Town Mossel Bay !"#$%&'()&*$"+&#,(-%".",/0*(1.2(3-45 Saturday, March 23, 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2008 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. 60 Gaz ziemny - dane podstawowe Ceny, kaloryczność - globalnie onversion (MEP)2009 4/08/09 18:34 Page 60 61 Wybrane krajowe wartości opałowe Selected country-specific gross calorific values Natural gas* kJ/m3 Russian Federation 37578 United States 38341 Canada 38110 Islamic Rep. of Iran 39356 Norway 39668 Netherlands 33339 Algeria 42000 Qatar 41400 Indonesia 40600 People's Rep. of China 38931 *for the top-ten producers in 2008. Note: to calculate the net calorific value, the gross calorific value is multiplied by 0.9. 62 Conventions for electricity IN SELECTED COUNTRIES in US dollars/unit Nat. gas for Nat. gas for Steam coal Electricity for Electricity for industry households for industry(f) industry(g) households(g) (107 kcal GCV(e)) (107 kcal GCV(e)) (tonne) (kWh) (kWh) Ceny w wybranych Figures for electricity production, trade, and final consumption are calculated using the energy krajach w 60 .. .. c 357.00 582.62 614.12 c 372.25 607.28 .. 643.89 753.00 .. 616.23 646.48 .. 499.53 .. 433.14 .. .. .. 1024.28 .. 512.68 538.45 848.87 .. 520.61 920.40 .. 1214.18 748.76 .. 1033.95 1152.69 .. 633.96 .. 736.07 1239.93 .. .. 242.64 .. .. .. c .. 216.75 .. .. .. .. 41.50 .. 143.68 133.40 117.67 .. .. 745.36 572.88 445.98 369.11 .. 1093.51 659.24 825.82 525.28 .. 216.41 92.60 124.54 69.99 .. 0.1541 .. .. 0.0672 0.1512 .. 0.0969 0.0595 .. .. 0.1697 .. 0.1859 0.2898 .. 0.0602 .. 0.1260 c 0.0714 0.0636 0.1193 0.1313 0.1739 0.1252 .. 0.0938 0.1388 0.1459 0.0702 .. 0.2572 .. .. 0.0856 0.1915 0.3960 0.1724 0.1690 .. .. 0.2234 .. 0.2672 0.3053 .. 0.0886 .. 0.0961 0.2426 0.1644 0.1639 0.1930 0.2197 0.2196 0.2180 .. 0.1543 0.1648 0.2313 0.1135 content of the electricity (i.e. at a rate of 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe). Hydro-electricity production (excluding USD/jednostkę pumped storage) and electricity produced by other non-thermal means (wind, tide/wave/ocean, photovoltaic, etc.) are accounted for similarly using 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe. However, the primary energy equivalent of nuclear electricity is calculated from the gross generation by assuming a 33% conversion efficiency, i.e. 1 TWh = (0.086 ÷ 0.33) × Mtoe. In the .. case of electricity produced from geothermal heat, if c × × .. the actual geothermal efficiency is 105.26 not known, then 531.71 933.26 531.92 is 1066.38 .. assuming an the primary equivalent calculated 622.70 785.56 .. 486.59 1026.80 efficiency of 10%, so 1 TWh = (0.086 ..÷ 0.1) Mtoe. Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chinese Taipei Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary India Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States (d) Unleaded premium gasoline (95 RON); unleaded regular for Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand and the United States. (e) Gross calorific value. (f) Brown coal for Turkey. (g) Prices excluding tax for the United States. .. not available x not applicable c confidential Saturday, March 23, 2013 43 5 63 References I N T E R N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y A G E N C Y Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency Key Insights from IEA Indicator Analysis In support of the G8 Plan of Action ENERGY INDICATORS Saturday, March 23, 2013 64