Cyfrowy Polsat

c
re
Fo
a
pd
tU
as
13/2012/FU (129) October 2, 2012
Analyst: Sobiesław Pająk, CFA, [email protected], +48 (22) 489 94 70
te
Cyfrowy Polsat
Sector: Media & Entertainment Fundamental rating: Hold (→) Market relative: Underweight (↓) Price: PLN 14.67
12M EFV: PLN 15.3 (↑) Stock performance
Guide to adjusted profits
Adjusted PBT and adjusted NI exclude non-cash translation gains/ losses on Euro-denominated interest-bearing debt.
18
WIG
Cyfrowy Polsat
17
Key data
16
15
14
13
Volume (m)
12
2.0
1.0
10.2012
09.2012
08.2012
07.2012
06.2012
05.2012
04.2012
03.2012
02.2012
01.2012
12.2011
11.2011
0.0
10.2011
Market Cap.: US$ 1,605 m
Reuters code: CPSM.WA
Av. daily turnover: US$ 1.01 m
Free float: 48.5%
12M range: PLN 12.70-15.71
Source: ISI
Investment story & recommendation
First half of the year brought excellent financial results of Cyfrowy
Polsat (reported EBITDA up by 54% yoy, like-for-like EBITDA
of ‘old’ Cyfrowy (DTH & telco services operations) higher 35%
yoy), not only because TV Polsat’s takeover added a non-organic
factor to overall profit momentum, but predominantly due to much
faster than originally signaled and expected (1 year versus
>2 years) attainment of target level of synergies on the takeover.
The most prosperous (in terms of operating profit dynamics)
period for the Company seems, however, a by-gone. With
saturating pay-TV market (capping further growth potential for DTH
net adds) and recession on the TV ad market (unlikely – in our
view – to V-shape-reverse in the coming years), the sole growth
drivers left are: (i) DTH unit price up-drift (either via rate increases
or up-selling; either way of moderate impact, in our view), and
(ii) broadband service user expansion (low-margin business).
Hence, in the coming quarters, the Company’s EBITDA growth
pace is bound to hit the brakes (e.g. for 2H12/ FY13 we forecast
the yoy dynamics at mere 9%/ 4%). These developments make
Cyfrowy’s equities increasingly a defensive exposure, likely to
outperform during market’s weakness, yet most likely a laggard
(in market-relative terms) during the bull market. As September’s
reflationary actions by ECB (and Fed) unambiguously limit adverse
tail-scenarios and should support risk assets’ prices, we cut our
ST market-relative bias for Cyfrowy’s shares to an Underweight
(from Neutral). From the fundamental angle, though, we remain
holders of the stock, signaling simultaneously that appreciation
of the Company’s share market price in excess of the PLN 15 level
should be treated as an occasion to trim the exposure to the
Company’s equities by LT value-oriented investors.
IFRS consolidated
Revenues:
DTH and telco services:
PLN m
PLN m
2011
2,365.9
1,635.4
2012E
2,754.4
1,771.2
2013E
2,841.2
1,849.6
2014E
2,940.3
1,926.9
DTH subscription fees
Other user sales
Hardware sales
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
1,565.5
29.4
16.5
1,657.7
64.2
16.0
1,688.2
103.1
15.0
1,709.4
158.9
14.5
Miscellaneous
TV broadcasting
Consolidation adjustment
EBITDA:
DTH and telco services:
TV broadcasting
EBITDA margin
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
%
23.9
796.3
-65.8
727.0
473.7
253.2
30.7
33.2
1,088.3
-105.1
955.7
611.7
344.0
34.7
43.2
1,100.1
-108.4
992.2
653.7
338.5
34.9
44.1
1,125.6
-112.2
1,008.3
667.1
341.2
34.3
EBIT
PBT
NI
Adj NI
EPS*
EPS* yoy change
Net debt
Net debt/ EBITDA
P/E*
P/CE*
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/FCFF
FCFF yield
Gross dividend yield
DPS
Number of shares (eop)
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN m
PLN
%
PLN m
x
x
x
x
x
x
%
%
PLN
m
560.3
192.0
160.2
297.4
0.85
-11
2,459.9
3.4
17.2
11.0
10.4
13.5
neg.
neg.
0.0
0.00
348.4
728.2
626.2
520.9
436.1
1.25
47
2,055.1
2.2
11.7
7.7
7.5
9.8
14.1
7.1
0.0
0.00
348.4
731.8
559.8
454.0
454.0
1.30
4
1,596.1
1.6
11.3
7.2
6.8
9.2
11.3
8.9
0.0
0.00
348.4
743.3
597.3
484.4
484.4
1.39
7
1,308.8
1.3
10.5
6.8
6.4
8.6
11.0
9.1
3.6
0.52
348.4
* based on adjusted NI.
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
Upcoming events
1. Release of 3Q12 financial results: November 14, 2012
2. TV audience share data: released at the beginning of each month
Catalysts
Risk factors
1. Possible price increases of CP’s Familijny package
2. Strengthening of Polish zloty relative to Euro and
US$
3. Increased multiple-offer pay-TV subscriptions by
households: may result in higher net adds and higher
target level of pay-TV penetration than we assume at
the moment
4. Commercial success of broadband offering
5. Widening of distribution of TV Polsat’s thematic
channels
6. Synergies from co-operation with Plus MNO
1. Saturation of the pay-TV market: caps volume-driven
component of growth, leaving the unit price increases as
the sole growth driver for DTH business
2. Negative net adds at Familijny package
3. Weakening of PLN against US$ and Euro
4. Commercial failure of broadband offering
5. DTT rollout: (i) DTH area – could adversely impact CP,
due to its focus on off-large-cities areas and some
drive towards the lower-to-average income part of the
customer spectrum, (ii) TV broadcasting area – will
increase the competition on the market and remove the
entry barriers
6. Changes in viewers’ habits (Poles devoting increasingly
less time to watching television)
7. The Company’s current market valuation rests upon
good track-record in delivering on promises: the
expectations bar is set high (severe adverse reaction
possible in case of missing market’s expectations)
Cyfrowy Polsat
Quarterly earnings corner: 3Q12E preview
3Q12 financial results of Cyfrowy Polsat – to be revealed
on November 14, before the opening of the session – will be
(for the 1st time) fully comparable in yoy perspective as far as the
TV broadcasting segment goes, as TV Polsat was consolidated
for the entire base quarter of 3Q11; the sole factor distorting
the full yoy comparability of the Company’s 3Q11 consolidated
financial showing will be Ipla (unconsolidated for 3Q11), yet its
impact will range from minor (consolidated revenues) to second
to none (EBITDA).
In brief, contrary to 1H12 – when the Company booked stellar
(54% in case of EBITDA) yoy operating profit dynamics (partially
due to non-organic impact of TV Polsat (consolidated last
year from April 20 onwards), yet also due to robust profitability
improvement at the DTH segment (35% up yoy on the EBITDA
basis, chiefly thanks to earlier than originally expected attainment
of targeted cost synergies on TV Polsat’s takeover)) – we expect
the yoy momentum of Cyfrowy’s operating profits to markedly
decelerate (marking an onset of a permanent tendency, rather
than just a transient one) to c. 7-10% level (in case of EBIT and
EBITDA, respectively), due to (i) steadily rising profit base in the
DTH segment, (ii) scarce net add at Familijny during the past
12 months (i.e. 4Q11-3Q12E), and (iii) TV-ad-market-weaknessdriven modest yoy slide of profits of the TV broadcasting
segment. True, the bottom line for 3Q12E is bound to soar yoy
on the back of hefty translation gains on Euro-denominated debt
(in the base quarter of 3Q11 the reported bottom line rested way
below the watermark, due to PLN-weakening-triggered deep
FX-debt translation losses), yet this non-cash component should
be stripped by the market’s participants (both from 3Q12 and
the base quarter) when assessing Cyfrowy’s quarterly showing;
on the adjusted basis (i.e. with non-cash translation gains/
losses eliminated), our forecast implies c. 60% yoy improvement
at the bottom line level in 3Q12 – more than respectable dynamics
(way higher than at the EBIT level, due to the Company’s heavy
(approx. PLN 350 million, according to our estimates) debt
redemptions (limiting the size of interest cost) over the course
of past 12 months), and comparable to the one posted for 1H12
(59%).
Should our forecast of Cyfrowy’s 3Q12 financial results hit
the mark, the investors should not be disappointed, we believe;
on the flip of a coin, such financial showing should not trigger
a meaningful upward re-rating of Cyfrowy’s share market price,
the way we see it. In terms of trading impact of more importance
might prove the management’s outlook for the coming quarters
(likely to be communicated following the release of the 3Q12
financials), especially as far as the TV ad market and the Company’s
TV broadcasting segment are concerned. This outlook, however,
is – the way we see it at the moment – unlikely to be trilling;
we tentatively expect the TV advertising outlays to contract
in the last quarter of 2012 by at least 5% in yoy perspective.
Coming into more details, our expectations regarding Cyfrowy’s
financial showing for the third quarter of 2012 are based
on the assumptions outlined below (please also refer to Figure 1):
3Q12E DTH net add in the vicinity of a zero (both at Familijny
aa
and Mini);
3Q12E DTH ARPU marginally (by c. 1%) higher qoq, both at
aa
Familijny and Mini (helped by three pay-per-view events in the
quarter);
3Q12E net add at broadband at >20 ths.;
aa
3Q12E DTH subscription revenues at c. PLN 415 million
aa
(4%/1% up yoy/ qoq), 3Q12E total user services revenues
at c. PLN 432 million (1% up qoq, 6% higher yoy);
3Q12E revenues of ‘old’ Cyfrowy Polsat (i.e. excluding
aa
contribution from Telewizja Polsat) of c. PLN 445 million
(1%/ 7% higher qoq/ yoy);
TV advertising & sponsoring revenues of TV Polsat
aa
at c. PLN 160 million, representing yoy decline of c. -5%,
Fig. 1 Cyfrowy Polsat; 3Q12E operating statistics
Number of users of DTH eop (ths.)
Familijny (ths.)
Mini (ths.)
DTH net addition (ths.) qoq
Familijny (ths.)
Mini (ths.)
DTH net addition (ths.) yoy
Familijny (ths.)
Mini (ths.)
Number of users of DTH (ths.), period's average
Familijny (ths.)
Mini (ths.)
DTH ARPU blended (PLN)
Familijny
Mini
3Q12E
2Q12
3Q11
3,553.5
2,750.9
802.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
47.4
8.7
38.7
3,553.5
2,750.9
802.6
38.9
46.4
13.3
3,553.5
2,750.9
802.6
0.1
-46.2
46.4
80.7
44.8
35.9
3,538.4
2,772.4
766.0
38.8
45.9
13.2
3,506.1
2,742.2
763.9
33.3
36.1
-2.8
228.1
146.6
81.5
3,493.1
2,726.9
766.2
37.9
44.7
13.8
qoq
change
0%
0%
0%
-100%
n.m.
-100%
-41%
-81%
8%
0%
-1%
5%
0%
1%
1%
yoy
change
1%
0%
5%
-100%
-100%
n.m.
-79%
-94%
-53%
2%
1%
5%
3%
4%
-3%
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
2
????????????????????????
Cyfrowy Polsat
ahead of the market’s dynamics (which – the way we tentatively
see it – might have contracted in the quarter by as much
as 8-10% in yoy terms);
On the basis of the above assumptions and assuming creation
of approx. PLN 10 million of deferred tax liability on FX-resultant
translation gains, for 3Q12 we forecast Cyfrowy Polsat to deliver:
Telewizja Polsat adds approx. PLN 219 million/ PLN 194 million
aa
consolidated revenues of c. PLN 639 million (4% increase yoy),
aa
(before / after adjustment for intra-group sales) to Group’s
3Q12E consolidated top line (3% down yoy), with 3Q12E
contribution to Group’s EBITDA at c. PLN 50 million (8% lower
than in 3Q11);
3Q12E like-for-like EBITDA of ‘old’ Cyfrowy Polsat (DTH &
aa
telco services business) at approx. PLN 165 million (c. 17%
higher yoy, yet flat qoq);
EBITDA of approx. PLN 215 million (10% higher yoy, exclusively
aa
due to yoy improvement of the DTH segment, as the TV
broadcasting seems doomed to report some contraction of its
quarterly EBITDA in yoy perspective), and
reported net profit of c. PLN 130 million, driven by large
aa
2Q12E net financial income at c. PLN 2 million, comprising
aa
(among others): (i) c. PLN -45 million of interest costs (term
facility loan, Euro-bonds), (ii) c. PLN -6 million of costs related
to amortization of provisions for awarded debt financing and
of capitalized advisory expenses, and (iii) c. PLN 52 million FX
gain (on the PBT level), chiefly on PLN-strengthening-triggered
translation of the Company’s Euro 350 million bonds.
(approx. PLN 52 million on the PBT level) translation gain
on Euro bond, yet much lower (of approx. PLN 88 million)
adjusted (i.e. excluding non-cash translation gain, net of related
deferred tax liability) NI for the quarter (albeit still c. 60%
higher yoy); please refer to Figure 2 regarding the details of our
quarterly projection for the Company.
Fig. 2 Cyfrowy Polsat; 3Q12 and 1-3Q12 results' forecast
IFRS consolidated
PLN m
Sales:
DTH and telecommunication services:
DTH subscription fees:
Familijny
Mini
Other user sales
Hardware sales
Miscellaneous
TV broadcasting:
TV ads & sponsoring
Carriage fees
Miscellaneous
Consolidation adjustment
OPEX excl. D&A
EBITDA:
DTH and telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
EBITDA margin:
DTH and telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
D&A
EBIT
EBIT margin
Net financial income (cost)
PBT
PBT margin
Adj PBT
Adj PBT margin
CIT
NI
NI margin
Adj NI
Adj NI margin
3Q12E
638.8
444.7
414.7
382.6
32.1
17.0
4.0
9.0
218.5
160.1
23.6
34.9
-24.4
-423.3
215.5
165.6
49.9
33.7%
37.2%
22.9%
-57.7
157.8
24.7%
2.1
160.7
17.1%
109.1
17.1%
-30.5
130.2
13.8%
88.3
13.8%
2Q12
713.8
440.3
412.1
381.8
30.3
15.8
6.2
6.2
295.8
236.0
23.6
36.3
-22.3
-444.1
269.8
164.8
105.0
37.8%
37.4%
35.5%
-56.7
213.1
29.8%
-100.9
112.9
20.6%
146.9
20.6%
-13.4
99.5
17.8%
127.1
17.8%
3Q11
615.5
415.3
397.4
365.7
31.7
8.0
2.7
7.1
225.4
168.5
22.0
34.9
-25.2
-419.3
196.2
141.9
54.3
31.9%
34.2%
24.1%
-48.3
148.0
24.0%
-217.4
-68.5
12.4%
76.4
12.4%
6.5
-62.0
9.0%
55.4
9.0%
qoq
change
-11%
1%
1%
0%
6%
8%
-35%
45%
-26%
-32%
0%
-4%
10%
-5%
-20%
0%
-52%
2%
-26%
n.m.
42%
-26%
128%
31%
-30%
-
yoy
change 1-3Q12E
4% 2,021.9
7% 1,319.4
4% 1,237.9
5% 1,144.6
1%
93.3
111%
46.3
47%
12.9
26%
22.2
-3%
776.8
-5%
601.1
7%
70.4
0%
105.2
-3%
-74.3
1% -1,279.2
10%
742.7
17%
495.8
-8%
247.0
36.7%
37.6%
31.8%
20%
-168.8
7%
573.9
28.4%
n.m.
-56.3
n.m.
519.9
20.5%
43%
415.2
20.5%
n.m.
-85.1
n.m.
434.8
17.3%
60%
350.0
17.3%
1-3Q11
1,646.7
1,214.3
1,159.3
1,076.4
83.0
18.9
11.9
24.2
473.3
377.2
38.2
57.9
-40.9
-1,108.6
538.1
386.5
151.6
32.7%
31.8%
32.0%
-121.3
416.7
25.3%
-301.1
117.2
17.3%
284.6
17.3%
-33.3
83.9
13.3%
219.5
13.3%
yoy
change
23%
9%
7%
6%
12%
145%
9%
-8%
64%
59%
84%
82%
81%
15%
38%
28%
63%
39%
38%
n.m.
344%
46%
156%
418%
59%
-
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
????????????????????????
3
Cyfrowy Polsat
Financial forecasts
Our revenue forecasts for Cyfrowy Polsat are moderately lowered
(by 4-9%), due to (i) downgraded expectations for TV advertising
market (6% contraction this year, followed by 2% contraction
next year and very gradual recovery thereafter), (ii) downsized
assumptions regarding the Company’s DTH net additions
(and their inferior – compared to what we adopted previously
– structure; please see Figure 12 regarding the details), and
(iii) slower than previously assumed broadband net adds.
Despite lowered top line projections, our ST profit forecasts
for the Company are significantly upped (e.g. 2012E EBITDA/
EBIT upped by 18%/25%), chiefly on the back of much quicker
than originally signaled and expected (1 year versus >2 years)
attainment of full synergies on TV Polsat’s takeover. Please
note, however, that while the aforementioned synergies have
been captured at a pace topping the boldest expectations, their
ultimate target size did not swell. Consequently, the resultant
positive spill-over effect fades in time, with longer-run profit
projections for Cyfrowy raised in an incomparably lower extent
(e.g. 2014E EBITDA and EBIT forecasts increased by mere 2%).
Regarding the details, please refer to Figure 3.
Valuation
Our assessment of the Company’s per share 12M forward EFV
(an equally-weighted average of DCF and peer-relative approaches)
increases by 5% to PLN 15.3 per share (from PLN 14.5 per share
previously), due to aforementioned noticeable increase of our
short-term profit forecasts for the Company, valuation horizon
forward shift and PLN-strengthening-triggered lower value
of interest-bearing debt (in reporting currency terms); please refer
to Figures 4-5 regarding the details.
Fig. 3 Cyfrowy Polsat; Changes in IDM’s financial forecasts
IFRS consolidated
PLN m
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
NI
Adj NI
2012E
current previous
2,754.4 2,871.4
955.7
810.4
728.2
581.5
520.9
305.2
436.1
305.2
change
-4%
18%
25%
71%
43%
2013E
current previous
2,841.2 3,044.0
992.2
887.3
731.8
629.0
454.0
394.6
454.0
366.3
change
-7%
12%
16%
15%
24%
2014E
current previous
2,940.3 3,213.5
1,008.3
988.3
743.3
727.9
484.4
484.4
484.4
456.0
change
-9%
2%
2%
0%
6%
Source: DM IDMSA estimates
4
????????????????????????
Cyfrowy Polsat
Fig. 4 Cyfrowy Polsat; DCF model
PLN m
Sales
yoy change
EBIT margin
EBIT
yoy change
Effective CIT tax rate (T)
EBIT*(1-T)
yoy change
EBITDA
yoy change
EBITDA margin
D&A
EBIT * (1-T) + D&A
yoy change
CAPEX: Intangibles and tangible fixed assets
CAPEX: M&As (net of cash)
Change in NWC and deferrals
Change in own production
Net change in programming library
Proceeds from assets' sale
Equity issue proceeds/ share buy-back outlays
FCFF
yoy change
Cost of equity
Risk free rate
Equity market premium
Unlevered beta
Beta adjusted for leverage
Required rate of return
Cost of debt
Cost of debt (pre-tax)
Tax rate
After-tax cost of debt
WACC
Weight of interest-bearing debt
Weight of equity
Cost of equity
After-tax cost of debt
WACC
Discount multiple
Discount factor
PV of FCFF
Sum of FCFFs PVs plus dividend payable prior the valuation horizon
Weight of interest-bearing debt in the residual period
Weight of equity in the residual period
Average cost of equity in the definite period
Average WACC in the definite period
WACC in the residual period
Residual growth of FCFFs, base-case scenario
Residual value
Present value of the residual value
Value of the Company's operations
Non-operating assets
Enterprise value
Net debt, eop 2012E
Equity value
No. of shares (m)
12M EFV, base-case scenario (PLN)
2012E
2,754.4
16%
26.4%
728.2
30%
17%
605.2
30%
955.7
31%
34.7%
227.5
832.7
32%
-261.0
-141.9
34.1
4.1
36.1
4.6
0.0
508.6
n.m.
2013E
2,841.2
3%
25.8%
731.8
0%
19%
592.8
-2%
992.2
4%
34.9%
260.4
853.2
2%
-240.0
0.0
-20.4
5.0
-3.1
0.0
0.0
594.6
17%
2014E
2,940.3
3%
25.3%
743.3
2%
19%
602.0
2%
1,008.3
2%
34.3%
265.0
867.1
2%
-258.1
0.0
-17.7
-5.0
-3.2
0.0
0.0
583.1
-2%
2015E
3,070.4
4%
25.7%
790.2
6%
19%
640.0
6%
1,045.8
4%
34.1%
255.7
895.7
3%
-248.7
0.0
-16.4
-6.0
-3.3
0.0
0.0
621.3
7%
2016E
3,201.1
4%
26.5%
846.8
7%
19%
685.9
7%
1,079.8
3%
33.7%
233.0
918.9
3%
-226.1
0.0
-24.8
-7.0
-3.3
0.0
0.0
657.7
6%
2017E
3,292.0
3%
26.6%
874.1
3%
19%
708.0
3%
1,113.4
3%
33.8%
239.4
947.4
3%
-232.4
0.0
-17.4
-8.0
-3.4
0.0
0.0
686.1
4%
2018E
3,376.1
3%
26.7%
902.0
3%
19%
730.6
3%
1,148.8
3%
34.0%
246.8
977.4
3%
-249.6
0.0
-20.1
-9.0
-3.5
0.0
0.0
695.3
1%
>2018E
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.5
12.8%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.3
12.2%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.3
11.9%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.2
11.6%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.2
11.4%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.1
11.1%
5.5%
5.0%
1.1
1.1
10.9%
5.0%
5.0%
1.1
1.1
10.4%
7.6%
17%
6.3%
7.4%
19%
6.0%
7.2%
19%
5.9%
7.3%
19%
5.9%
7.4%
19%
6.0%
7.4%
19%
6.0%
7.4%
19%
6.0%
7.4%
19%
6.0%
28%
72%
12.8%
6.3%
11.0%
1.00
1.00
-
21%
79%
12.2%
6.0%
10.9%
1.02
0.98
581.5
17%
83%
11.9%
5.9%
10.9%
1.13
0.88
514.2
13%
87%
11.6%
5.9%
10.9%
1.26
0.80
494.0
8%
92%
11.4%
6.0%
11.0%
1.40
0.72
471.2
3%
97%
11.1%
6.0%
11.0%
1.55
0.65
443.0
0%
100%
10.9%
6.0%
10.9%
1.72
0.58
404.8
0%
100%
10.4%
6.0%
10.4%
1.0%
2,908.6
0%
100%
11.7%
10.9%
10.4%
1.0%
7,477.5
4,353.3
7,261.9
0.0
7,261.9
2,055.1
5,206.8
348.4
14.9
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
????????????????????????
5
Cyfrowy Polsat
Fig. 5 Cyfrowy Polsat; Peer-relative valuation
Company
ASTRO ALL ASIA NETWORKS PLC
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING GRO
SKY DEUTSCHLAND AG
ASTRAL MEDIA INC-A
DIRECTV
DISH NETWORK CORP-A
DISH TV INDIA LTD
ANTENA 3 TELEVISION
TVN
CENTRAL EUROPEAN MEDIA ENT-A
CTC MEDIA INC
DOGAN YAYIN HOLDING AS
ECHOSTAR CORP-A
MEDIASET ESPANA COMUNICACION
ITV PLC
MEDIASET SPA
M6-METROPOLE TELEVISION
PROSIEBEN SAT.1 MEDIA AG-PRF
TELEVISION FRANCAISE (T.F.1)
RTL GROUP
Median
CP's EBITDA/ EBIT/ Adj NI
CP's implied EV (PLN m)
CP's net debt (PLN m)
CP's implied equity value (PLN m)
Number of shares (m)
CP's implied EFV per share (PLN)
CP's implied EFV per share, average across years for a given multiple (PLN)
CP's implied EFV per share, average across years and multiples (PLN)
EV/EBITDA
2012E 2013E
8.7
6.8
8.5
8.0
n.m.
54.3
9.4
8.7
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.3
19.0
15.2
14.5
12.2
6.8
7.1
9.6
8.2
5.7
5.1
6.2
4.9
5.9
4.9
29.0
17.1
6.5
5.8
3.7
3.2
3.7
3.6
7.2
6.7
4.1
3.8
8.6
8.4
6.8
6.7
955.7
992.2
6,455.1 6,686.0
2,055.1 1,596.1
4,400.0 5,089.9
348.4
348.4
12.6
14.6
13.6
EV/EBIT
2012E 2013E
13.1
14.2
11.0
10.3
n.a.
n.a.
10.4
9.7
9.4
8.9
8.4
7.3
680.9
146.8
19.0
16.7
8.2
8.7
20.4
13.7
6.1
5.4
11.8
8.5
21.9
17.3
38.4
20.3
7.2
6.5
15.8
11.2
4.9
4.8
8.6
7.7
5.8
5.2
10.0
9.8
10.4
9.7
728.2
731.8
7,561.8
7,119.8
2,055.1 1,596.1
5,506.7 5,523.6
348.4
348.4
15.8
15.9
15.8
15.6
P/E
2012E 2013E
23.8
15.9
14.1
13.2
n.a.
n.a.
14.0
13.2
12.0
11.1
12.5
12.0
n.a.
n.a.
18.2
15.9
26.3
19.2
n.a.
n.a.
10.2
9.3
13.2
17.6
60.0
50.9
31.1
20.7
10.7
10.1
28.5
15.7
10.2
10.2
11.2
10.1
9.0
8.3
16.4
16.2
14.0
13.2
436.1
454.0
6,086.1 6,014.1
348.4
348.4
17.5
17.3
17.4
Multiples priced as of the close of October 1, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, DM IDMSA estimates
6
????????????????????????
????????????????????????
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
PLN m
Fixed assets
Intangibles
Goodwill
Brandnames
Tangible fixed assets:
Tangibles (other than STBs)
STBs (leased to subscribers)
LT programming assets
Investment real estate
Deferred tax asset
Capitalized distribution commissions
LT equity stakes
LT derivative instruments
Other LT assets
Current assets
ST programming assets
Inventories
ST receivables:
Trading
Other
Capitalized distribution commissions
ST investments:
ST financial assets:
Loans & fixed-income instruments
Equities
Derivatives
Cash
ST deferred assets
Assets related to discontinued operations
Total assets
Fig. 6 Cyfrowy Polsat; Balance sheet
2005
88.0
6.7
0.0
0.0
58.4
16.2
42.1
0.0
0.0
18.6
0.0
4.0
0.0
0.3
154.0
0.0
30.4
34.2
24.6
9.6
21.5
67.5
3.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
64.5
0.5
0.0
242.0
2006
103.0
4.4
0.0
0.0
53.7
45.7
8.0
0.0
28.5
3.5
10.6
2.2
0.0
0.0
250.4
0.0
58.0
43.3
28.7
14.6
37.7
109.9
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
109.8
0.1
1.4
353.4
2007
163.4
11.5
0.0
0.0
97.9
97.3
0.5
0.0
18.9
4.1
29.6
1.3
0.0
0.0
431.8
0.0
130.0
82.1
44.5
37.6
67.2
150.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
150.7
1.8
0.0
595.2
2008
201.1
11.9
0.0
0.0
146.8
126.0
20.8
0.0
17.0
1.2
22.9
1.3
0.0
0.0
556.0
0.0
95.0
128.9
85.0
43.9
68.2
260.4
14.0
0.0
0.0
14.0
246.4
3.5
0.0
757.1
2009
340.9
14.2
0.0
0.0
268.7
146.2
122.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
29.7
26.2
0.0
0.0
433.9
0.0
122.1
153.2
87.1
66.0
56.0
99.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
99.4
3.2
0.0
774.9
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
2017E 2018E
545.2 4,225.3 4,396.9 4,383.3 4,384.3 4,381.8 4,382.6 4,382.8 4,393.0
23.2
54.2
49.0
39.1
33.9
33.7
31.9
31.2
32.4
52.0 2,412.3 2,575.5 2,575.5 2,575.5 2,575.5 2,575.5 2,575.5 2,575.5
0.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
840.0
428.3
671.9
710.6
700.1
698.3
691.6
686.5
680.2
681.8
152.9
263.3
232.9
229.3
234.5
234.7
236.5
237.2
236.8
275.4
408.6
477.7
470.7
463.8
456.9
450.0
443.0
445.0
0.0
131.1
109.3
108.4
112.4
116.9
121.9
127.5
133.6
0.0
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
4.2
55.7
55.7
55.7
55.7
55.7
55.7
55.7
55.7
35.3
35.0
31.8
39.5
43.4
43.4
46.1
47.6
48.9
1.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
0.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
0.8
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
470.0 1,099.8 1,066.5 1,357.1 1,362.8 1,392.5 1,808.0 2,232.2 1,257.0
0.0
137.4
114.5
113.6
117.8
122.5
127.8
133.6
140.0
173.2
178.1
184.2
186.8
188.8
191.5
194.2
194.9
195.8
191.8
307.2
330.9
335.3
347.0
362.3
377.7
388.5
398.4
148.1
247.8
261.7
269.9
279.3
291.7
304.1
312.7
320.7
43.7
59.5
69.3
65.3
67.6
70.6
73.6
75.7
77.7
63.9
59.4
53.9
67.0
73.6
73.6
78.1
80.7
82.9
33.2
303.2
257.0
516.0
483.3
475.0
845.8 1,231.7
216.9
5.6
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
0.0
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
5.6
10.8
10.8
10.8
27.6
277.5
231.3
490.3
457.6
449.4
820.1 1,206.0
191.2
7.8
114.5
125.9
138.5
152.4
167.6
184.4
202.8
223.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,015.2 5,325.2 5,463.4 5,740.4 5,747.0 5,774.3 6,190.6 6,615.0 5,650.0
Financial statements (IFRS, consolidated)
Cyfrowy Polsat
7
Fig. 7 Cyfrowy Polsat; Balance sheet (continued)
8
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
PLN m
Equity
Minority interest
Liabilities & reserves
Reserves
Deferred income tax
Other
LT liabilities
Non-interest-bearing
Interest-bearing
ST liabilities
Interest-bearing
Non-interest-bearing
Trading
STB deposits
ST deferred liabilities
(subscription pre-payments & other)
Liabilities related to discontinued operations
Other
Total liabilities & equity
2006
-62.7
0.1
416.0
0.6
0.0
0.6
30.1
0.0
30.1
385.3
208.1
177.2
73.4
21.6
66.5
1.2
14.5
353.4
2005
-118.4
0.1
360.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.9
0.0
358.4
247.4
111.0
32.2
28.5
47.0
0.0
3.3
242.0
0.0
17.8
595.2
2007
61.1
0.0
534.1
19.5
0.7
18.8
133.6
0.0
133.6
380.9
88.9
292.0
156.9
20.0
97.2
0.0
14.6
757.1
2008
293.3
0.0
463.8
15.8
11.5
4.3
45.9
0.4
45.5
402.0
66.8
335.2
130.0
22.4
168.2
0.0
16.6
774.9
2009
322.4
0.0
452.4
37.8
26.1
11.8
1.2
0.0
1.2
413.4
47.6
365.8
87.5
18.8
243.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.2
57.2
82.6
1,015.2 5,325.2 5,463.4
0.0
85.2
5,740.4
0.0
88.2
5,747.0
0.0
92.1
5,774.3
0.0
96.0
6,190.6
2018E
4,776.3
0.0
873.8
118.2
0.0
118.2
100.6
99.6
0.9
655.0
0.3
654.8
139.7
12.7
401.0
0.0
0.0
98.8
101.3
6,615.0 5,650.0
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
2017E
427.9 1,896.0 2,416.9 2,871.0 3,173.7 3,519.9 3,914.3 4,318.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
587.3 3,429.1 3,046.5 2,869.4 2,573.3 2,254.4 2,276.4 2,296.1
23.5
94.7
96.4
99.4
102.9
107.5
112.0
115.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.5
94.7
96.4
99.4
102.9
107.5
112.0
115.2
68.8 2,604.8 2,200.6 1,880.6 1,540.4 1,540.4 1,540.4
100.6
67.7
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
1.1 2,505.2
2,101.0 1,781.0 1,440.8 1,440.8 1,440.8
0.9
494.9
729.6
749.5
889.4
930.0
606.6
623.9 2,080.3
18.5
247.0
200.3
320.3
340.5
0.3
0.3 1,440.1
476.4
482.6
549.2
569.1
589.5
606.3
623.7
640.3
154.1
97.9
114.0
117.6
121.7
127.1
132.5
136.2
15.5
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
280.6
314.8
339.9
353.6
366.9
374.4
382.4
392.5
Cyfrowy Polsat
????????????????????????
????????????????????????
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
PLN m
Sales:
DTH & telecommunication services:
DTH subscription fees:
Familijny
Mini
Other user sales
Hardware sales
Miscellaneous
TV broadcasting:
TV ads + sponsoring
Carriage fees
Other
Consolidation adjustment
OPEX, excl. D&A:
Programming costs
Marketing, distribution & customer retention
TV production
HR
Broadcasting
Film licenses
Equipment sold
Other:
Interconnection & related
Miscellaneous
Other operating income/ cost, net
EBITDA:
DTH & telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
D&A:
DTH & telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
Fig. 8 Cyfrowy Polsat; Income statement
2005
281.9
281.9
172.8
172.8
0.0
0.0
68.3
40.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-209.9
-28.6
-28.9
0.0
-16.6
-30.9
0.0
-101.0
-4.0
0.0
-4.0
-25.6
46.4
46.4
0.0
-50.1
-50.1
0.0
2006
493.8
493.8
351.1
350.9
0.2
0.0
100.6
42.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-385.2
-68.4
-66.0
0.0
-19.6
-36.1
0.0
-179.7
-15.3
0.0
-15.3
-34.1
74.6
74.6
0.0
-32.8
-32.8
0.0
2007
2008
796.7 1,098.5
796.7 1,098.5
662.5
977.7
645.8
945.9
16.7
31.8
0.0
2.8
107.2
98.5
26.9
19.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-586.5 -752.3
-152.0
-226.2
-125.9
-205.9
0.0
0.0
-41.7
-61.8
-48.4
-59.0
0.0
0.0
-209.0
-137.5
-9.4
-61.8
0.0
0.0
-9.4
-61.8
-44.3
1.6
165.9
347.8
165.9
347.8
0.0
0.0
-20.8
-23.5
-20.8
-23.5
0.0
0.0
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
2017E 2018E
1,266.1 1,482.5 2,365.9 2,754.4 2,841.2 2,940.3 3,070.4 3,201.1 3,292.0 3,376.1
1,266.1 1,482.5 1,635.4 1,771.2 1,849.6 1,926.9 2,015.4
2,111.4 2,166.0 2,212.0
1,189.8 1,393.5 1,565.5 1,657.7 1,688.2 1,709.4 1,736.5 1,768.3 1,800.8 1,833.9
1,131.7 1,306.1 1,450.6 1,531.8 1,550.5 1,565.7 1,591.1 1,623.0 1,655.4 1,688.5
58.1
87.4
114.9
125.9
137.7
143.7
145.3
145.3
145.3
145.3
9.9
19.5
29.4
64.2
103.1
158.9
219.9
283.7
305.4
317.9
46.5
35.7
16.5
16.0
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
19.9
33.7
23.9
33.2
43.2
44.1
45.0
45.9
46.8
47.7
0.0
0.0
796.3 1,088.3
1,100.1 1,125.6 1,172.2 1,211.9 1,251.6 1,292.9
0.0
0.0
638.7
849.6
849.6
875.1
918.9
955.6
993.8 1,033.6
0.0
0.0
61.1
95.0
106.7
106.7
106.7
106.7
106.7
106.7
0.0
0.0
96.5
143.7
143.7
143.7
146.6
149.5
151.0
152.6
0.0
0.0
-65.8
-105.1
-108.4
-112.2
-117.2
-122.1
-125.6
-128.8
-936.4 -1,041.1 -1,567.7 -1,781.6 -1,831.2 -1,913.5 -2,005.2 -2,101.0 -2,157.6 -2,205.9
-354.4
-392.0
-414.7
-405.1
-403.0
-407.0
-413.6
-421.9
-430.3
-438.9
-262.3
-297.3
-321.0
-305.6
-314.5
-321.0
-327.4
-334.0
-340.7
-347.5
0.0
0.0
-270.6
-378.0
-378.0
-385.6
-393.3
-401.1
-409.2
-417.3
-72.8
-88.3
-148.8
-173.0
-179.4
-187.4
-195.6
-203.6
-210.7
-217.4
-82.6
-79.9
-114.7
-140.5
-139.3
-139.4
-139.4
-139.4
-139.4
-139.4
0.0
0.0
-93.2
-117.0
-117.0
-119.3
-121.7
-124.2
-126.6
-129.2
-89.7
-59.5
-33.5
-26.4
-24.8
-23.9
-23.1
-22.3
-21.5
-20.6
-74.6
-124.0
-171.1
-236.0
-275.3
-329.9
-391.0
-454.6
-479.3
-495.6
0.0
0.0
-25.4
-55.4
-88.9
-137.1
-189.7
-244.7
-263.4
-274.2
-74.6
-124.0
-145.7
-180.6
-186.3
-192.8
-201.3
-209.9
-215.9
-221.4
-11.7
-34.5
-71.3
-17.1
-17.8
-18.5
-19.4
-20.4
-20.9
-21.3
318.0
406.9
727.0
955.7
992.2 1,008.3 1,045.8 1,079.8 1,113.4 1,148.8
318.0
406.9
473.7
611.7
653.7
667.1
687.1
710.8
732.9
755.2
0.0
0.0
253.2
344.0
338.5
341.2
358.7
369.0
380.5
393.6
-41.9
-81.2
-166.7
-227.5
-260.4
-265.0
-255.7
-233.0
-239.4
-246.8
-41.9
-81.2
-134.7
-188.3
-221.2
-225.8
-216.5
-193.8
-200.2
-207.7
0.0
0.0
-32.1
-39.2
-39.2
-39.2
-39.2
-39.2
-39.2
-39.2
Cyfrowy Polsat
9
10
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
PLN m
EBIT:
DTH & telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
Balance of financial operations:
Financial income:
Interest income
Gain on investments' disposal
FX gains
Other
Financial costs:
Interest costs
Loss on investments' disposal
FX losses
Amortization of issue costs & provisions
Other
Share in profits (losses) of equity-method affiliates
PBT
Adj PBT
CIT:
Current
Accrued
Gain (loss) on discontinued activities
Minorities
NI
Adj NI
Fig. 9 Cyfrowy Polsat; Income statement (continued)
2005
-3.7
-3.7
0.0
-33.4
3.3
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-36.8
-15.2
0.0
-21.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-37.1
-37.1
2.4
0.0
2.4
0.0
0.2
-34.5
-34.5
2006
41.7
41.7
0.0
29.1
43.2
3.0
14.7
25.4
0.1
-14.2
-14.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
70.8
70.8
-15.1
0.0
-15.1
0.0
0.0
55.7
55.7
2007
145.1
145.1
0.0
-5.0
19.0
6.2
0.4
12.4
0.0
-23.9
-13.3
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-9.7
0.0
140.2
140.2
-26.8
-26.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
113.4
113.4
2008
324.3
324.3
0.0
9.4
33.3
8.4
0.0
17.6
7.2
-24.0
-12.2
0.0
-4.7
0.0
-7.0
0.0
333.7
333.7
-63.9
-50.2
-13.7
0.0
0.0
269.8
269.8
2009
276.1
276.1
0.0
8.4
14.3
6.0
0.3
7.5
0.4
-6.0
-4.1
0.0
-1.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
284.3
284.3
-54.0
-57.3
3.3
0.0
0.0
230.3
230.3
2010
325.8
325.8
0.0
-4.5
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-2.5
0.0
-2.8
0.0
-0.4
0.0
321.3
321.3
-62.8
-25.7
-37.1
0.0
0.0
258.4
258.4
2011
560.3
339.1
221.2
-370.4
13.1
10.7
0.0
0.2
2.2
-383.5
-142.3
0.0
-188.2
-41.2
-11.9
2.2
192.0
361.4
-31.9
-54.3
22.5
0.0
0.0
160.2
297.4
2012E
728.2
423.4
304.8
-105.1
160.0
12.3
0.0
147.7
0.0
-265.1
-192.1
0.0
-44.4
-24.1
-4.5
3.0
626.2
521.5
-105.3
-105.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
520.9
436.1
2013E
731.8
432.5
299.3
-175.2
15.0
15.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-190.2
-162.1
0.0
0.0
-24.1
-4.0
3.2
559.8
559.8
-105.8
-105.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
454.0
454.0
2014E
743.3
441.3
302.0
-149.2
19.6
19.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-168.7
-140.6
0.0
0.0
-24.1
-4.0
3.2
597.3
597.3
-112.9
-112.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
484.4
484.4
2015E
790.2
470.6
319.5
-127.5
18.7
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
-146.3
-118.2
0.0
0.0
-24.1
-4.0
3.2
665.8
665.8
-125.9
-125.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
539.9
539.9
2016E
846.8
517.0
329.8
-97.2
26.0
26.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-123.2
-106.6
0.0
0.0
-12.6
-4.0
3.2
752.7
752.7
-142.4
-142.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
610.3
610.3
2017E
874.1
532.7
341.3
-77.1
41.1
41.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-118.2
-106.6
0.0
0.0
-7.6
-4.0
3.2
800.2
800.2
-151.4
-151.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
648.7
648.7
2018E
902.0
547.6
354.4
-20.9
28.5
28.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-49.4
-42.5
0.0
0.0
-2.9
-4.0
3.2
884.3
884.3
-167.4
-167.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
716.9
716.9
Cyfrowy Polsat
????????????????????????
????????????????????????
11
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
PLN m
Net income (losses)
Total corrections:
Share of minorities in net income (loss)
Share in (net income) loss of equity-method affiliates
IFRS2 stock option costs
D&A
Cash payment for film and sport licenses
Amortization of film and sport licenses
Change in own production
Programming assets sold
FX (gains) losses
Interests
(Gain) loss on investments
Change in non-CIT reserves
Change in NWC and deferrals:
Change in inventories
Change in trading A/R
Change in trading A/P
Change in STB deposits
Change in deferred assets and liabilities
Change in ST non-trading A/R and A/P
Change in capitalized distribution commissions
Decrease (increase) in leased STBs
Non-cash CIT
Other
Operating cash flow
Capex on intangibles and tangible fixed assets
Acquisition of investment real estate
Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash
Other
Investing cash flow
Net equity issue proceeds
Credits, loans, bonds
Interests & provisions
Dividends
Share buy-backs
Other
Financing cash flow
Effect of FX changes on cash balances
Total cash flow
Fig. 10 Cyfrowy Polsat; Cash flow
2005
-34.5
97.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
50.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.3
11.9
0.0
0.0
-6.2
-9.0
-12.4
-10.7
-3.1
15.2
33.0
-19.1
18.1
2.4
1.8
62.7
-13.2
0.0
0.0
11.5
-1.6
10.0
0.3
-18.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
-8.5
0.0
52.6
2006
55.7
25.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-25.5
11.0
-14.7
0.5
1.8
-27.6
-4.1
41.1
-6.8
19.9
6.1
-26.7
11.9
-15.1
22.8
81.3
-27.7
-28.8
0.0
17.7
-38.8
0.0
16.4
-13.2
0.0
0.0
-0.4
2.8
0.0
45.4
2007
113.4
-2.2
0.0
0.0
10.2
20.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-16.0
7.0
0.5
18.3
-45.0
-72.0
-15.8
83.5
-1.6
29.0
-19.7
-48.4
7.4
0.0
-5.4
111.2
-54.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
-54.4
0.2
-1.6
-11.7
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-15.7
-0.3
40.9
2008
269.8
67.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-13.0
3.8
0.0
-14.5
35.4
35.0
-40.5
-26.9
2.4
69.3
-9.5
5.6
0.0
-13.7
46.3
337.5
-76.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
-76.8
0.0
-108.2
-13.5
-37.6
0.0
-6.1
-165.4
0.4
95.7
2009
230.3
65.8
0.0
0.1
0.0
41.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.1
-1.9
-0.1
7.5
-15.0
-27.1
-2.1
-42.5
-3.6
75.0
-20.1
5.4
0.0
3.3
15.9
296.1
-149.7
0.0
-24.8
0.4
-174.1
0.0
-63.0
-4.2
-201.2
0.0
-0.3
-268.8
-0.2
-147.0
2010
2011
258.4
160.2
134.5
416.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.2
0.0
0.0
81.2
166.7
0.0
-177.2
0.0
169.5
0.0
6.5
0.0
3.7
0.1
170.4
1.3
171.8
2.0
1.2
11.7
10.0
4.6
-146.7
-48.0
-3.4
-61.0
-63.7
66.7
-56.2
-3.3
-2.8
33.0
-72.4
30.6
47.1
-13.4
4.8
0.0
0.0
50.8
-2.3
-17.3
44.9
392.9
576.4
-241.0
-295.0
0.0
0.0
-33.3 -2,348.7
1.4
-12.4
-272.8 -2,656.1
0.0
0.0
-30.1 2,614.8
-2.2
-289.9
-152.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.5
2.5
-191.8 2,327.4
-0.1
2.2
-71.8
249.9
2012E
520.9
361.9
0.0
-3.0
0.0
227.5
-170.0
206.1
4.1
4.6
-103.3
179.7
0.0
1.8
34.1
-6.1
-13.9
16.1
0.0
13.6
15.7
8.7
0.0
0.0
-19.7
882.7
-261.0
0.0
-141.9
12.3
-390.6
0.0
-346.3
-192.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-538.4
0.0
-46.2
2013E
454.0
392.0
0.0
-3.2
0.0
260.4
-199.3
196.2
5.0
0.0
0.0
147.1
0.0
3.0
-20.4
-2.6
-8.3
3.6
0.0
1.1
6.5
-20.8
0.0
0.0
3.2
846.1
-240.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
-225.0
0.0
-200.0
-162.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-362.1
0.0
259.0
2014E
484.4
363.7
0.0
-3.2
0.0
265.0
-203.3
200.1
-5.0
0.0
0.0
121.1
0.0
3.5
-17.7
-2.0
-9.4
4.1
0.0
-0.5
0.7
-10.5
0.0
0.0
3.2
848.1
-258.1
0.0
0.0
19.6
-238.5
0.0
-320.0
-140.6
-181.6
0.0
0.0
-642.3
0.0
-32.7
2015E
539.9
334.0
0.0
-3.2
0.0
255.7
-207.4
204.1
-6.0
0.0
0.0
99.4
0.0
4.6
-16.4
-2.6
-12.4
5.4
0.0
-7.7
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
873.9
-248.7
0.0
0.0
18.7
-230.0
0.0
-340.2
-118.2
-193.8
0.0
0.0
-652.2
0.0
-8.2
2016E
610.3
283.0
0.0
-3.2
0.0
233.0
-211.5
208.2
-7.0
0.0
0.0
80.6
0.0
4.6
-24.8
-2.8
-12.4
5.4
0.0
-8.7
0.9
-7.2
0.0
0.0
3.2
893.4
-226.1
0.0
0.0
26.0
-200.1
0.0
0.0
-106.6
-216.0
0.0
0.0
-322.6
0.0
370.7
2017E 2018E
648.7
716.9
279.2
231.2
0.0
0.0
-3.2
-3.2
0.0
0.0
239.4
246.8
-215.8
-220.1
212.4
216.6
-8.0
-9.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
65.5
13.9
0.0
0.0
3.2
2.9
-17.4
-20.1
-0.7
-0.8
-8.6
-8.0
3.8
3.5
0.0
0.0
-8.3
-11.8
0.6
0.6
-4.1
-3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
3.2
928.0
948.1
-232.4
-249.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
41.1
28.5
-191.3
-221.1
0.0
0.0
0.0 -1,439.8
-106.6
-42.5
-244.1
-259.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-350.7 -1,741.8
0.0
0.0
385.9 -1,014.8
Cyfrowy Polsat
12
Dynamics, yoy
Sales:
DTH & telecommunication services:
DTH subscription fees:
Familijny
Mini
Other user sales
Hardware sales
Miscellaneous
TV broadcasting:
TV ads + sponsoring
Carriage fees
Other
EBITDA:
DTH & telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
EBIT
PBT
NI
Adj NI
Trading A/R turnover days
Inventory turnover days
Trading A/P turnover days
Cash conversion days
(NWC + net deferrals)/ Sales
Current ratio
Quick ratio
CAPEX/ Sales
Interest bearing debt/ Equity
Interest bearing debt/ EBITDA
Net debt/ EBITDA
EBITDA/ Interest costs
Margins
EBITDA margin:
DTH & telecommunication services
TV broadcasting
EBIT margin
Pre-tax margin
Net margin
Adj net margin
ROE
ROA
Fig. 11 Cyfrowy Polsat; Ratios
75%
75%
103%
103%
n.a.
n.a.
47%
3%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
61%
61%
n.a.
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
20
42
50
12
-7%
0.6
0.5
6%
n.m.
3.2
1.7
5.3
15.1%
15.1%
n.a.
8.5%
14.3%
11.3%
11.3%
n.m.
n.m.
16.5%
16.5%
n.a.
-1.3%
-13.2%
-12.2%
-12.2%
n.m.
n.m.
2006
54%
54%
38%
38%
n.a.
n.a.
243%
8%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-12%
-12%
n.a.
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
24
45
65
3
-9%
0.4
0.3
5%
n.m.
5.3
3.9
3.1
2005
2008
2009
2010
20.8%
20.8%
n.a.
18.2%
17.6%
14.2%
14.2%
n.m.
n.m.
31.7%
31.7%
n.a.
29.5%
30.4%
24.6%
24.6%
152.2%
40.6%
25.1%
25.1%
n.a.
21.8%
22.5%
18.2%
18.2%
74.8%
29.8%
27.5%
27.5%
n.a.
22.0%
21.7%
17.4%
17.4%
68.9%
29.0%
61%
38%
15%
17%
61%
38%
15%
17%
89%
48%
22%
17%
84%
46%
20%
15%
6,904%
90%
83%
50%
n.a.
n.a.
258%
97%
7%
-8%
-53%
-23%
-36%
-27%
2%
69%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
123%
110%
-9%
28%
123%
110%
-9%
28%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
248%
123%
-15%
18%
98%
138%
-15%
13%
103%
138%
-15%
12%
103%
138%
-15%
12%
17
22
25
29
59
55
42
52
72
70
42
42
4
7
25
38
-1%
-4%
-2%
-3%
1.1
1.4
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.6
7%
7%
12%
16%
3.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.4 net cash net cash net cash
12.5
28.4
77.4
160.6
2007
30.7%
29.0%
31.8%
23.7%
8.1%
6.8%
12.6%
25.6%
14.2%
60%
10%
12%
11%
31%
51%
-54%
-29%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
79%
16%
n.a.
72%
-40%
-38%
15%
31
41
29
42
7%
1.3
1.1
12%
1.5
3.8
3.4
5.1
2011
34.7%
34.5%
31.6%
26.4%
22.7%
18.9%
15.8%
20.2%
12.0%
16%
8%
6%
6%
10%
118%
-3%
39%
37%
33%
55%
49%
31%
29%
36%
30%
226%
225%
47%
34
37
22
49
5%
1.3
1.0
9%
1.0
2.4
2.2
5.0
2012E
34.9%
35.3%
30.8%
25.8%
19.7%
16.0%
16.0%
17.2%
11.2%
3%
4%
2%
1%
9%
61%
-6%
30%
1%
0%
12%
0%
4%
7%
-2%
0%
-11%
-13%
4%
34
37
23
48
6%
1.4
1.2
8%
0.7
2.1
1.6
6.1
2013E
34.3%
34.6%
30.3%
25.3%
20.3%
16.5%
16.5%
16.0%
10.9%
3%
4%
1%
1%
4%
54%
-3%
2%
2%
3%
0%
0%
2%
2%
1%
2%
7%
7%
7%
34
36
23
47
6%
1.3
1.1
9%
0.6
1.8
1.3
7.2
2014E
34.1%
34.1%
30.6%
25.7%
21.7%
17.6%
17.6%
16.1%
11.4%
4%
5%
2%
2%
1%
38%
-3%
2%
4%
5%
0%
2%
4%
3%
5%
6%
11%
11%
11%
34
35
23
46
6%
2.1
1.8
8%
0.4
1.4
0.9
8.8
2015E
33.7%
33.7%
30.4%
26.5%
23.5%
19.1%
19.1%
16.4%
11.8%
4%
5%
2%
2%
0%
29%
-4%
2%
3%
4%
0%
2%
3%
3%
3%
7%
13%
13%
13%
34
34
23
45
7%
2.7
2.4
7%
0.4
1.3
0.6
10.1
2016E
2018E
33.8%
33.8%
30.4%
26.6%
24.3%
19.7%
19.7%
15.8%
11.3%
34.0%
34.1%
30.4%
26.7%
26.2%
21.2%
21.2%
15.8%
12.0%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
8%
4%
-4%
-4%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
0%
0%
1%
1%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
6%
11%
6%
11%
6%
11%
34
34
33
32
23
23
44
44
7%
7%
1.0
1.7
0.9
1.4
7%
7%
0.3
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.2 net cash
10.4
27.0
2017E
Cyfrowy Polsat
????????????????????????
????????????????????????
Source: Company, DM IDMSA estimates
DTH blended ARPU (PLN)
yoy change
DTH ARPU: Familijny package (PLN)
yoy change
DTH ARPU: Mini package (PLN)
yoy change
Churn: DTH (blended)
Programming costs/ DTH subscription revenues
DTH subscribers, eop (m)
yoy change
DTH net add (ths.)
DTH net add - Familijny (ths.)
DTH net add - Mini (ths.)
DTH gross add (ths.)
DTH churning subscribers (ths.)
Share in DTH market
Share in DTH market net add
Share in pay-TV market
RGU, eop (m)
yoy change
RGU net add (ths.)
Fig. 12 Cyfrowy Polsat; Ratios (continued)
2005
30.2
2%
30.2
2%
0.0
n.a.
12.2%
17%
656.7
67%
263.5
263.5
0.0
321.6
58.1
45.4%
77.4%
11.3%
656.7
67%
263.5
2006
34.3
13%
35.9
19%
2.0
n.a.
5.4%
19%
1,273.6
94%
616.9
512.2
104.7
663.0
46.1
56.8%
77.6%
18.9%
1,273.6
94%
616.9
2007
34.7
1%
37.8
5%
8.4
323%
5.7%
23%
2,068.3
62%
794.7
658.1
136.6
885.3
90.7
61.9%
72.2%
25.9%
2,068.3
62%
794.7
2008
35.3
2%
39.4
4%
8.6
2%
6.0%
23%
2,727.0
32%
658.7
459.2
199.5
797.1
138.4
58.6%
50.3%
29.1%
2,766.0
34%
697.7
2009
34.6
-2%
40.3
2%
9.2
7%
8.0%
30%
3,202.3
17%
475.3
323.4
152.0
704.9
229.6
56.4%
46.4%
30.5%
3,231.3
17%
465.3
2010
35.8
4%
42.1
4%
11.1
21%
10.3%
28%
3,436.2
7%
233.9
110.6
123.3
567.7
333.8
55.3%
43.9%
30.9%
3,557.7
10%
326.4
2011
37.4
4%
44.2
5%
12.7
14%
9.8%
26%
3,551.7
3%
115.4
64.9
50.6
457.3
341.9
54.2%
34.1%
31.1%
3,767.7
6%
210.0
2012E
38.9
4%
46.1
4%
13.4
5%
9.8%
24%
3,581.7
1%
30.0
-21.0
51.0
378.1
348.1
52.3%
10.0%
30.5%
3,870.7
3%
103.0
2013E
39.3
1%
47.0
2%
13.7
2%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
5.0
-35.0
40.0
363.4
358.4
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,016.7
4%
146.0
2014E
39.7
1%
48.0
2%
13.8
1%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
0.0
-20.0
20.0
358.7
358.7
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,156.7
3%
140.0
2015E
40.3
2%
48.9
2%
13.8
0%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
358.7
358.7
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,246.7
2%
90.0
2016E
41.1
2%
49.9
2%
13.8
0%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
358.7
358.7
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,316.7
2%
70.0
2017E
41.8
2%
50.9
2%
13.8
0%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
358.7
358.7
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,356.7
1%
40.0
2018E
42.6
2%
51.9
2%
13.8
0%
10.0%
24%
3,586.7
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
358.7
358.7
52.0%
10.0%
30.3%
4,366.7
0%
10.0
Cyfrowy Polsat
13
BASIC DEFINITIONS
A/R turnover (in days) = 365/(sales/average A/R))
Inventory turnover (in days) = 365/(COGS/average inventory))
A/P turnover (in days) = 365/(COGS/average A/P))
Current ratio = ((current assets – ST deferred assets)/current liabilities)
Quick ratio = ((current assets – ST deferred assets – inventory)/current liabilities)
Interest coverage = (pre-tax profit before extraordinary items + interest payable/interest payable)
Gross margin = gross profit on sales/sales
EBITDA margin = EBITDA/sales
EBIT margin = EBIT/sales
Pre-tax margin = pre-tax profit/sales
Net margin = net profit/sales
ROE = net profit/average equity
ROA = (net income + interest payable)/average assets
EV = market capitalization + interest bearing debt – cash and equivalents
EPS = net profit/ no. of shares outstanding
CE = net profit + depreciation
Dividend yield (gross) = pre-tax DPS/stock market price
Cash sales = accrual sales corrected for the change in A/R
Cash operating expenses = accrual operating expenses corrected for the changes in inventories and A/P,
depreciation, cash taxes and changes in the deferred taxes
DM IDM S.A. generally values the covered non bank companies via two methods: comparative method and
DCF method (discounted cash flows). The advantage of the former is the fact that it incorporates the current
market assessment of the value of the company’s peers. The weakness of the comparative method is the risk
that the valuation benchmark may be mispriced. The advantage of the DCF method is its independence from
the current market valuation of the comparable companies. The weakness of this method is its high sensitivity
to undertaken assumptions, especially those related to the residual value calculation. Please note that we also
resort to other valuation techniques (e.g. NAV-, DDM- or SOTP-based), should it prove appropriate in a given case.
Banks
Net Interest Margin (NIM) = net interest income/average assets
NIM Adjusted = (net interest income adjusted for SWAPs)/average assets
Non interest income = fees&commissions + result on financial operations (trading gains) + FX gains
Interest Spread = (interest income/average interest earning assets)/ (interest cost/average interest bearing liabilities)
Cost/Income = (general costs + depreciation + other operating costs)/ (profit on banking activity + other
operating income)
ROE = net profit/average equity
ROA = net income/average assets
Non performing loans (NPL) = loans in ‘substandard’, ‘doubtful’ and ‘lost’ categories
NPL coverrage ratio = loan loss provisions/NPL
Net provision charge = provisions created – provisions released
DM IDM S.A. generally values the covered banks via two methods: comparative method and fundamental target
fair P/E and target fair P/BV multiples method. The advantage of the former is the fact that it incorporates
the current market assessment of the value of the company’s peers. The weakness of the comparative
method is the risk that the valuation benchmark may be mispriced. The advantage of the fundamental target
fair P/E and target fair P/BV multiples method is its independence of the current market valuation of the comparable
companies. The weakness of this method is its high sensitivity to undertaken assumptions, especially those
related to the residual value calculation.
Assumptions used in valuation can change, influencing thereby the level of the valuation. Among the most
important assumptions are: GDP growth, forecasted level of inflation, changes in interest rates and currency
prices, employment level and change in wages, demand on the analysed company products, raw material prices,
competition, standing of the main customers and suppliers, legislation changes, etc.
Changes in the environment of the analysed company are monitored by analysts involved in the preparation
of the recommendation, estimated, incorporated in valuation and published in the recommendation whenever
needed.
KEY TO INVESTMENT RANKINGS
This is a guide to expected price performance in absolute terms over the next 12 months:
Buy – fundamentally undervalued (upside to 12M EFV in excess of the cost of equity) + catalysts which should close the valuation gap identified;
Hold – either (i) fairly priced, or (ii) fundamentally undervalued/overvalued but lacks catalysts which could close the valuation gap;
Sell – fundamentally overvalued (12M EFV < current share price + 1-year cost of equity) + catalysts which should close the valuation gap identified.
This is a guide to expected relative price performance:
Overweight – expected to perform better than the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
Neutral – expected to perform in line with the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
Underweight – expected to perform worse than the benchmark (WIG) over the next quarter in relative terms
The recommendation tracker presents the performance of DM IDMSA’s recommendations. A recommendation expires on the day it is altered or on the day 12 months after its issuance, whichever comes first.
Relative performance compares the rate of return on a given recommended stock in the period of the recommendation’s validity (i.e. from the date of issuance to the date of alteration or – in case of maintained
recommendations – from the date of issuance to the current date) in a relation to the rate of return on the benchmark in this time period. The WIG index constitutes the benchmark. For recommendations that expire
by an alteration or are maintained, the ending values used to calculate their absolute and relative performance are: the stock closing price on the day the recommendation expires/ is maintained and the closing value
of the benchmark on that date. For recommendations that expire via a passage of time, the ending values used to calculate their absolute and relative performance are: the average of the stock closing prices for the day the
recommendation elapses and four directly preceding sessions and the average of the benchmark’s closing values for the day the recommendation expires and four directly preceding sessions.
Distribution of IDM’s current recommendations
Numbers
Percentage
Buy
25
32%
Hold
42
54%
Sell
7
9%
Suspended
4
5%
Under revision
0
0%
Suspended
4
5%
Under revision
0
0%
Distribution of IDM’s current market relative recommended weightings
Numbers
Percentage
Overweight
23
29%
Neutral
26
33%
Underweight
25
32%
Distribution of IDM’s current recommendations for companies that were within the last 12M IDM
customers in investment banking
Numbers
Percentage
Buy
1
14%
Hold
4
57%
Sell
1
14%
Suspended
1
14%
Under revision
0
0%
Distribution of IDM’s current market relative recommended weightings for the companies that were
within the last 12M IDM customers in investment banking
Numbers
Percentage
Overweight
2
29%
Neutral
0
0%
Underweight
4
57%
Suspended
1
14%
Under revision
0
0%
LT fundamental recommendation tracker
Recommendation
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
Performance
Relative
performance
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
12M EFV
(PLN)
27.02.2009
22.07.2009
12.10.2009
20.04.2010
14.06.2010
16.05.2011
20.06.2011
13.10.2011
02.09.2012
Not later than
02.09.2013
-
-2%
36%
-18%
4%
0%
16%
-4%
-6%
-9%
7%
96%
-10%
-30%
-8%
6%
-2%
-4%
15%
-13%
0%
13.90
13.20
13.39
14.15
13.70
14.50
14.89
12.70
12.60
13.00
14.00
14.20
15.30
13.50
14.20
12.74
13.41
13.80
14.05
14.42
15.11
16.45
17.65
17.53
15.76
14.40
14.44
13.40
14.40
14.75
14.53
15.70
15.00
14.90
14.99
14.90
14.25
14.50
14.17
14.18
13.97
14.55
17.00
17.00
16.50
15.88
15.50
15.00
16.09
16.23
16.89
16.20
16.08
16.29
15.00
14.76
15.15
15.71
14.00
13.80
13.50
12.79
14.20
13.99
13.80
13.91
13.58
14.00
14.64
14.80
13.76
18.30
18.30
18.00
17.90
18.00
18.00
18.00
15.60
15.60
15.60
15.60
16.60
16.60
15.80
15.80
14.00
15.80
15.80
15.80
15.80
15.10
15.10
16.20
16.20
16.20
16.20
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
16.60
16.60
15.50
15.00
15.00
15.00
15.00
15.00
15.00
15.00
15.00
17.90
17.90
17.90
17.90
17.90
17.90
17.90
19.00
19.00
19.00
19.00
16.50
16.50
15.20
15.20
15.20
15.20
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
14.50
→
↓
↓
↑
→
→
↓
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
↓
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
-
-
14.67
15.30
↑
Cyfrowy Polsat
Buy
Hold
Sell
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
19.06.2008
27.02.2009
22.07.2009
12.10.2009
20.04.2010
14.06.2010
16.05.2011
20.06.2011
13.10.2011
02.09.2012
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
08.03.2009
11.03.2009
15.03.2009
05.04.2009
25.04.2009
17.05.2009
08.06.2009
08.07.2009
02.08.2009
31.08.2009
21.10.2009
14.12.2009
07.01.2010
03.02.2010
01.03.2010
29.03.2010
17.05.2010
14.07.2010
19.07.2010
21.07.2010
31.08.2010
12.10.2010
20.10.2010
15.11.2010
15.12.2010
19.12.2010
02.01.2011
28.01.2011
01.03.2011
24.03.2011
15.04.2011
20.04.2011
24.07.2011
25.07.2011
31.08.2011
03.10.2011
24.10.2011
14.11.2011
11.12.2011
01.01.2012
25.01.2012
29.02.2012
20.03.2012
15.04.2012
29.04.2012
15.05.2012
21.06.2012
17.07.2012
19.07.2012
-
-
→
-
02.10.2012
Market-relative recommendation tracker
Relative recommendation
Cyfrowy Polsat
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↓
↑
→
↓
→
↑
↑
↓
→
→
→
↓
→
↑
→
↑
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
↓
→
→
→
→
→
↓
→
↑
→
→
→
→
↓
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
↑
→
↓
↑
→
↓
↓
Issue date
Reiteration date
Expiry date
19.06.2008
27.02.2009
11.03.2009
15.03.2009
25.04.2009
08.06.2009
08.07.2009
22.07.2009
21.10.2009
07.01.2010
01.03.2010
14.06.2010
15.11.2010
15.12.2010
15.04.2011
16.05.2011
03.10.2011
29.04.2012
21.06.2012
17.07.2012
02.09.2012
02.10.2012
29.06.2008
10.07.2008
28.07.2008
13.08.2008
31.08.2008
28.09.2008
22.10.2008
29.10.2008
30.11.2008
11.01.2009
25.01.2009
08.02.2009
08.03.2009
05.04.2009
17.05.2009
02.08.2009
31.08.2009
12.10.2009
14.12.2009
03.02.2010
29.03.2010
20.04.2010
17.05.2010
14.07.2010
19.07.2010
21.07.2010
31.08.2010
12.10.2010
20.10.2010
19.12.2010
02.01.2011
28.01.2011
01.03.2011
24.03.2011
20.04.2011
20.06.2011
24.07.2011
25.07.2011
31.08.2011
13.10.2011
24.10.2011
14.11.2011
11.12.2011
01.01.2012
25.01.2012
29.02.2012
20.03.2012
15.04.2012
15.05.2012
19.07.2012
-
27.02.2009
11.03.2009
15.03.2009
25.04.2009
08.06.2009
08.07.2009
22.07.2009
21.10.2009
07.01.2010
01.03.2010
14.06.2010
15.11.2010
15.12.2010
15.04.2011
16.05.2011
03.10.2011
29.04.2012
21.06.2012
17.07.2012
02.09.2012
02.10.2012
Not later than
02.10.2013
Price at issue/
reiteration (PLN)
Relative
performance
13.90
13.20
13.39
14.15
13.70
14.50
14.89
12.70
12.60
13.00
14.00
14.20
15.30
13.50
14.20
12.74
13.41
13.80
14.05
14.42
15.11
16.45
17.65
17.53
15.76
14.40
14.44
13.40
14.40
14.75
14.53
15.70
15.00
14.90
14.99
14.90
14.25
14.50
14.17
14.18
13.97
14.55
17.00
17.00
16.50
15.88
15.50
15.00
16.09
16.23
16.89
16.20
16.08
16.29
15.00
14.76
15.15
15.71
14.00
13.80
13.50
12.79
14.20
13.99
13.80
13.91
13.58
14.00
14.64
14.80
13.76
14.67
96%
-12%
6%
-14%
-1%
18%
-3%
-32%
-3%
6%
-2%
-12%
15%
-9%
7%
14%
-12%
1%
4%
-9%
0%
-
Institutional sales
Tomasz Dudź
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 14
[email protected]
Marcin Kozerski
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 12
[email protected]
Bartłomiej Chorzępa
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 11
[email protected]
Piotr Kopeć
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 13
[email protected]
Marcin Fereniec
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 23
[email protected]
Zbigniew Rębisz
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 47
[email protected]
Research
Sobiesław Pająk, CFA
(Equity strategy, Media & Entertainment,
IT – software & services)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 70
[email protected]
Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA
(Construction materials,
Consumer staples & discretionary, Utilities)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 78
[email protected]
Maciej Wewiórski
(Commodities, Residential construction, Real estate)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 62
[email protected]
Michał Sobolewski, CFA
(Financials)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 77
[email protected]
This report is for information purposes only. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed in the report constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities
referred herein. The opinions expressed in the report reflect independent, current judgement of DM IDM S.A. Securities. This report was prepared with due diligence and
scrutiny. The information used in the report is based on all public sources such as press and branch publications, company’s financial statements, current and periodic
reports, as well as meetings and telephone conversations with company’s representatives prior to the date of report's release. We believe the above mentioned sources
of information to be reliable, however we do not guarantee their accuracy and completeness. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent our judgment as
of the date of the issue. The legal entity supervising DM IDM S.A. is Financial Supervision Commission in Warsaw (KNF in Polish abbreviation).
Jakub Viscardi
(Telco, Consumer staples & discretionary,
IT – hardware distribution)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 69
[email protected]
IDM does not take any responsibility for decisions taken on the basis of this report and opinions stated in it. Investors bear all responsibility for investment decisions taken
on the basis of the contents of this report. The report is intended exclusively for private use of investors – customers of IDM. No part or excerpt of the report may be
redistributed, reproduced or conveyed in any manner or form written or oral without the prior written consent of IDM. This report is released to customers the moment
it is issued and the whole report is made available to the public one month after the issuance.
Łukasz Prokopiuk, CFA
(Chemicals, Oil & gas)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 72
[email protected]
The analyst(s) responsible for covering the securities in this report receives compensation based upon the overall profitability of IDM which includes profits derived from
investment banking activities, although the analyst compensation is not directly related thereto.
Andrzej Bernatowicz
(Construction, Video games)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 74
[email protected]
IDM releases analytical reports via mail or electronic mail to selected clients (professional clients).
Apart from mentioned above, there are no ties of any kind between DM IDM S.A., the analyst/analysts involved in the preparation of the report and his/her relatives and the company/
companies analyzed in this publication, especially in the form of: i) offering of financial instruments in the primary market or/and Initial Public Offer within 12 months preceding
the issue of this report, ii) purchasing and selling of financial instruments for own account due to tasks connected with organization of the regulated market, iii) purchasing
and selling of financial instruments due to underwriting agreements and iv) the role of a market maker for securities analysed by IDM. The analysed company/companies
does/do not possess DM IDM S.A. shares.
IDM has not signed with the company/companies any contracts for recommendation writing. Investors should assume that DM IDM S.A. is seeking or will seek business
relationships with the company/companies described in this report. Excerpts of this report were shown to the analyzed company/companies before the distribution
of the report to clients.
Michał Czerwiński
(Associate)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 64
[email protected]
Bernard Gaworczyk
(Associate)
tel.: +48 (22) 489 94 75
[email protected]
Copyright © 2012 by DM IDMSA
Dom Maklerski IDMSA
Mały Rynek 7
31-041 Kraków
www.idmsa.pl
Information: (+48) 0 801 900 201