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Załącznik B-1
Epizod filmowy EUR-OCEANS
‘Socioeconomic aspects of climate change on the basis of the Baltic Sea’
Scenariusz (draft – w trakcie konsultacji naukowych tekstu)
Całkowity czas emisji: 6-8 minut
1. Wstęp + opis pochodzenia działania - Sieci EurOceans
Tekst dla lektora:
The Baltic is a very young sea, geologically speaking. It is the largest brackish water area in
the world, with a surface of 415 000 km2. The reservoir is subject to various global influence
such as increased emissions of greenhouse gases. This causes changes in the environment, in
the place called by more than 100 million people home. This area is one of the 7 geographical
systems of interest to the European Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystem Analysis –
EUROCEANS.
2. Wprowadzenie do zmian – grafika (mapa) + ujęcia morza. Tekst dla lektora:
The Baltic coastal countries are: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia,
Poland, Russia, Sweden. The climate of the Baltic Sea has been investigated for the last two
hundred years using the annual means of air and sea temperature, sea level, North Atlantic
Oscillation and sea ice data. Human activities have had a growing influence on the Baltic Sea
and its ecology, and these influences have gained force as human population increases and its
agricultural and industrial activities intensify.
But what evidence caused by natural and human-driven activities do we see ??
Every change perceived by people either helps or aggravates every-day living. Either way it
causes certain social consequences.
3. Ujęcie globalne konsekwencji zmian klimatu (głównie materiały archiwalne)
Tekst dla lektora:
Globally speaking climate warming causes floods, droughts, weather anomalies, declining
crop yields, water shortages, human and fauna migrations, all that predicting to cost several %
of world’s GDP per year. New circumstances also change people’s attitudes towards the
environment, open market access for a range of eco-products and services, spur the search for
alternative sources of energy and create new paths for worldwide transport.
4. Bałtyk – ujęcia z WybrzeŜa Polski, Łotwy i Estonii
Tekst dla lektora:
We all know there is a warming global trend, but the trend is not equal for all the parts of the
world, and for areas like the Baltic and Northern Seas it’s larger. Annual mean temperatures
for the Baltic Sea basin rose by almost 2 degrees Celsius since 1870. And thus there has been
a general tendency toward milder sea-ice conditions here during the past century. The number
of annual winter and spring ice-days has decreased. The biologists see that projected decrease
of ice cover by the end of the 21st century shows the Bothnian Gulf and Gulfs of Finland and
Riga becoming on average ice free. The increase of water temperature may also increase
bacterial activity, which can affect nutrient cycling and mineralization of surface waters.
These changes may also have an influence on phytoplankton species composition and primary
production.
5. Wywiad z Prof. Ragnarem Elmgrenem z Uniwersytetu w Sztokholmie (lub innym
naukowcem) – materiał zdjęciowy MIR (15-50 sekund)
INTERVIEW WITH A Prof. Ragnar Elmgren, Department of Systems Ecology, University of
Stockholm
6. Przyczyny środowiskowe- ujęcia z WybrzeŜa Polski, Łotwy i Estonii (w tym podwodne)
Tekst dla lektora:
Hydrographers see that decrease of salinity projected in some areas have a conspicuous
influence on the plankton composition. Furthermore data shows the North Atlantic Oscillation
has been changing. Variations in the North Atlantic Index are proven to impact biological,
chemical and physical conditions prevailing in the Baltic. Decrease in frequency and volume
of water inflow from the Atlantic causes changes in hydrographic conditions and plankton
communities composition from abundantly inflowing Pseudocalanus sp. to Acartia sp. and
Temora sp. These zooplankton community changes cause fluctuations in feeding patterns for
zooplanktivorous sprat and herring which again influences the growth and reproduction
conditions of predatory cods. Harder conditions for spawning biomass of cod stocks are
commercially most important for the Baltic States’ fishery, fish processing and their foreign
trade. And here we have a clear human influence on fishery-dependent communities.
7. Wywiad z rybakiem (Polska, Łotwa lub Estonia) nt. konsekwencji zmian klimatu lub
pojawiania się gatunków migrujących (15-50 sekund)
8. Relacje przemysł – rolnictwo – gospodarka – polityka: ujęcia z WybrzeŜa Polski, Łotwy i
Estonii (w tym podwodne)
Tekst dla lektora:
There is another impact - Human activities have resulted in emission and discharge of a
number of chemical contaminating substances produced internationally for either industrial or
moreover agricultural purposes. Chemical substances drain into the Sea being carried often
hundreds of kilometers by river waters. These substances cause changes in ecosystems
worldwide causing tropical coral reef bleaching and in the Baltic modifying chemical water
contents what quickly results in changes of spawning areas for instance. Climate change does
and will affect the recruitment of fish stocks. Sprat eggs for instance are affected by poor
oxygen conditions in warming waters. All these changes make the fisheries knowledge passed
from grandfather to father and son obsolete which is bound to result in generational tensions
and growing unwillingness to fisheries and fisheries sciences.
A general trend of increasing cloud cover over Northern Europe has also been observed. And
of course sea level variability. Scientific data shows the sea level rise of 1.7 mm per year in
the southeastern Baltic. Here, in contrary to the North, the beaches are sandy and susceptible
to sea level rise, ready to influence the tourism industry, to change harbor canal
configurations and to convert peninsulas into islands. Relevant reactions of the inhabitants
have been and further will influence the politics, causing more frequent occurrence of
ecological issues in programs of political parties and impelling the decision makers to change
attitude towards ecological groups and movements.
Tu ujęcia z WybrzeŜa polskiego:
- zatopiony dwunastowieczny port na Zatoce Puckiej + ewentualnie przystań w Dębkach lub
kościół w Trzęsaczu
Overwhelming evidence of climate change in the region – shots of an underwater 12h century
harbour in the Puck Bay
and/or Dębki Harbour put in jeopardy by sea level rise as an example of possible drastic
influence on the community’s wellbeing, job market etc
- wywiad z Prof. Janem Marcinem Węsławskim (15-50 sekund)
INTERVIEW WITH Prof. Jan Marcin Weslawski, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of
Sciences
And yet another process influencing people’s well-being is coastal erosion as an effect of
increased storminess and average wave heights (steadily increasing in last 30-yrs)
Observations have indicated that intensive erosion has occurred at many places like the
beaches situated on open coasts of Southern Baltic + in Latvia long term cliff erosion has
occurred. On the other hand temperature increase and economic changes cause a surge of
tourism and developers to the coastline and increased urbanization of the shores. While the
public tends to vote for “natural shores”, the developers fight for local sea-coast
municipalities with future profits.
9.
Wywiad (w zaleŜności od nakręconego materiału) nt. Wpływu erozji na działalność
gospodarczą człowieka (15-50 sekund)
INTERVIEW (possibly erosion influencing coastal business)
10. Wnioski. Tekst dla lektora:
A warming of the mean annual temperature in the order of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius is projected
for the total basin during this century. Winters are projected to become wetter and summers
drier especially in the southern areas. Changes in water temperature, water balance,
circulation and salinity associated with climate change are expected to have further impacts
on the sea biological processes and thus on tourism, aquaculture, fisheries, and everyday
living of people. Slowing down the climate warming process and adapting to the inevitable
changes is a must for all governments but also for us all.
Some uncertainties in further impacts of climate change have to be acknowledged. The
questions about the extent of the climate changes, its hazardous consequences and whether the
Earth with the exploited marine ecosystems will be able to sustain growing human population
at a high standard of living for all is still unclear. A more detailed assessment of future natural
and anthropogenic climate change in the Baltic Sea basin and following socio-economic
consequences requires further studies, data analysis, and that is an ambitious task for science.