Office market - Zarzadcy.com.pl

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2013 | POLAND | OFFICE MARKET
Office market
OVERVIEW
TRENDS Q4 2013
SUPPLY
• At the end of September 2013 the total supply of modern office space in nine major
markets in Poland amounted to 6.24 million m2.
DEMAND
• New supply delivered to the market reached 161,500 m2, which was an increase of
31% in comparison to the corresponding period of 2012.
RENTS
• Tenants' activity in Q3 amounted to ca. 250,000 m2. Pre-let agreements constituted a
significant share in the total transaction volume (37%).
VACANCY
• Rental rates remained unchanged in Q3 2013.
Source: Colliers International
• At the end of Q3 2013 the overall vacancy rate for major office markets stood at
11.4%.
SUPPLY OF OFFICE SPACE
Q3 2013
CITY
Warsaw
SUPPLY
TOTAL STOCK
(m2)
VACANCY
(%)
4,071,500
10.9
Kraków
501,000
3.3
Wrocław
442,000
13.8
Tricity
333,300
12.8
Poznań
263,400
14.2
Łódź
232,200
19.5
Katowice
218,300
9.3
Szczecin
92,800
23.1
Source: Colliers International
TAKE-UP STRUCTURE IN WARSAW
Q3 2013
14%
6%
54%
26%
New deals
Renegotiations and Renewals
Expansions
Owner-occupied space
Source: Colliers International
TAKE-UP IN WARSAW (in thous. m2)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Colliers International
3 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
• Warsaw – at the end of Q3 2013 the total supply of modern office space amounted to
4.07 million m2, 70% (2.81 mln m2) of which was located outside the city center. From
July to September, six projects totalling 94,300 m2 were delivered to the market. The
largest investments completed during the period included: Miasteczko Orange
(43,700 m2, South West), Wola Center (27,500 m2, West ) and Żoliborz One
(8,700 m2, North).
• Regional cities – the total supply of modern office space in eight major regional
markets amounted to 2.1 million m2. In Q3 2013, developers completed projects of a
total area of 70,000 m2. The highest growth in stock was noted in Poznań (14,700 m2),
Kraków (13,600 m2), and Wrocław (13,300 m2). Office buildings completed in Q3
included: Malta House (14,700 m2, Poznań), Quattro Business Park C (12,200 m2,
Kraków), Lastadia (11,500 m2, Szczecin) and the first phase of West House 1B
(6,000 m2, Wrocław).
DEMAND
• Warsaw – demand for office space recorded in Q3 2013 amounted to 184,600 m2,
which was the best result since the beginning of 2013. New lease agreements
constituted 54% (99,200m2) of the registered activity. The share of pre-let transactions
in the total volume reached the level of 37.3%. The highest level of tenants’ activity
was recorded in the following zones: Upper South (74,000 m2), West (26,900 m2) and
South West (23,700 m2). The average deal size in the city centre was 704 m2, while
outside the city center it accounted for 1,307 m2. The biggest agreements signed
during the discussed period included: Polkomtel (pre-let, 22,600 m2, Konstruktorska 4),
BZ WBK (pre-let, 11,800 m2, Atrium 1), Sygma (renegotiation / extension, 6,400 m2,
Trinity Park) and Sanofi-Aventis (renegotiation / renewal, 5,500 m2, North Gate).
• Regional cities – the total leasing activity registered in Q3 2013 is estimated at a level
of ca. 65,000 m2. The share of new agreements amounted to 74%, while
renegotiations / renewals reached 15%. Expansions of the current tenants constituted
11% of the recorded demand. Similar to Warsaw office market, pre-let agreements
constituted an important share (37%). The strongest tenants’ activity was recorded in
Katowice, Kraków and Poznań. The largest lease transactions concluded in Q3
included: IBM in A4 Business Park (pre-let, 9,000 m2, Katowice), Eurobank in
Wratislavia Center (renegotiation / renewal, 6,100 m2, Wrocław), ING Services Polska
in GPP Business Park (pre-let, 5,600 m2, Katowice) and BPH in the Avia office building
(pre-let, 3,100 m2, Kraków).
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2013 | POLAND | OFFICE MARKET
VACANCY
MAJOR REGIONAL CITIES
BY TAKE-UP SHARE
Q3 2013
• Warsaw – at the end of Q3 2013, the vacancy rate for all Warsaw office zones stood
at 10.9% (against 8.1% at the end of September 2012). The vacancy in the central
zones amounted to 10.5%. In case of non-central locations the vacancy rate
accounted for 11%. The highest rates were recorded in the South-West (13.6%), West
(13.1%) and North (12.5%) zones.
15.1%
24.9%
3.9%
• Regional cities – similar to previous quarter, the lowest vacancy rate was registered
in Kraków (3.3%). The highest rates were recorded in Szczecin (23.1%) and Łódź
(19.5%).
8.0%
RENTS
21.4%
19.8%
6.9%
Katowice
Kraków
Łódź
Poznań
Szczecin
Tricity
Wrocław
Source: Colliers International
SELCTED LEASE TRANSACTIONS
Q3 2013
TENANT
AREA
(m2)
BUILDING
BZ WBK
11,800
Atrium 1
Warsaw
Sanofi-Aventis
5,490
North Gate
Warsaw
TBWA Group
2,230
R34
Warsaw
Newell
Rubbermaid
1,900
Andersia BC
Poznań
CHRobinson
1,160
Aquarius BH
Wrocław
Inoffice
1,000
Horizon Plaza
Warsaw
Medicover
1,000
Olivia BC
Tricity
Source: Colliers International
AVERAGE RENTAL RATES
MIN.
(EUR/m2)
MAX.
(EUR/m2)
17.00
25.00
12.00
16.00
Kraków
13.00
15.00
Wrocław
11.00
16.00
Tricity
12.75
15.00
Poznań
13.00
16.00
Katowice
12.00
14.00
Łódź
11.50
13.50
Szczecin
10.50
14.00
CITY
Warsaw:
City Centre
Warsaw:
outside City Centre
Source: Colliers International
4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
• Warsaw – in Q3 2013, the rents for office space remained stable. The asking rents in
the city centre varied from EUR 17 to 25/m2 per month. Rental rates in non-central
zones stood between EUR 12 and 16 EUR/m2 per month.
• Regional cities – rental rates in regional markets recorded no significant changes.
The average rents ranged from EUR 11 to EUR 16/m2 per month. The highest rents
were recorded in Poznań (EUR 13-16/m2 per month) and Wrocław (EUR 11-16/m2 per
month). With the average rents at a level of EUR 11.5-13.5/m2 per month, Łódź
remained the most competitive market in terms of rental costs.
FORECAST
• At present, over 1 million m2 of office space is under construction. Ca. 550,000 m2 is
being constructed in Warsaw. Among regional cities, the strongest construction activity
is observed in Kraków (129,200 m2), Wrocław (88,500 m2), Katowice (73,000 m2) and
Tricity (70,300 m2).
• In Q4 2013, the office stock will grow by 150,000 m2. Ca. 43% of new supply will be
delivered to the Warsaw office market. The biggest investments that are going to be
completed in the capital are Plac Unii (41,300 m2) and Oxygen Park II (8,900 m2). In
case of regional cities, the largest increase in stock will be recorded in Wrocław,
Kraków and Tricity.
• The overall vacancy rate will continue an upward trend. Due to relocations of the
current tenants to newly completed schemes, a rise in vacancy in older office buildings
is expected.
• Rental rates are forecasted to demonstrate a slight downward tendency in the
upcoming months.